Saturday March 2nd: Race 13 at Gulfstream Park. The $400,000 Grade 2 Xpressbet Fountain of Youth Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:32 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
The Fountain of Youth Stakes was inaugurated back in 1945. It is named after the mythical spring said to offer up eternal life that was sought after by Spanish explorer Ponce de Leon. The race became a Grade 3 Stakes race back in 1973, was upgraded to a Grade 2 in 1982 and has kept that designation since then, except for a brief period of time between 1999-2003 when it was listed as a Grade 1. The Fountain of Youth Stakes has been run at distances as short as a mile and as long as a mile and an eighth but for the majority of its life, it has been run at its current distance of a mile and a sixteenth. Five horses that won the Fountain of Youth: Tim Tam (1958), Kauai King (1966), Spectacular Bid (1979), Thunder Gulch (1995), and Orb (2013) have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Overall 13 runners who have contested the Fountain of Youth have gone on to win the Run for the Roses.
The main track at Gulfstream Park is notoriously speed friendly, and as such over the past 16 editions of this race, seven Fountain of Youth winners wired the field (Promises Fulfilled being the most recent one to do it last year), four horses were pace pressers, three were closers, and the remaining two settled mid-pack early on. Additionally, eight of the last ten Fountain of Youth winners prepared for this race in a previous prep race at Gulfstream Park. However, only two of the last ten winners made their three year old debut in this race (which is bad news for the likes of Vekoma and Signalman). Additionally, three of the last ten champions did not win their most recent start although every single one of the last ten Fountain of Youth victors finished third or better in the race leading up to the Fountain of Youth.
1. Code of Honor: [Noble Mission-Dixie Union; Shug McGaughey/John Velazquez; 6-1; 3-1-1-0]
Code of Honor will be stretching out to a two-turn route for the first time in his career following a rather disappointing fourth place finish in the one mile $100K Mucho Macho Man Stakes (Listed) back on January 5th here at Gulfstream. Two of the horses that beat him that day (Mihos and Garterandtie) have since gone on to run and resulted in them finishing fifth and sixth in the Holy Bull Stakes (G2) last month. The 91 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) that Code of Honor earned in his most recent effort (TimeForm gave him a 108 speed rating) pales in comparison to many of his rivals’ most recent speed figures and thus he will have to improve in order to be competitive on Saturday. Through his first three career races, Code of Honor has displayed three different running styles: that of a pace-setter (he broke his maiden in gate to wire fashion), that of a deep closer (in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes last October), and then most recently as a mid-pack stalker. Thus it is somewhat unclear as to which running style Code of Honor will employ on Saturday, but given the fact that he has drawn the rail (which has been winning at a 19% clip), he has veteran jockey John Velazquez aboard, and there is plenty of early speed entered into this field, it would be no surprise to see this colt save ground along the rail whilst stalking the field early on before trying to move up and challenge for the lead as the field turns for home. Code of Honor’s recent works over at Payson Park have been solid enough but not particularly flashy. If he stays around his Morning Line odds of 6-1, he may offer value to bettors that want to take a shot in this race by going against the heavy favorites. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
2. Epic Dreamer: [Orb-Dixieland Band; Kelly Breen/Tyler Gaffalione; 20-1; 4-1-1-0]
This colt ran a very solid effort last time out, leading the field in the Holy Bull nearly the entire length of the race before getting caught and passed in the deep stretch at Gulfstream, such that he had to settle for fourth (beaten by just two and a quarter lengths). He earned a 92 BSR for that performance whilst TimeForm awarded him a 110 speed figure for setting a blistering early pace. Epic Dreamer has good early speed and thus it would be no surprise to see him forwardly placed once again on Saturday trying to dictate the initial pace of the race; however, there are several other runners drawn to his outside that will likely have the same idea and thus Epic Dreamer will probably be facing heavy pace pressure from the get go. His most recent work over at the training track at Palm Meadows was quite sharp so he should be in fine form coming into this race. However, it is notable that Irad Ortiz hops off to ride another in this field and Breen has only won once in 36 starts thus far during the current meet at Gulfstream. This assembled field is even stronger than the one he last faced in the Holy Bull and as such it appears that he might be more than overmatched in this race, despite that front-running style. TOSS
3. Gladiator King: [Curlin-Hennessy; Jaime Mejia/Jorge Solorzano; 50-1; 10-3-1-1]
Saturday’s race will mark the 11th lifetime start for this colt and if his recent efforts suggest anything, it’s that he would be much better suited to sprinting on the turf rather than trying to route on the dirt. The connections wheel him back in just seven days after a third place effort last Saturday in the five furlong Texas Glitter Stakes (Listed) on the grass at Gulfstream. While Gladiator King has shown good early speed in a number of his past efforts (especially when sprinting) and figures to be a part of the pace presence on Saturday, he has encountered trouble in a variety of forms in each of his last four starts. Moreover, he has yet to even come close to hitting the board in three dirt starts at Gulfstream Park. Overall it’s hard to envision anything other than a repeat performance of his Holy Bull effort when he finished ninth, 28 lengths up the track behind Harvey Wallbanger. TOSS
