Tampa Bay Downs
January 11, 2019
Work got in my way last week. Great to be back to cover this week’s races.
RACE 1: Md $10,000, MILE AND A SIXTEENTH, 3 AND UP, DIRT
#1. MR. MACFADDEN makes his first start at TAM. Trainer Jorge Navarro bats 102 .29 AVG. ROI $1.66 with horses making their first starts of the meet. Navarro is also a maiden claiming specialist 29 .34 AVG. ROI $1.37. Horse gets a jock change too. Daniel Centeno is doing well this meet 81 14 9 19 .17.
#3. EL EMANUEL’s Beyers appear to be the best in the field. Last three races were sharp as well. Expect this gelding to be flying home late.
#7. MR. SIXTY SIX’s Beyers appear to be improving 45, 48, 26, and 40. Not as high as EL EMANUEL’s, but still good.
MY PICK: #1 MR. MACFADDEN
RACE 2: Clm. $8,000N2L, 6 ½ FURLONGS, FILLIES AND MARES, DIRT
#1. AVENTINE HILL won last year at 6 ½ furlongs. The mare was trained by Kathy Cuciardo and ridden by Raul Mena. Cuciardo just claimed it from her brother (or her husband, don’t know which) and Mena is back in the irons for this one. Always respect a horse that’s won at this track and at this distance.
#3. SAILOR MOON’s last race was a dud, but the last five races beyond that she placed ITM each time. Beyers look strong as well.
#6. JUBILANT looks like the horse to beat. Excellent trainer-jock combo with Dale Bennett and Pablo Morales (2/13 .15 winning pct. and 31% ITM), has high Beyers and Bennett has won races for this filly’s connections as well (5/15 .33 winning pct. and 53% ITM)
MY PICK: 6-1-3
RACE 3: Clm. $6,250, 6 FURLONGS, FILLIES AND MARES, DIRT
#2. THIRTY NINE SEVEN will be gunning to the front in this race. Trainer Victor Carrasco is batting .24 with first starts of the meet. Beyers are among the highest in the field and ran sharp in nine of her 15 races.
#6. SIMPLY GREAT will also be gunning for the lead. Trainer Michael Stidham has been hot this meet (30 9 6 5 .30). He has a hot jockey on board, Jesus Castanon (72 14 9 9 .19) and the mare ran sharp in four of her last five races. Add in there a bullet workout on Dec. 23 as well.
#7. MISS KRIVORUCHKA has already won twice at today’s distance. Trainer John Rigattieri is a sprint specialist (43 .21 AVG. ROI $2.31) and he’s won two races for this mare’s connections. Another key stat: The mare is making her second start of the meet and Rigattieri is 6/24 with a winning pct. of .25 and ITM 71%.
This race is a tough call.
MY PICKS: 7-2-6
RACE 4: Md $32,000, 1 1/16 MILES, THREE-YEAR-OLDS, TURF
#6. NOONSIGHT is making his first start of the meet. Trainer J K Sweezy is 2/9 with first starts after layoffs (win pct. 22%, ITM 44%). Jockey Antonio Gallardo is 123 25 23 20 .20 at this meet as well. Looks like a great trainer-jockey combo.
#7. PAINTED IMAGE came close to winning last time out. Beyers are strong in this field and trainer Derek Ryan is 8/41 with a winning percentage of 20% and ITM 41% with first starts of the meet. This will be the filly’s first start at TAM in 2019.
#9. QUALITY STEP is a Maryland shipper. Keith Nations is a hot trainer at the moment (11 3 0 1 .27) and is 5/31 with a .16 winning pct. and .45 ITM for owner Vince Campanella. Colt is making his first start of the meet, which Nations is good at 7/32 .22 winning percentage and .50 ITM. Has placed ITM against similar company at LRL and Fergeal Lynch is aboard (29 5 7 1 .17).
MY PICKS: 9-6-7
RACE 5 Md Clm. $25,000, 6 FURLONGS, 3-YEAR-OLD FILLIES, DIRT
#1. FOXY SHOT just lost last time out and earned a 40 Beyer rating, best of the field. The top TAM jockey is aboard too, Samy Camacho (132 39 24 16 .30).
#4. CAGEY LADY bound to improve. Trainer Tim Hamm is 10 .20 AVG ROI $8.42 with horses coming off a +180-day layoff and 57 .18 AVG ROI $1.49 in maiden claiming races. Filly is also making her first start of the meet and Hamm is 7/37, with 7 wins, .19 winning percentage. and .41 ITM with first starts. Gallardo also gets the mount.
MY PICKS: 1-4
RACE SIX: OC $75K/N1X, 1 MILE, 3-YEAR-OLDS, TURF
#3. MORE THAN A.P. is making his first start at TAM. Trainer Chris Block has won two races for the connections and is 7/37 .19 winning percentage with horses making their first start of the meet and a .30 ITM percentage. Jockey Daniel Centeno is aboard as well (81 14 9 19 .17).
#4. SWOPE is trained by the red hot Michael Stidman. Colt is making his first start of the meet, racing for the first time on turf and had a bullet workout on Jan. 4. Stidman is pulling all the stops for this horse and he’s succeeded at these angles before: 1st time on turf (52 .25 AVG ROI $2.05), Won last start (94 .23 AVG. ROI $1.99) and the switch from synthetic turf to grass is an eye-popping 22 .27. AVG. ROI $2.67. Pablo Morales is aboard as well.
#7. REGALLY IRISH ran against tougher company in a stakes race last time out and placed third. May have the class to beat the field. Trainer Graham Motion is a sprint to route specialist as well (62 .24 AVG. ROI $1.68).
MY PICKS: 4-7-3
RACE 7: Md Sp Wt $22,000, 7 FURLONGS, 4-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, DIRT
There’s really only one horse that stands out. #8. LODESTAR ran well at CD on Sept. 30 (placing second) and finished third last time out. Trainer Ben Colebrook is 11 3 1 2 .27 at TAM right now. He also is batting 90 .19 AVG. ROI $3.15 in maiden special weight races. Not bad. In the last two meets, Colebrook is 5/15 with a winning percentage of .33 and an ITM percentage at .66. Seems like the obvious play.
MY PICK: #8. LODESTAR
RACE 8: Clm $16,000N2L, ONE MILE, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UP, TURF
#5. SOLDAT’S STORM is the obvious favorite. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell is the most successful trainer among all the others with entries in this race. The O’Connell-Gallardo trainer-jockey combo is very solid .33 percent over the last two meets. Gelding is moving up in class and O’Connell is 49 10 .20 ITM 49%.
#1. SECRET LIFESTYLE raced sharp at this level two back on the same turf and the same distance as today’s race. Jockey Michael Allen gets the mount too (49 9 10 5 .18). So he’s had some success already. Trainer Don Roberson is a routes specialist as well 14 .21 AVG. ROI $5.13. Respect this one.
#8. JIMMY D is well placed here as well. Faced tougher at Del Mar and Arlington Park. Has the highest turf Beyer of them all (77 on June 15, 2018). Trainer James DeVito does well with horses making their first race after 61-180 layoffs (19 .21 AVG. ROI $4.43). Centeno also gets the mount and he’s winning at a .17 clip.
MY PICKS: 8-1-5
I’m skipping the last race like I usually do. Good luck, see you next Friday!