Hi racing fans. Thanks for reading my picks. If you have any feedback or just simply want to say hi, leave a comment for me. 11 races on the card today. Good luck!
Race 1
8 – Broad Storm. I’ll start off the day with a longshot on top. Broad Storm closed very well in her last race at Delaware. Gets McCarthy back on board, and he rode her on her only victory on the turf. Expect Trevor to have her better placed and in position to get a longshot win.
13 – Nevisian Sunset. She gets the less than desirable outside post, but does get Weston Hamilton back, who had some good rides with her at Laurel. Nevisian Sunset is a versatile horse in the sense that she can win taking the lead or sit back and close, which gives Hamilton options. Horse is 0 for 7 at this distance though, with 4 places but she has won at the turf at Pimlico in the past.
6 – Gennie Highway. Take away the two off-track races, and suddenly she looks like a fine horse. She broke her maiden at Pimlico, but since then she hasn’t quite made progress as a racehorse. A bit of a mystery horse, if the odds are above the 6-1 ML she might be worth a bet in this wide-open first race.
Race 2
2 – Balfour. Nothing fancy here, this 3-5 ML has been racing very well in his last 3 races. Beyer-wise, last two races are better than any of his competitor’s last races. Claimed for a mere $5000 back in July, encouraged to see that the owners aren’t willing to lose this horse via a claim.
6 – Hayne’s Fever. If you toss that last allowance race, Hayne’s Fever has competitive Beyers. Perhaps something was wrong in the last race, so he’s taken the time to get things right. Ran well off the layoff on June 26th this year and at good odds, he may be worth a look.
4 – Final Prospect. He’s been running well since returning from a layoff on June 30th. 8 year old gelding seems to be in good shape and will find himself near the winners again. Gets the high percentage Ness/McCarthy J/T duo, so you know this horse is worth a look.
Race 3
6 – Ray’swarrior. This is a competitive race. Putting Ray’swarrior on top, as he’s won his past three races on three different tracks. Beyers have increased in each of his past five starts, so a bounce is possible here. On the flip side, this horse was racing competitively in much tougher races last year. Bullet on Sep 20th and the Bravo’s aboard tip the scales for me.
8 – Dirtyfoot. 5-year old gelding has been very competitive in the last four races. September 25th bullet is encouraging and he’s going for his third win in a row off the claim from Bruno Tessore. I don’t think his ceiling is quite as high as others in this field, but he’s certainly at a racing peak and a repeat performance from his last could get it done today.
3 – Phantom Ro. Nabbed at the wire by Odds On (the 1) in his last race, but this 5-year old gelding has been racing well since settling in Maryland on August 8th. Based on performance in last 3 races, expect Phantom to go early and set the pace. If the pace is slow enough, he can steal it.
Race 4
2 – Aife. Beyer-wise, ran her best race in her last race at Kentucky Downs. Sired by Paddy O’Prado, she has the turf pedigree, but curiously wasn’t racing exclusively on turf until the 7/14/19 race. The race conditions for this turf route require each horse to have started for a claiming price of $25K or less in 2019-2020. Aife qualified with an OC on the dirt at Churchill for in May 2019. A new horse since being claimed from this 2019 race.
11 – Mucha Mezquina. 3 for 4 on the turf, and the race where she didn’t finish in the money was a DQ from a third place finish (where she lost by ¾ of a length). Trainer may have been pleasantly surprise how much MM has taken to the turf and she could surprise here, but will be playing her underneath.
8 – Lagom. Almost chose the 7 (Blue Atlas) here with Johnny V, but I’ll back the longshot Lagom instead. Lightly raced 4 yo won in convincing fashion in her last race. Lagom has won 3 of 4 turf races in 2020, has an impressive bullet workout on Sep 18th, and maybe, just maybe, she has figured it out and is ready for the step up.
Race 5
2 – I’m Not Joking. Overmatched in her allowance race two back, this Alw 12500s seems the appropriate level for her. At quick glance, she’s raced in four Alw 12500s races since 2019, winning twice and placing twice. Competitive filly should be right there at the wire.
5 – All Good Times. I see this as a two-horse race between I’m Not Joking and All Good Times. All Good Times has been racing in Delaware. Gets Centeno on board and is 4 for 14 at this distance lifetime.
1 Mia Bella Rossa. She has never run longer than a mile, which is a concern. However, she has raced in higher level races and been competitive. She seems to be rounding back into form and if she can capture her peak form from last year, she’s able to win this.
