Race of the Week: Sam F. Davis
Saturday February 9th: Race 11 at Tampa Bay Downs. The $250,000 Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:25 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
{A note a all readers: Today marks the debut of the Race of the Week series in its new home at The Daily Gallop. I am looking forward to providing all of my followers and fans of this column continued quality coverage of stakes races across the country throughout the year. A number of new features that hopefully will enhance this column and The Daily Gallop website as a whole are in the works to be rolled out in the coming weeks. If you do not already follow the site on social media (Twitter: @TheDailyGallop) or any of its amazing co-founders, I would heartily encourage you to do so. Now let’s go ahead and dive in to the analysis for this rather intriguing field of ten three year olds set to contest the Sam F. Davis stakes with potential points towards the 2019 Kentucky Derby on the line. Two items regarding this race bear mentioning. First over the past ten editions of the Sam F. Davis, the winner has either won or finished second in their most recent start at a track other than Tampa Bay. Additionally, in four of the past five years the winner has displayed a pace-stalking running style as they have sat two or more lengths back early on while the initial pace-setters in this race, Flameaway last year being the lone exception, have finished second through fourth. So please keep that in mind when considering potential runners to wager on.}
Selections: 6-7-3
(6) Kentucky Wildcat: One of two homebred entrants in the field for His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum’s Godolphin, this son of Tapit will be making a major step up in class on Saturday as he takes on stakes company for the first time in his short career. Exquisitely bred, Kentucky Wildcat is out of a Ghostzapper mare, Better Lucky, who was in her own right an extremely accomplished multiple Grade 1 winner on turf as well as runner up in the 2014 Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) on dirt. Thus Kentucky Wildcat’s pedigree is quite suited to allow him to contest eight and a half furlongs on Saturday as well as it should allow him to race even further going forward. Kentucky Wildcat did not break his maiden until his third start of his two year old campaign when he bested a field of $70K Maidens back on December 1st when racing a one turn mile at Aqueduct. The runner-up in that race, Country House, has already run again and won, breaking his maiden in impressive fashion at Gulfstream Park last month and he has the potential to be an absolute monster going forward. Although Kentucky Wildcat only earned a 90 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) for his half-length victory in that most recent effort, TimeForm US was a bit more forgiving as they awarded him a 117 speed figure, which absolutely towers over the entire field’s last out speed figures. Furthermore, when looking at both his TimeForm and Beyer Speed Figures, Kentucky Wildcat has improved in each and every start and on paper alone would appear to be the horse to beat in this race. However, according to Brisnet, it appears that Kentucky Wildcat may have “bounced” in his third start as his initial BSR was a 68 then increased to a 93 and then after a two month layoff, regressed slightly to his most recent 90. However, this could potentially work in his favor as that means that it is more than likely that Kentucky Wildcat should continue to improve going forward and could be in line for a career best number on Saturday.
Through his first three races, Kentucky Wildcat has displayed an off-the-pace running style, in which he is usually taken back early on and then encouraged to rally late as the field turns into the stretch. Such a running style seems perfectly well suited for the projected pace scenario in this year’s edition of the Sam F. Davis given the abundance of runners entered that have shown good early speed in past starts. With such a plethora of horses that would prefer to be forwardly placed early on, that should likely lead to fast initial fractions (the TimeForm Pace Projector would agree with that assessment) and could potentially allow the race then to set up quite well for a mid-pack runner like Kentucky Wildcat. It is very encouraging to see trainer Thomas Albertrani decide to keep jockey Joe Bravo in the irons for this race as the familiarity between horse and jockey should be a major asset on Saturday. Look for Bravo once again to take back this colt early on and rate behind a fast pace before moving up to get within striking distance as the field turns for home. Over the past year, Bravo has been riding quite well in route races having won 24% of his past 123 starts. Additionally, Kentucky Wildcat has been putting together some very solid works over the Palm Meadows training track since his most recent start and despite the more than two month layoff appears to be in fine form heading into this race. Saturday does mark Kentucky Wildcat’s first time ever on the track at Tampa Bay so watch how he handles the surface in the post parade to have a better idea as to how he is taking to the track. If Kentucky Wildcat can handle his first attempt at a two-turn route race and this step up into graded stakes company, then he appears to be a legitimate contender to secure 10 points towards the Kentucky Derby and possibly could be Godolphin’s first ever winner in the Run for the Roses.
