Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5!! Last week was a good week for us as the $144 investment returned $1152. As the sequence was going on, I really thought we were facing a bigger pay day, but any day profitable is a good day. Today I am playing for a good payday- tossing ML favorites out of 3 legs. I think this sequence is going to pay well, and I want to be on the right side of it.
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:49pm EST Maiden Claiming $10k, 5,5F on Dirt
This race is interesting at first glance, not a big fan of the ML Favorite CHUCK’S DREAM. Horse was off for a long time, returned 8 days ago tired out and faded. With the workout pattern, horse may need another race to be prime form here. Race really feels wide open and hopefully somewhere later in the sequence we will find a narrow spot that allows us coverage here. I should note I am not a big fan of the 10 either here. Long layoff and see no reported works the entire time. That doesn’t bode well for a horse that’s ready to run even with the weight allowance.
6 WHITE RUSSIAN- Trying for a win in the 10th career start and has been getting progressively better albeit at a slow pace. Alex Cintron is aboard for the 5th time with a return to the $10k class level. Even if horse doesn’t win, should be on the board for your exactas/trifectas.
4 OUTSIDE THE BOX- First time starter for W. R. Bailes, with Kevin Gomez aboard. The trainer angle is not very strong, but when paired with Gomez on the dirt they are 3/8 for a 2.25ROI. So I believe this horse is well intended. Good workout pattern, and facing this field of career losers should be in a good spot today. On the pedigree side Bandbox FTS’s are winning 7/35 for 20%. Hard to pass this horse up today.
9 PERFECT HEIR- I don’t want to like this horse but with the current form cycle I believe the horse could have 1 more slight advancement forward to a better performance. With the 2 likely bad favorites here, I think this horse could be a benefactor of several tiring horses if how I see the pace picture carrying out.
Santa Anita R1 04:00 EST Maiden Special Weight $55k Fillies and Mares 8F on Turf
Not a huge fan of the first race of the card being in this sequence. I usually like to see how the turf is playing before committing much. I want to fade the ML favorite of UNICORN because I think there are a few horses that fit at a price. Probably way overthinking this race but that’s the fun of these sequences. This is the type of race you take a stand in, and hate yourself later when the chalky horse wins by 3.
6 SAVING SOPHIE- I really want to like this horse, coming in here. Took time off came back in December running an ok number but nothing over the top. Made debut on turf in 2019 and ran decent considering the level but will need to improve to win today. Drayden Van Dyke stays the mount here and going to the turf, have to like the chances as Van Dyke with Ronald Ellis on turf have been profitable.
7 VEGAS PALM- Here is an interesting horse, has had a stable of jocks on, but Flavien Prat returns to be the only jockey to come back for a 2nd ride. Don’t know if that means anything that Gary Mandella is thinking or just how schedules worked out. Horse feels like the type that can sit there and surprise in the right situation with a huge effort. Coming in for the 5th lifetime start, with Prat aboard, probably include to be comfortable here.
8 NEW DRAMA- First time starter for Tim Yakteen and this horse has the pedigree to win today in a turf route. I like that Abel Cedillo gets the mount as he has been riding well this winter and not getting over bet by name alone. Everything from trainer ROI situations to the pedigree with first time starters indicates this horse has a chance today.
3 MISS TOKYO- If trying to beat the favorite UNICORN here then I think she has a shot. In first route action last out at Golden Gate ran a decent number but returns to the turf today. Pedigree may suggest this is too long for her, but running lines say perhaps not and that last attempt was a conditioning issue. Should be a good price with Brice Blanc aboard for Richard Baltas.
Gulfstream Park R8 04:06PM EST AOC $50k, Fillies 5F on Turf
I like this field and considering speed has been holding well at Gulfstream turf I feel like we either have to single NORMA’S LOVE or play around it.
5 NORMA’S LOVE- Last out was the first time the horse was facing winners and she held her own finishing 2nd. Comes down slightly in class here but Jaramillo Emisael stays on the mount here. Horse has a good workout pattern coming into today, and should benefit from a month off. Jorge Navarro will have the horse ready to go. Can this horse get the lead is my big question-
3 MIN IT TO WIN IT- Back in December Paco Lopez took this horse to the winners circle but he chose the 7 here. Jose Ortiz gets the mount today so I don’t expect the horse to get on the lead given riding tendencies. The tough part here is Carlos David does well in turf sprints and it is a tough spot to toss. I have done well fading horses facing winners for the first time though, so perhaps this is a spot with the jockey change to look elsewhere.