Race 6
4 – New York’s Finest. Recently seen racing in Saratoga for Rudy Rodriguez, NY Finest looks formidable here. This will be the third race off the layoff and his last race may be due to overexertion as he won a tough race off the layoff. Has the speed to get the lead from Unmoored and the cutback to 5F may be just the right winning formula.
3 – Unmoored. Michael Maker and McCarthy are teaming up on Unmoored in this 5F sprint. Unmoored recently won at Kentucky Downs going 7F and is on a personal three race win streak.
8 Royal Commish. Ran a good race last time out in his return to the turf. Will be coming from off the pace, so if the leaders get involved in a speed duel, look for Royal Commish to clean them up. Gets Joe Bravo here in a third race off the layoff.
Race 7
5 – Amen Corner. I’m going to try and beat the ML favorite Toughest ‘Ombre (#2) with this lightly raced 3 year old. I liked how Amen Corner showed early speed in his last stakes race (in which he was no match for) and returns to a OC race, but is not available for the claim. His last two efforts have been solid and am impressed with the under :48 workout on Sep 20th. With any improvement he can win this race.
3 – Tap the Mark. Has been racing in restricted allowance races lately and he’s been competitive in all of them. Three solid workouts since his last effort on Sept 25, this horse enters fit and this is his third race off the layoff (if you like that angle, which I do). Claudio Gonzalez is having a solid meet and I believe Tap the Mark will improve and be competitive here.
6 – Tattooed – Has run a lot of OC 35k/N2X races and has finished second in many of them. Use underneath in your exactas, trifectas, etc but demand value before placing Tattooed on top.
Race 8
12 Why Now. This race is a competitive 5F sprint and a good race to look for value. Why Now is 8-1 on the morning line and her off the pace style of running will suit her well in a race full of speed. Returned from nearly a year long layoff to ease up in an off-turf race in September. Needed that race and look for improvement second off the layoff here.
6 Delicious Pursuit. Should be on the lead or real close after the first quarter. Has three good workouts since being claimed on Sept 1, Delicious Pursuit seems fit and ready to go. If she somehow gets an easy lead, she’ll wire this field.
10 Foggy Dreams. Like Why Now, trained by Rodolfo Sanchez-Solomon. Last two turf efforts were solid, but her closing style gives me pause in this 5F sprint. Look for her coming on strong late.
Race 9
3 – Hold Me Black. If he repeats last race, or comes close, he will win this race. Has the speed to take this wire to wire. First race off the claim for Gonzalez and the Citron/Gonzalez combo striking at 24% in 2019-20.
2 – Stroll Smokin. Should sit right off the pace and beat Hold Me Black last time they raced. Responded well in last with the move to the dirt and retains Perez. I would’ve liked to see another workout for this 5 yo gelding, but can’t argue with the 4 wins in 8 tries this year.
6 – Zoomer. At 12-1 ML, this is my longshot for those that want to go more than two deep on their tickets. If you forgive the last race on a sloppy track, Zoomer has the Beyers to compete with the top two horses. Retains Centeno so the intent to win is there.
Race 10
7 Abiding Star. Front runner will look to take this field wire-to-wire. Dundalk and Glad Rock should go out with him, but if he doesn’t get involved in a speed duel, Abiding Star has the talent and will be in the best position to win this.
4 – Temple. As you probably guessed, sired by Temple City, this horse is bred for the turf. Temple likes to come off the pace and will get first crack at the front runners. Trained by Michael Maker and gets one of the top jockeys in Trevor McCarthy.
10 – Hieroglyphics. Sired by Pioneer of the Nile, this horse is also bred to race on turf. Won last out in impressive fashion and will be coming from further back than Temple to win this race. Like Temple, also trained by Maker and he gets Centeno on board.
Race 11
8 Owendale. A nice G3 to close out the day! Siding with the favorite Owendale here. Raced in the Breeders Cup Classic last year and has been seen racing in G1 and G2 races. This is his second race off the layoff, so should be fit and ready to go. Trained by Brad Cox and gets Johnny V. aboard.
1 Cordmaker. Finished third in this race last year, a race won by Tenfold (the 5). Cordmaker seems in better shape than Tenfold though, and this is his fifth race off the layoff. Last year he won his fifth race off the layoff, so Rodney Jenkins seems to be following the same pattern to get Cordmaker at his best.
3 Plus Que Parfait. Place in a G2 last race as a 25-1 shot (and beat the 5, Tenfold), Plus Que Parfait is racing second off a layoff and looks to be in good shape. He’s been training well for Brendan Walsh leading up to this race as well.