4. Bourbon War: [Tapit-Artie Schiller; Mark Hennig/Irad Ortiz Jr; 10-1; 3-2-0-0]
Although Bourbon War will be stepping up in class on Saturday, back to graded stakes competition, he ran quite well when besting a field of $75K Optional Claimers at a mile and a sixteenth last month here at Gulfstream Park. He earned a 96 BSR for that effort whilst TimeForm bestowed upon him a 109 speed rating. Although those figures are a bit low and considering he will likely have to improve again on Saturday in order to be competitive, he does appear to fit in well versus this field. Now generally young progeny of Tapit have a tendency to be a bit headstrong and seem to have difficulty figuring out how to split horses (i.e. get through traffic) in races; this is not the case with Bourbon War as he managed to accomplish this feat with ease in that last out effort. His running style is that of a mid-pack stalker and given that he has two horses drawn to his inside that possess good early speed, there will likely be enough room for him to move over after breaking from the gates and tuck in along or close to the rail such that he can save ground throughout the race. Over the past seven days of racing Irad Ortiz has been absolutely on fire posting a line of 59-15-14-9 (25% win rate and 64% in the money rate) and thus it should be of great benefit to Bourbon War to have this jockey back in the irons on Saturday. Although Mark Hennig has won just once in 25 starts so far at Gulfstream, this colt has been working out quite solidly for him and as such has a very good chance to win on Saturday. His 10-1 Morning Line odds likely will not materialize, yet he will certainly offer value in the 5-1 to 7-1 range. LIVE LONGSHOT
5. Vekoma: [Candy Ride-Speightstown; George Weaver/Manuel Franco; 7/2; 2-2-0-0]
Vekoma will be making his three year old debut on Saturday after having last been seen capturing the one-turn mile Nashua Stakes (G3) last November at Aqueduct by nearly two lengths. He earned a 101 BSR (which ranks as the second highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field behind Hidden Scroll) as well as a 116 TimeForm speed rating. Vekoma does possess good tactical speed and as result will likely tuck in behind the initial pace-setters and rate if the pace is moderate to fast early on; however, if the initial fractions are a bit more pedestrian, this colt certainly has the ability to move up and dictate the pace if needed. His pedigree is a bit of a concern as not only will this be his first attempt at a two-turn route distance but his dam is out of Speightstown (a well-regarded sprinter) and thus if Vekoma gets into a speed duel in the latter portion of this race he may not have enough stamina to outlast his rivals. Additionally although this colt has been posting solid works over the training track at Palm Beach, over the past two years Weaver has gone 0-8 with runners attempting to come back after layoffs of 88-148 days. That is more than enough cause to be concerned about Vekoma’s chances in this race and that it perhaps why Weaver has decided to use Lasix for the first time in order to give his runner an extra boost. If Vekoma remains around his 7/2 Morning Line odds, he will offer value in this race and if he can fire off the long layoff, he has every right to win on Saturday; however, proceed with caution when considering to use him in this race and pay particular attention to his appearance and body movements when in the paddock and on the track for the post parade. WIN CONTENDER
6. Signalman: [General Quarter-Trippi; Kenny McPeek/Brian Hernandez Jr; 9/2; 5-2-2-1]
Signalman has not been seen since finishing first by a neck over Plus Que Parfait over a sloppy eight and a half furlongs in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November at Churchill Downs. Although this colt is one of the more experienced runners in the field at a mile and a sixteenth, has finished in the money in all five starts and earned a 95 BSR (110 TimeForm speed rating) chasing very swift initial fractions in that KyJC, that last race has not come back strong at all. The second and third place runners (Plus Que Parfait and Limonite) have both struggled in all of their 2019 efforts. Additionally, Signalman has not raced competitively in 98 days and over the past two years McPeek has gone 1-27 with runners coming back in route races off of layoffs of that type. Furthermore, Signalman has yet to contest a race over the surface at Gulfstream and his recent works suggest he may need this race before getting back into form. Although there is the possibility that Signalman could surprise and hit the board on Saturday, this column will be taking a stand against him. TOSS
7. Hidden Scroll: [Hard Spun-Empire Maker; Bill Mott/Joel Rosario; 9/5; 1-1-0-0]
The Bill Mott trainee absolutely dominated a 13 horse field when contesting a sloppy one-turn mile at Gulfstream in a $60K Maiden race at the end of January. He took the lead shortly after the start, gradually widened the separation between himself and the rest of the field and was eventually geared down by his pilot, Joel Rosario, as he ended up winning by 14 lengths. For that impressive performance he earned a 102 BSR as well as a 121 TimeForm speed figure, which is actually one of the best figures that a three year old has ever earned in the first half of the year. As a son of Hard Spun, Hidden Scroll should certainly have enough stamina to be able to stretch out an extra furlong, although this will be his first time contesting a two-turn route. Additionally whilst Bill Mott is not exactly known for his prowess in winning a high percentage of races with runners making their racing debuts, he usually spots his charges well in races and thus bettors should have confidence in his decision making that this race is indeed the right spot for such a precocious colt. There are two major issues to take note of though when considering Hidden