Gulfstream Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, February 16, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Another Saturday of good racing at Gulfstream Park, with twelve races for the enjoyment of fans and bettors. The main course today is the Grade III Royal Delta, for fillies and mares traveling one mile over the dirt track, but there are some very nice maiden races that can produce quality runners down the line. Let’s get to the analysis.

1st race: 1 Mile. (Turf) Alw 50000s Purse $38,000 (includes $5,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

All Go (#5), Valycove (#2), Themanbehindtheman (#3)

All Go drops to a much more realistic level for him. He had no chance running  in Grade III last time out, and he showed the way for around three fifths of the race. Now he is in a distance more suitable for him, don’t see much speed signed in and Irad takes the call. Valycove just missed last time out at this same level, in a race in which he had some problems at the start. Comes back for three solid works in preparation, and the very underrated Chris Landeros will be on his saddle. That number two slot on the gate should benefit him in getting a ground saving trip. Themanbehindtheman won his most recent start getting to the runaway leader in the late stages. Castellano sticks with him and he hacen’t faced this condition yet. He is a definite miler, as his most recent starts  at this trip have ebb extremely good.

2nd race: 6 Furlongs. ‘OC 12500n1x Purse $44,000 FOR STATE BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Northern (#3), Trev (#1), Silent Tiger (#5)        

My top pick is in the midst of a three race-winning streak, and, in the past, he has shown he doesn’t need the lead at all costs. The Maragh connections send their troop back just one week after posting a comfortable win for almost half of what he is running today. Trev has the numbers to score in here, but he needs the lead to have a chance, and here he will have plenty of company on that first flight. The big upset in here can be Silent Tiger, who has been running in events of much better quality than this one. Not much of a winner, but again, who in this bunch is?

3rd race: 7 Furlongs. Mdn 50k Purse $50,000 (includes $7,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD.

Fort Worth (#2), Bodexpress (#3), Bandon Woods (#4)

Works for this son of City Zip have been outstanding, with five bullets from December on, and he went thru the ring at eleven times the sire’s stud fee. It’s Pletcher and Johnny V., the most potent jockey-trainer combo in the last thirty years or so. Bodexpress ran into a buzz saw named Hidden Scroll last time out. Now gets a cutback in distance and he should be prominent from the gitgo. Bandon Woods makes his debut for trainer Chad Brown, who has been sending quality stock all thru the meeting. Irad takes the reins of this son of Uncle Mo, whose works also imply he is a good one.  

4th race: 7 Furlongs. ™Mdn 50k Purse $50,000 (includes $7,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

Karama (#2), Daring (#3), Gottaflathaveher (#6)

Interesting race, with two experienced runners and four new comers. I will go with Karama, who intrigues me because Kitten’s Joy is a sire known for his prowess in throwing grass runners. This one debuts on dirt and her works suggest she is ready to fire. Daring was hammered at 12 times the sire’s stud fee and maybe, just maybe, Irad preferred her to the Chad Brown trainee. Gottaflathaveher is a Flat Out daughter whose works are good enough to score off the bench. Mc Peek is better second time out, but she seems like she will be on the engine from the start. In the horizontal plays, the All Button is a distinct possibility here.

5th race: 6½ Furlongs. Clm 6250n3L Purse $18,000 (includes $2,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.

Duke of Miami (#2), Won the Case (#8), Bullroarer (#4)

Irad replaces Luis Saez on the reins of this horse, who just won the condition right before this one. Trainer Jorge Delgado can do no wrong, winning at a 47% clip, and he should be right on the first flight, trying to avoid problems from that number two hole. Won the Case sports blinkers for the first time, and he is dropping from conditioned allowance to this very weak group. That by itself is enough to make him a threat here. Bullroarer won his last being much the best, now has breezed twice in preparation for this one and looks poised for an upset.  

6th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Turf) Mdn 50k Purse $50,000 (includes $7,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD.

Red Sorrell (#7), Seismic Wave (#1), Exult (#3)

Red Sorrell had all kinds of trouble in his debut run. He was checked twice while advancing down the inside and when he found daylight, he was flying late against Bourbon in May, who later ran in a stakes race. Johnny V. takes over for the suspended Paco López and has seven works leading up to this race. Seismic Wave has had two races in which the pace has not been of his liking, now he should get some more zip up front and the added ground will be great for him. Exult can be the speediest of this bunch, Irad will be looking to place him on the lead and take them wire to wire.