(7) Five Star General: The barn of trainer Arnaud Delacour sends out this son of Distorted Humor for connections WinStar Farm, China Horse Club International, and SF Racing, which coincidentally is nearly the same partnership that campaigned Triple-Crown winner Justify last year. Although Saturday does mark the first time taking on graded stakes company and the first attempt at two-turns for this young colt, Five Star General has already proven himself to be quite capable against stakes company when he beat an off-the-turf field in the $100K Central Park Stakes (Listed) over a mile at Aqueduct back on November 22nd. It is not exactly clear how quality that field was but given the fact that Five Star General still won that race in gate to wire fashion, that effort was nonetheless impressive. Furthermore it is quite likely that he has already bounced in his short career as he earned a 64 BSR in his debut before improving to an 88 BSR over a sloppy mile at Laurel before finally regressing to his most recent figure of an 84 BSR. TimeForm US did award him a 107 speed figure for that race and his opening and middle speed figures in that effort were actually quite fast. It appears that after a less than impressive debut when sprinting six furlongs back at Parx in September, the addition of blinkers and the stretch-out to a mile may have unlocked this colt’s true potential. If he can continue to progress from that most recent effort, then he certainly will be quite dangerous on Saturday.
As mentioned previously, nearly half this field has shown the ability to run on or near the lead in past starts and Five Star General is one of those runners. In fact, he has nearly led from gate to wire each of the fields in his last two starts. Given his predilection for racing on the front end, it would only be natural to presume that Five Star General would want to race that way once again on Saturday. However, there are two runners drawn to both his inside and outside that will likely send from the get go and that could potentially leave Five Star General in a rather precarious situation as the field enters the first turn: he might find himself embroiled in an instantaneous speed duel and may get jostled around as those outside runners attempt to avoid getting caught wide going into the turn. Rather it would behoove his jockey, Jose Ortiz, to take Five Star General back a bit after the initial break and rate just off of the pace-setters. In doing so, Ortiz should be able to conserve his mount’s speed and stamina and thus allow Five Star General to relax a bit early on before moving into an optimal position as the field enters the stretch. It is quite telling that although Ortiz has yet to ride in a race at Tampa Bay, he obviously thinks highly enough of this colt to eschew potentially better mounts at Aqueduct or Gulfstream and ride here on Saturday. Although Five Star General has not run in over two months, over the past three years Delacour has done quite well with getting runners into the winner’s circle following layoffs of 46-90 days as he has been winning at a 22% rate from 196 starts. Moreover, Five Star General, despite never having raced over the Tampa Bay surface before, has been training extraordinarily well over it as his last four works were absolute bullets. In order for Five Star General to have the best possible chance for success on Saturday, Ortiz will need to be quite tactical in terms of how he approaches the initial stages of this race. If this colt can handle the step up in class and not become involved in an unnecessary speed duel early on, then he has an excellent shot at winning and at 4-1 on the Morning Line is worthy of inclusion in all exotic wagers as an on top play.