Scroll’s chances in this race. First and foremost, his lone start and romp came over a sloppy surface which given his pedigree, he likely had an instant affinity for; yet, he will encounter a dry, fast track for the first time on Saturday. Secondly, in that career debut, Hidden Scroll was never challenged on the lead, though this edition of the Fountain of Youth will be an entirely different matter as there are several other runners entered into this field (drawn to both his inside and outside) that will likely want to be forwardly placed as well and could provide heavy pace pressure. Thus in order to be successful on Saturday, Hidden Scroll will need to not only step way up in class but also demonstrate that the performance in his debut was not simply a fluke in which he took advantage of a weak field and ideal (to him) track conditions. At 9/5 on the Morning Line, this colt will be incredibly hard to endorse as a stand alone winner as he does not offer much value. Yet that debut and the connections need to be respected, so only use Hidden Scroll defensively in this race. WIN CONTENDER
8. Global Campaign: [Curlin-A.P. Indy; Stanley Hough/Luis Saez; 10-1; 2-2-0-0]
The half-brother to Bolt d’Oro will make his stakes debut on Saturday after having previously easily won his first two lifetime starts over the surface at Gulfstream. In each of the races, Global Campaign sat just off of the pace early on, stalking the leaders, before seizing command of the race with a decisive move down the stretch and then winning handily at the wire. The chart callers’ comments for each of those efforts indicate that he was wrapped up at the end by jockey Luis Saez which may explain why his speed figures regressed slightly from a 96 BSR (111 TimeForm speed rating) at seven furlongs to a 92 BSR (109 TimeForm speed rating) at eight and a half furlongs. Whatever the case may be, by all accounts it appears that Global Campaign should fit well into this race, especially considering the number of bullet works he has been firing off over the training track at Palm Meadows. Even though this colt is drawn a bit wide in this field, which is not ideal for a track with such a short run up to the first turn like Gulfstream Park is laid out, if Saez can get Global Campaign to break well from the gates and then tuck in just behind the initial leaders, he should be able to avoid be strung out wide going into that turn and instead will likely be in an ideal stalking position. This colt’s pedigree is absolutely loaded with stamina and as such he should have no trouble outlasting his rivals if he gets into a potential speed duel battling down the stretch. Despite a limited number of starts at Gulfstream, Hough’s runners have been doing fantastic and his stats are quite competitive. Additionally, although the Ortiz brothers have been making daily headlines at Gulfstream with how well they’ve been riding as of late, Saez has been having a solid meet himself. At 10-1 on the Morning Line and with the possibility that he may be overlooked by some, this colt will offer excellent value not only if he wins but also if he were to hit the board. LIVE LONGSHOT
9. Everfast: [Take Charge Indy-Awesome Again; Dale Romans/Chris Landeros; 20-1; 7-1-1-1]
Arguably the most experienced runner in the field at Saturday’s eight and a half furlong distance, Everfast has contested the mile and a sixteenth in six of his seven lifetime starts; though, he has hit the board in just two of those races and has never won at the distance. His most recent effort was a solid one in which he finished a game second to Harvey Wallbanger in last month’s Holy Bull Stakes after sitting a mid-pack stalking trip early on. For his efforts he earned a 94 BSR (108 TimeForm speed rating) which is a career best figure by nine points. The wide post position however is not ideal and both Romans and Landeros have not exactly been having stellar meets thus far at Gulfstream. Additionally, Everfast’s most recent works do not inspire a lot of confidence in him as they are not particularly fast. Although there certainly is the possibility that this colt could improve in his third start off of a layoff, this column will be taking a stand against him. TOSS
10. Frosted Grace: [Mark Valeski-Thunder Gulch; Katherine Ritvo/Jonathan Gonzales; 30-1; 5-1-1-1]
Saturday’s race will mark the first time that this colt has attempted a two-turn route before and while he has been competitive at elongated one-turn sprints and a one-turn mile, this spot seems too tough for him. Additionally, the sprinter on top of his pedigree suggests that eight and a half furlongs is likely out of his comfort zone and the wide post position certainly doesn’t help matters at all. There really is not anything that would suggest that this colt has even an outside chance of hitting the board in the Fountain of Youth. TOSS
11. Union’s Destiny: [Union Rags-Anabaa; Juan Avila/Leonel Reyes; 30-1; 3-1-1-1]
Thus far this colt has hit the board in all three starts at Gulfstream Park, although Saturday will certainly mark a major step up in class for Union’s Destiny. His most recent effort was third place finish in the one-turn mile $75K Smooth Air Stakes (Listed) last December at Gulfstream in which he earned a career best 99 BSR (96 TimeForm speed rating); in fact, it was his best speed figure by 21 points. Since then he has not been seen in 84 days, although he has been posting a number of very solid works over the training track at Gulfstream Park West. Although he possesses a pace-stalking running style, the far outside post is far from ideal as he will likely have to exert a good deal of stamina to be hustled out of the gates, such that he can avoid being caught wide on the first turn. It would likely take a career best performance on Saturday for this colt to make any waves in his 2019 debut, although at 30-1 he might offer some value to those considering him for use in rounding out their trifectas and superfectas. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY (IF AT ALL)