Turfway Park Friday January 18, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves Internet squabbling, Canadians, coral pull-overs, and The Beemie Awards. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Welcome to some cold night racing at Turfway Park… Bomb’s Away.
Fade me.
Race One: 6:15 post – Claiming 7500n2L 6 ½ F 4YO&Up F&M
3-2-9-10
As I handicapped this race, I truly thought that this was carded as a $5000 claimer, but nope, it’s a step up the ladder. This field is pretty bad and, therefore, wide open. #2 Lady Rubi is the ML favorite and deservedly so as she faced $15000 claimers two races back on 11/28/18. I’d even take her in this race if she wasn’t drawn inside with rail-skimming Perry Outzts in the irons. Turfway sprints have not been kind to inside horses this meet, so let’s try to beat her. In short, we need to find a horse that we think will improve, as the running lines for these don’t instill a helluva lot of confidence. #9 Only Praise Me has ran three improving races since starting at Turfway, so she is worth a look and trainer Duane Wells moves her up the ladder after a nice second place finish on 1/3/19. That said, she is 7YO, so we have already seen her best effort, which isn’t good enough tonight. #3 Let’er Eat graduated on The Mountain on 12/18/18 and showed some guts doing so. Like the #2, I’m not thrilled with the inside draw, but I need a horse that has every right to improve. She fits the bill. If she likes the all-weather surface at all, she should be forwardly placed enough to steer clear of the Turfway Park kickback. It’s a bit of a stretch, but, at this level, I’d rather reach for a ML of 15/1 than take a ML favorite at 7/2.
Race Two: 6:44 post – Claiming 5000n1y 1 Mile 4YO&Up
6-8-5-2
I wanted #3 Skiffs Brewmeister, the hard-knocking 10YO in his 87th start, but he scratched. Instead I landed on #6 Ferocious Tiger who ran a solid second against better in his last start on 12/27/18 at Turfway. Steven Cahill places his horses where they belong and he drops this gelding a rung down the ladder tonight in what looks like a better spot. Samuel Bermudez stays aboard for the drop and his Turfway experience surely helps. If you want to take a shot against him, you could do a lot worse than backing #8 Vintage Time. He has plenty of all-weather experience, should improve in his second consecutive start at Turfway, and his running style fits this race like a glove.
Race Three: 7:13 post – MC 30000 6 1/2 F 3YO Fillies
3-9-4-8-2
This is an incredibly wide-open race of newly-aged 3YOs with numerous first time starters. I honestly could pull the trigger on five of these runners tonight. #9 Midnight Sway has been on the shelf for nine months for trainer Wesley Ward, so we know that she will be pounded at the windows. She’s out of Midnight Lute and debuted in an Aqueduct $100K MSW, so she was, at least at one point in time, highly thought of by the connections. She makes perfect sense as she drew outside in this sprint, but let’s back a Ward runner later in the card. #4 Carina seems to be in good form and moves up the claiming ladder after a very credible second place finish in a MC $15K at Turfway on 12/22/18. She couldn’t get past the long shot first time starter Ryaneaux Spot that night, but she certainly didn’t embarrass herself. I can make a reasonable case for each of the four first time starters tonight. I’m gonna toss #1 Pepper Them Girl because she is on the rail with a rarely-used jockey for a rarely-seen trainer. Still, her workouts at Turfway indicate she has a chance. Trainer Aaron West enters #2 Surfer Girl Cents off of seven credible Turfway workouts since 11/14/18. West is no stranger to graduating maidens at first asking firing at 18% with FTS. Again, drawn inside is asking a lot. Tommy Drury is shipping two FTS over from Skylight to face each other in the same race. His horses are usually well-intentioned here at Turfway, so entering two is a curious move. Malcolm Franklin, his regular rider, is on #3 Samurai’s Garden so that’s where I am going to land. I don’t think you can ignore his other entrant #8 Sailor’s Cap as she has a similar training pattern. That said, let the tote board be your guide for the steam.
Race Four: 7:42 post – MC 15000 6 F 4YO&Up
4-5-8-3
This MC $15000 is truoly a puzzle with a lot of moving parts and interesting angles. #8 Trapper Peak hasn’t been seen for eleven months and Mick Ruis has him entered here at Turfway, a long way from his Santa Anita running lines. Perhaps he is entered because Ruis has Midnight Pleasure in tonight’s stakes race and he came up from The Thoroughbred Training Center in Lexington because there was extrea space in the van. His first race on 10/26/17 is likely the best of any in this entire field, but winning off that long of a lay-off and having questions about the surface and intentions is enough for me to fade. #5 Mustang Cat has been away for thirteen months, but at least we know he’ll take to the Turfway surface as he has run a couple of times in Florence, KY. Being a first time gelding usually signals that the connections are prepared to let them run a while. Still, the lay-off is a concern. #3 Uncatchable is another coming in off of an extensive lay-off, this time nine months. He gets Lasix for the first time in his fourth start and Mark Hubley is dropping him pretty aggressively. He’s worth a look when you realize that his workout lines show some good intentions. I am not a fan of the inside draw, however. #4 Dragster got the ultimate equipment change after easily handling a $500 MC group on 12/14/18 and being DQd for a positive drug test for a topical steroid. The trainer moves him up the ladder and I like the confidence. In a race full of questions, let’s take a shot.