7th race: 1 Mile. (Turf) ™MC 20000 Purse $25,000 (includes $3,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Super Mama (#10), Anomaly (#4), Beach Dreaming (#3)

This is the third time Irad will ride my favorite, and she has shown steady improvement with him. Look for her to be on the middle of the pack and the pounce on the leaders from the half mile pole on. Anomaly is the fastest of this group and her works leading up to this race are superb. Jeffrey Sanchez will put her at or near the lead from that fourth hole and will be tough if they let her go with a clear lead. Beach Dreaming was too close to the pace on her last, now returns from five months on the shelf with just average breezes, but the group is so weak that she should run well off the bench.

8th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Clm 12500 Purse $25,000 (includes $4,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

Mia Angelina (#10), Samoa (#1), Stronger Kat (#2)

Mia Angelina returns to a group, which is more suitable for her. The quick turn around makes me think she is no worse for the wear and should be extremely competitive against such a weak bunch. Albin Jimenez takes the call and that number ten post is good at six furlongs. Samoa drops sharply from a salty Optional 75X to this 12.5K claimer. Draws suspicion, but if she does not encounter problems from that rail post, she will be a force to be reckoned with late. Stronger Kat aired while breaking her maiden, but she had it all in her favor in that last start. Now she should get much more pace at her flank, so things will not be as easy. Irad rides back for trainer Saffie Joseph.

9th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) ™OC 62500n2x Purse $52,000 (includes $7,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

Sometimesadiamond (#2), Samuna (#11), Southern Sis (#5)

Puzzling race to start the Late Pick 4. Top pick was compromised by a slow start on her North American debut, but she rallied nicely and lost by just two and a half lengths for all the marbles. Now she has that one under her belt, Landeros sticks with her and has four works in preparation. Samuna returns from a nine month break. She showed on her first two races enough talent to win in a group like this one, but she may need this one to finish her training to bigger things. Irad Ortiz will climb to her saddle for trainer Jorge Abreu. Southern Sis had a light campaign in 2018, with one win in three starts. It’s encouraging to see her less than a month after her most recent race. She has two wins in this oval.

10th race: 5 Furlongs. (Turf) ™OC 62500n2x Purse $52,000 (includes $7,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

Okinawa (#5), Factorofwon (#8), Unaquoi (#7)

Another race that can lead to astronomical payments in the verticals. Blinkers go on Okinawa for the first time, that will allow her to go to the lead uncontestably, and Jaramillo is a specialist in turf sprints. Navarro hits at a 29% clip when putting shades for the first time. Factorofwon returned from three months on the bench and just missed in a similar group. Now has that race under the belt and Castellano climbs aboard. Unaquoi has always been a very useful amre, with 16 out of 28 in the money placings, and she is a five furlong specialist. At 15-1, is a very intriguing play.

11th race: 1 Mile. ™RoylDlta-G3 Royal Delta S. Grade III. Purse $150,000 FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Silver Bay (#6), Blamed (#7), Tequilita (#1)

Silver Bay has been doing really nice at lesser circuits like Gulfstream Park West and Tampa, and seems to be one of the premier speed influences in the race. Speaks well of her that she has been training at GP west and goes to a higher circuit looking for a stakes win. Pace should be dictated by her and Blamed, whose come back race left a lot to be desired. You can blame the off track, but she really didn’t offer any resistance at all, didn’t like at all what I saw. Tequilita was all out in winning the Rampart, in a performance not pretty to any horseplayer’s eyes. Johnny V. replaces Saez, and she should be the favorite, but I am looking for some value in this race.

12th race: 1 Mile. (Turf) Clm 16000 Purse $28,000 (includes $5,000 FHBPA-FOA – FHBPA Florida Owners Awards) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

The Queens Jules (#4), Flowmotion (#8), Franklin Towers (#7)

Inscrutable race to end the card. The Queens Jules was claimed away from Wesley Ward two races back and now returns to the group he was claimed while winning. He has a win over this trip and Jimenez returns to the saddle despite the fact that Ward is not training him anymore. Don’t see that much speed, so he should be showing early foot from the gitgo. Flowmotion won at GP West for half of what he is running today, always a positive sign. Irad takes over from Edgar Zayas and has two wins in this oval, and his works for his come back race have been good enough to score off the bench. Franklin Towers take a cutback in distance, those last two races were against much saltier fields. In this group, he should run much better.

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