(3) Knicks Go: Trainer Ben Colebrook sends out this son of Paynter for KRA Stud Farm as he makes his three year old campaign debut on Saturday. Already the most experienced graded stakes runner in the field, he has contested four graded stakes races in six starts thus far. Knicks Go burst onto the racing scene when he absolutely demolished the field in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1) over eight and a half furlongs at Keeneland back on October 6th as he won the race in gate to wire fashion. Prior to that race, his best effort had come in $75K Arlington-Washington Futurity over seven furlongs on the Polytrack at Arlington Park when he finished a distant third to Big Drink of Water. Knicks Go’s effort in the Breeders’ Futurity secured him a berth in the Breeders’ Cup Sentient Jet Juvenile (G1) at Churchill Downs the following month. Despite hopping at the start, Knicks Go was able to recover quickly and at one point was actually in the lead before finally being run down in the stretch by Game Winner. For his efforts, he earned a career best 100 BSR, which ranks as the second fastest speed figure amongst the field for eight and a half furlongs. However, in his most recent effort, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) run over 1 1/16 miles at Churchill Downs, three weeks after the Breeders’ Cup, Knicks Go bounced terribly. Whether he didn’t take to the sloppy surface or his past five races had simply caught up to him, Knicks Go put in an awful performance, earning a 73 BSR for his efforts. In fact, TimeForm US has him regressing from a 111 speed figure to a 95 in that two race span. Following that disastrous showing, Colebrook gave Knicks Go nearly two months off before returning him to training and if he can somehow return to the form that he displayed in his two best efforts during last fall, Knicks Go could very well be the one to beat in this race.
Knicks Go is amongst the bevy of runners entered into this field that have shown a preference in past efforts for being forwardly placed, either on or near the early lead. As such it would be no surprise to see him be up front early on once again, though that may not be the best position for Knicks Go to be in especially if his connections have any aspirations of winning this race. The horse that is drawn just to his inside, Going for Gold, is a sprinter plain and simple and as such will likely be sent from the get go along with several other runners drawn to Knicks Go’s outside which should result in a fast pace evolving. If Knicks Go decides to join these other runners on the front that could potentially lead to his downfall as he will likely face heavy pressure from multiple rivals battling to control the pace and this could cause him to be worn out far too early in the race such that he is not able to repel any major challenges for the lead, presuming he is able to secure it. Rather it appears that Knicks Go’s best chance at being able to win this race would come if his jockey, Albin Jimenez, is able to get him to rate early on and sit just off the flank of Going for Gold. That would then allow him to be in the most opportune position to strike when his rival begins to fade and then he could potentially take over the race at that point. This will be Jimenez’s fourth race in a row onboard Knicks Go so the familiarity between jockey and horse could be quite beneficial. Additionally, Jimenez has been riding well in route races over the past year as he has won 18% of his past 164 starts. However, Knicks Go has not raced competitively in over two months and Colebrook has been winning at just a 9% rate with runners returning from 46-90 day layoffs. Furthermore, Knicks Go has yet to contest a race over the Tampa Bay surface although he has been working incredibly well over it since returning to training in the middle of January as it’s fairly obvious his connections have had this race in mind for a long time. Knicks Go could be a legitimate contender in this race if he can find a way to return to those brilliant efforts he put together back in the fall in Kentucky, but whether or not that will occur on Saturday is a major question mark. This colt has the potential to run well on Saturday but at 5-2 on the Morning Line and as his most recent effort was truly bad, he is just too difficult to endorse as a top play in this race; although he still must be respected and considered for use underneath.
If there is one runner to consider for use as a potential underneath play in this race it is the (8) So Alive, a half-brother to Vino Rosso trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden on Saturday by Javier Castellano. He is one of only two runners in this field with a win over the surface at Tampa Bay and does possess a preferred pace-stalking running style. Pletcher has yet to have any of his three year olds run well in a Derby prep race this year, so obviously there are high expectations for this son of Super Saver. Although So Alive does move up in class from his most recent effort, a $75K Optional Claiming race that he won here at Tampa back on January 6th, he has been training quite well over at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher and appears to be in good form coming into this race. He is a bit light on the speed figures, as his career best is an 89 BSR he earned racing over a mile and 40 yards in his last out effort, and he would thus have to take a major step forward in order to have a chance on Saturday. However, Pletcher has done well over the past three years with runners that won their last race as he has been winning at a 25% rate (from 947 starts) and finishing in the money 55% of the time. Furthermore, having Castellano (19% win rate from 211 route race starts) return to ride is always an encouraging sign. If So Alive can remain near his 5-1 Morning Line odds then he certainly may be worthy of a look for inclusion underneath in exotic wagers.