Hey everyone! Last week was good until it was not. A solid 2:5 showing on the week!!! For the weeks I have done this we are 1:10 and up +$92. We have had a few weeks we have gone 4:5 missing anywhere from 2k-5k payouts, but if it is your first time reading, I try to limit the play to around $100-$150 to have options for all levels of players.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I would love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8
Fillies and mares take to the turf to start this sequence off!!
13 Ebullient- this filly obviously prefers the turf so I can excuse the last out performance. Before fading she looked strong and interested though and with that race under her belt coming from the layoff could be ready today. With many MTO’s in the field I think she could get a good break and not have to hustle too early to get over and save ground. Needs to repeat her early 2020 type performances to win but not unlikely. I like that she gets the weight allowance here.
12 JABUTICABA- I just like this filly’s name, we can move on now. Coming off a layoff is not good for the Schoenthal barn, so I could make an argument to fade her today, but given what this field is, I would hate to leave her off and get beaten. Looked good in 2019 at this distance and in tougher company. A nice spotting from the layoff today- one to watch.
9 TASS- This filly is capable of winning but did not like the yielding surface of an Aqueduct winter last December in open company. If she can return to November form, should be worth a shot today. James Lawrence is very profitable off the layoff but only at 8% so I must keep that in mind. I like McCarthy on the mount here today and should be one to watch.
3 KAILEE- Must improve to win in this company but with logical progression should be in a good spot. Has the BEYER to compete but feels like she might be against the pace. If she can stay close enough to the pace, then one to watch as she closes into in the stretch.
Gulfstream Park R10
12 FUDDLED- Saffie Joseph Jr teams up with Jaramillo!!!!! I want to single this horse because I want to be spread out in Laurel 10- and if she had a better post draw, I probably would but the quick turn concerns me here as too many things can go wrong. Looked good in debut, should a nice early speed but had a better turn of foot coming from home. Rosario is good at that, will be interesting to see how she runs today.
11 THRILL- I like Candy Ride offspring and this filly is no different. George Weaver is 28% this meet and 24% with first time starters overall. That number drops a lot to the turn though at only 6%. I think she is dangerous with the workouts we see and Zayas on the mount. Watch for scratches, if these two get down in the gate, my opinion would strengthen.
5 MEADOW BEAUTY-She has a great post draw for this spot and makes 3rd start for Casse and Berrios. 15-1 Morning Line here so horse is going to have a lot of value. I think the morning line is way off here considering the field, but this filly needs a career type effort saving ground and breaking well to win.
3 FIRST GRADE GIRL- American Pharoah on top- who is only 7% with 3-year-old first time starters, greatly reducing that percentage that we saw last year and earlier this year as the sample size grows. Nothing crazy here for work outs but has a great pedigree on top and bottom to be competitive at this level and gets a weight allowance so should have no issue here if breaks well.
Santa Anita R3
8 GOING TO VEGAS- Prat, Miller, Morning line favorite- how many times have we had this conversation? Last out was very closer friendly with that hot pace, and I do not think that same thing happens today. Upgrade to Prat will not let the pace become an issue and should sick perfectly behind the cheaper speed waiting for his opportunity.
4 SAVVY GAL- Admittedly she is outclassed here and does not fit great on BEYER but should be the early leader and too often I have seen a speed horse at Santa Anita go soft fractions at a nice price and wire the field. If the 6 does not challenge early, then Figueroa should be able to control the pace and save horse for late.
3 A THOUSAND DREAMS- I want to like this horse, but on pace I am timid at a 5-1 morning line. Seemed to have figured things out last out against a much tougher field. Stamina could have been a problem off the layoff so this horse may have needed that race on May 17th.
2 MADAME BOURBON- Huge class relief here and she needs it. Has not been impressive lately versus much tougher but comes in today with a couple of good workouts and facing much easier.
Laurel R10
A quick turf route in the middle of the sequence, which kind of sucks to handicap since there are 16 entries and a lot of first-time starters. As of writing I believe I will take most of the horses that have ran previously and toss them such as 2 KUKULHKAN, 7 POWER BACK, 12 SECOND ENCORE,
15 COMMISSIONER BIGGS- Very interesting gelding making 2nd start on the turf, who looked well in this spot 2 weeks ago versus similar company. Brittany Russell has been winning well this meet with well-placed horses and is about 38% 2nd off a layoff. Appears to be morning line favorite but looks the part today.
3 MORE TWIRL- This first-time starter has Candy Ride on top and Tale of the Cat on the bottom. Work outs have been good on the dirt and Susan Cooney is 11% for a +3.53 ROI with first timers and 20% with Maiden Claimer Debuts. Worth a shot here. If tote sinks, then you know we are right.
6 EAGLE KEEPER- McCarty and Trombetta team up again, and they were 26% last year. This gelding makes debut for a trainer who is 15% on 1st timers and 1st turfers along with 16% on maiden claimer debuts. Tiznow is the sire so fits well here.
Golden Gate R5
2 COLAVITO- Blaine Wright is solid as they come, and Juan Hernandez is been on fire at almost 30% of mounts winning. Wright’s barn is 17% with 1st time starters and 20% with 2-year-olds. Workouts have been good, has a good pedigree for this level. Hard to pass up. Really like seeing the 5F workout last week knowing the horse can go this distance at a good pace.
7 SALE’ Y VALE- Barn mate of COLAVITO and actually has slightly better works. Expecting the 2 to take bulk of the money and perhaps the other Wright horse can get up home.
The Play
$144
R1- 13,12,9,3
R2- 12,11,5
R3- 8,4
R4- 15,3,6
R5- 2,7
Leg 3 at Santa Anita- I could very well construct this ticket leaving the morning line favorite #8 off the ticket and some combination of 2-3-4 be used to replace depending on your bankroll. If I did that the ticket is $216 with no 8 but I still want to try and keep this ticket lower in price for the average player. If your bankroll supports a larger ticket than obviously structure accordingly.
Stay tuned to the @thedailygallop as I will be updating the turf races/scratches as I need to on their Tweet!!!! Good luck everyone!!