Race Five: 8:12 post – Forego 50K 6 ½ F 4YO&Up
8-5-10-9
The Forego drew a salty crowd of runners this year, including last year’s second place finisher #10 Lanier. Brett Santangelo has this 7YO in what appears to be career-best form after finishing a very solid second in the Prairie Bayou on 12/28/18. He is usually a route runner, but looks to fit quite well against these. #5 Midnight Pleasure was forced extremely wide in the Prairie Bayou and really had too much to do coming home in his first all-weather start. He had a nice tightening workout on 1/7/19 for this race and I expect a better trip from John McKee, who stays with the horse. #9 Royal Son loves Turfway Park as evidenced by his three wins from six starts in Florence, KY. I’m a bit dubious of the switch to a sprint as he has never run this distance and he seems to specialize in all-weather routes. Kellyn Gorder is really going to have to tighten the screws on him tonight or he may have far too much to do down the lane. #8 Goneghost has far too many positive angles for me to ignore in this spot. He is 6/6 lifetime on the all-weather, though never at Turfway, and he has run out of the money only once in his career. Joackey Christopher Emigh is the regular pilot for Goneghost and trainer Scott Becker, and he visits Turfway for this race alone tonight. That’s a power move.
Race Six: 8:42 post – Claiming 5000n2x 6 F 4YO&Up
7-2-6-5
I honestly don’t see the need to get cute in this race as three of these look to be head and shoulders above the rest. #2 Bourne in Nixa is shipping up from the Fairgrounds and has the most back class of any in this field. In fact, he beat Mitole on 2/24/18 at oaklawn at this distance. Class doesn’t always translate when the surface is changed, so we should have concerns that he has never tried the all-weather. #6 Bud’s Bayonet has definitely answered the surface question as he has run eight times at Turfway and picked up a check in six of those races. That said, he is an 8YO that is rounding back into form after a brief two month freshening for this meet. His past is good enough, but trainer Troy Newton is dropping him back down the ladder after a couple of close misses in December. #7 Flying Frank had an absolute clunker in his last outing, but that was at a mile. His history indicates that he prefers sprinting to routing, so I am willing to draw a line through the 12/20/18 effort and hopefully take advantage of the outside post position tonight.
Race Seven: 9:12 post – MSW 18.5K 6 F 3YO
11-1-8-9
As I mentioned previously in this card’s analysis, I said we would be backing a Wesley Ward runner later in the card. Well, here we are. #11 Odie is owned, trained, and bred by Wesley Ward and he is entered tonight off of a six month lay-off. Ward is taking the blinkers off and gelded Odie since his last start. Albin Jimenez crawls back aboard, too. Normally I wouldn’t like all the changes to a horse this young, but Ward has worked him six times since the beginning of November, which tells me that he figured out the horse. The outside post is certainly a huge plus as well. All Odie has to do is return to the form of his maiden bow as a 2YO to get it done tonight. How hard is that? I don’t have much faith in any of the experienced runners as they appear to be a cut below Odie, but #1 Elvis the Cat, another Tommy Drury runner, #8 Twisted Anxiety, and #9 Discreet Technique could all win at first asking if Odie needs the race. The post works against Elvis, no Lasix works against Anxiety, and the jockey works against the Technique.
Race Eight: 9:44 post – Claiming 5000b 6 F 4YO&Up F&M
11-2-3-6
For reasons unexplainable to me, I have been on #2 Taco Wayne’s Shot all meet and I was finally rewarded when owner/trainer Alexis Cordero-Lopez booted Carlos Villasana for Samuel Bermudez on New Year’s Eve. Too bad he kept improving and I didn’t get the odds of 12/22/18 when I could have bought a new truck with the winnings had he gotten by the next time winner Stina. I expect ‘ole Taco Wayne to fire another good shot tonight, but the post will compromise his chances. #3 Arch Away hasn’t been much recently at Hawthorne and he should truly relish the return to the all-weather surface. He has been facing better and was finally claimed when dropped to this level on 12/26/18. Bringing him to Turfway for the synthetic surface is a shrewd move by Antonio Meraz, but the draw likely works against. Who knows, he may just love the synthetic. #11 She’s Got Friends is a lightly raced 4YO that seems to be relishing the Turfway surface after finishing as a tight second and a tight winner in her last two races. She draws the far outside with experienced jockey Malcolm Franklin again, so I see no reason for any different results tonight, In fact, she may even be changing barns after her victory.