This is one of four grade 1 races on the card. The defending champion, Rushing Fall, is back as a heavy morning line favorite, and she’s facing seven foes looking to dethrone her.
1. Secret Message: She started off her four year old campaign with back to back wins in the Dahlia at Laurel and the Nassau at Woodbine, before finishing a troubled trip 4th in the Grade 1 Diana. She went off form for her last two races last year. She started off this year in the Grade 3 Mint Julep and pulled off the upset at 25-1. There’s reason to believe she can move forward of her last start.
2. Juliet Foxtrot: She’s coming off a solid four year old campaign, where she hit the board in two grade one stakes races, including a second place finish to Uni in the First Lady here in October, beating Rushing Fall. She’s been in front in the stretch in her last four tries, but has failed to finish the job each time. It’ll be interesting to see if Luis Saez can time his move a little better with her.
3. La Signare: Like the first two runners, she too, prepped for this race in the Mint Julep last out. Ricardo Santana rode her for the first time, and he had her flying late to just miss the win at a big number. She’ll have to take another sizeable step forward to beat these today.
4. Rushing Fall: She’s been a regular fixture here, competing at every meet since Fall 2017. She also knows how to find the Winner’s Circle here, winning four out of five career races here, including this race last year. She’s versatile enough to win on the front end or come from off the pace. While she is the most likely winner, she’s not a lock as she has been beaten by both Juliet Foxtrot and Toinette in the past (2 of only 5 horses who have ever finished in front of her). She’s not an easy horse to pass, but I found her effort in the First Lady intriguing last year. Uni had more momentum when Rushing Fall started to make her move at the top of the stretch. When Uni went by, she flattened out. It will take a perfectly timed ride to pass her.
5. Mucho Unusual: She’s one of two California invaders coming east to try to take down this group. She closed well to be third in the Gamely at 9 Furlongs last time. She is an improving four year old filly that could have a better chance closing on this course than she did closing on the Santa Anita turf course. Leparoux picking up the mount is a plus here.
6. Jolie Olimpica: She’s accomplished a lot in 6 career starts, winning five of her first six, including a Group 1 win in Brazil. She joined the Mandella barn and made her North American debut in January sprinting at 5 ½, winning the Las Cinegas easily. Mandella thinks she’ll be better at longer distances, but her lone defeat was at 1 Mile in graded stakes company. Her last was really good and looked even better when Oleksandra came east to beat the boys in the Grade 1 Jaipur. She deserves a shot here to see if races like the Mile or the Filly and Mare turf are within reach for her, or if she should stick with sprinting. She’s a cool horse and has a ton of upside, but I’m not willing to take 5-2 on a shipper trying to get three more furlongs than she did in her most recent try.
7. Altea: It’s interesting to see here in this spot, as she’s clearly not in Chad Brown’s top flight of turf fillies. She’s never won a stakes race, only winning a maiden race overseas and a N1X allowance spot at Aqueduct last fall. She’s a tough sell for me in this race.
8. Toinette: She won her seasonal debut last month in the Wilshire, which looked more like a paid workout for her. She’ll need to improve in her second start of the year to beat this field, which I think she will. She had success shipping to Kentucky as a three year old, winning in allowance company here, then beating Rushing Fall in the Edgewood. She’s an 8 time winner and, in my opinion, the most likely horse to challenge Rushing Fall.
My Picks: 8-4-1
Keeneland 7/11/2020, Race 9: The Grade 2 Toyota Blue Grass, 1 Mile and 1/8
This race drew a big field of horses scrambling to gain Derby points to get in to the starting gate on the first Saturday in September. I see this race as a battle between an accomplished filly and a few late blooming three year olds that could have an impact here.
1. Shivaree: He’s a Florida invader who has run pretty well in his last two starts finishing in front of Fountain of Youth winner, Ete Indien both times. Nicks has done a good job of getting this one to grow into a real nice Florida bred, but I suspect he’s in a little deep, and being asked to travel a little further than he wants to go.
2. Finnick The Fierce: He was a respectable third in the saltier of the two divisions of the Arkansas Derby. He came back in an optional claiming allowance race at Churchill and was no match for Art Collector that day. This is probably a reach for him.
3. Art Collector: He’s the only owner of a triple digit Beyer figure in the field, which came in his first ever two turn dirt start. You could say he had an easy lead last out, and benefitted from setting a soft pace, and you’d be right. That being said, he won from off the pace in his previous two starts while sprinting, so I believe he can run from anywhere. I’m a bit concerned about a bounce, but I think this one is very dangerous.
4. Mr. Big News: He was last seen at Oaklawn in April, upsetting the Oaklawn Invitational Stakes field at 46-1. He closed a ton in the slop that day and he may get a favorable pace scenario again today. However, I’m going to need a lot more than 10-1 (M/L) to back him because I don’t think he’s on the same level right now as others in this field.
5. Man In The Can: This Arkansas bred opened some eyes after beating a decent field of older state bred stakes foes in May at Oaklawn. He followed up that effort with an off the pace score against open allowance foes at Churchill, beating Ohio Derby winner, Dean Martini. He’s paired his Beyers in his first two career route races, so it’s feasible that he could take another step forward today.
6. Hard Lightning: He was beaten seven lengths in the optional claiming/allowance race at Gulfstream that featured Shivaree, Sole Volante, and Ete Indien. With all of those looking for races out of town, this one would be likely be better served staying home and looking for a local allowance race to continue his progression.
7. Swiss Skydiver: She looks to be the first filly to win this race, and she’ll likely be favored to do so. Her last three races against fillies have been very impressive. I like the aggressive placement, as she opted for Derby points instead of being favored in a Grade 1 race for fillies on this card. She’s an exciting filly to root for as a fan, but I’ll be trying to beat her as a bettor.
8. Basin: Last year’s winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful has not had the three year old campaign his connections have hoped for. I think they’re looking to take one more shot to see if he’s really a Derby contender, but I think he’s better suited for one turn races like the Allen Jerkens or the Pat Day Mile. I’ll pass on him today.
9. Attachment Rate: He’s been running competitive races in stakes company, facing the likes of Maxfield and Dr. Post. The problem is that he’s been putting forth the same effort each time without really taking significant steps forward. He does reunite with Luis Saez, who has had success with him.
10. Rushie: The only horses that beat him this year are Charlatan, Honor A.P., and Authentic, so he’s been competitive against good company. He looks like he is progressing into a late blooming Derby candidate after a decent third in the Santa Anita Derby. I don’t love that Castellano is the 6th different jockey to ride him in his 6th career start, and I’m not crazy about his draw. That being said, he’s worked well since his last race and I’m expecting another strong effort from him today.
11. Hunt The Front: He finally put things together and broke his maiden in a 9 Furlong race at Oaklawn on closing day. In his first start against winners, he was beaten over 11 lengths by Man in the Can. Off of his latest effort, he seems overmatched here.
12. Enforceable: He’s been on the shelf since the Louisiana Derby, where he was an uninspiring 5th place. He’s been a bit unlucky, getting wide draws in his previous three starts, and then again today. He’s as well-bred as anyone in the field, but it seems his best chance is hitting the bottom of the exotics.
13. Tiesto: This is an interesting spot to make his first career start on dirt, as four career tries for him have been on the grass. He was really good in the Palm Beach two starts back. He was away for three months and was a little short in his return in an allowance race at Churchill. He’s another closer with a tricky post. I get taking a shot at trying to get your $600,000 purchase into the Derby, but I’ll be watching this one today.
My Picks: 10-3-7