1 MRS. MAISEL- Luiz Saez seems to know what this horse likes, getting the career best out of time. Steps up today for Teresa Pompay who overall has some solid ROI over the last year, but the 2 categories she’s poor in is after winning a race and in turf sprints being 3/28. Every time the horse has been entered and taken off turf has scratched out, and with the pedigree I understand why. Horse will be short, and in this race I don’t think we can be wide and manage a good ROI
7 REITERATE- Here is the wildcard for the race. Paco Lopez takes the mount for Mark Casse today coming off of the 3, and this horse is coming down from stakes company in New York for this race. Horse performed poorly in NY and Canada and returns to Gulfstream where she won her debut in 2019. Paco should be able to sit a perfect trip here and bring her home. I am not entirely sure here of my feelings on this horse as the pedigree doesn’t scream turf standout. Works have been decent but like I said Paco choosing her over the 3 is why I think we have to include as at least a C if you are an ABC style player.
Golden Gate R3 4:48pm EST Claiming $12.5 Fillies 8F on Synthetic
This is a big field and a very tough race considering the horses. This is not the type of race I would normally wager on because frankly, the horses aren’t good. I’m going to toss half the field early and focus on a few key ones here.
4 JUST CLASSY- Horse has been running well above this level now gets dropped here after a poor last outing. If we go 3-5 races back the horse performed well and would win here today.
2 TEXT DON’T CALL- Not a huge fan here, as the form cycle seems to be leading in the wrong direction for Jonathan Wong. One thing I’ve learned though is tossing a Wong out at Golden Gate will affect your bankroll negatively. Luis Reyes stays aboard after winning last out, and stays in the same class. Don’t need a lights out effort to win today.
1 BILLY’SGOTASINGLE- There are worse horses I suppose to single here. Don’t see a ton to not like here and fits really well since coming to synthetic routes. Ideally Catalino Martinez sits off the pace in a perfect pocket trip and explodes. Hesitation here for singling is traffic trouble, but if the price is right it is something to think about.
10 CHARLIE’S BELLE- Removal of blinkers today is an interesting angle. Can excuse last out given facing winners for the first time, but Alejandro Gomez stays aboard. Not a huge fan of this horse, but Ellen Jackson has been decent. In this field I think this horse ends up being too short to cover myself with given the negatives but- buyer beware I suppose.
Gulfstream Park R10 05:10PM EST Claiming $40k, Fillies and Mares 8.5F on Turf
Let’s get paid!!! Hopefully by now we are 4:4 and looking for a price to get us paid today. This is a nice field to close out the sequence. Not a fan of the ML favorite this race either, so we can see what we have. The ML Favorite MUSIC OF LIFE- has the best number here if you like the numbers but the form cycle is horrendous and worth a fade to me.
6 GET REWARDED- This is what we are going to do here. We look back at 2019, and this horse’s best towers over here- at an 8-1 ML with Edgar Prado aboard, I am excited here. Giant red flag is no reported workouts with the scratch from January 5, 2020. If you believe in workout reports I suggest checking this one out when they release. If there is anything in there, then I believe this horse is live at a good morning line.
1 ALIZEE- Comes out here for Jorge Navarro and Victor Lebron returns on the mount. Not crazy with the positioning for this horse, but Navarro 2nd off the claim is 17/59- so worth looking at. I would at least expect this horse to be on the board, to be honest though, I am not sure where the pace comes from to get this horse all the way up front.
3 BIG TINA- This horse is 20-1 ML and I have the horse at about 9-1 on my side of things. Armando De La Cerda isn’t a power trainer but the horse ran really well in 2019 it was in a lot tougher company. Comes here with Paco Lopez aboard and horse would not surprise me entirely. Horse has been all over during her career and that is the reason for the price- but could be a huge pick 5 winner for us.
7 WITH HERSELF- Last out on good turf, horse started slow and never really got moving. Chris Landeros stays aboard for Graham Motion and should be a factor here. 10-1 ML and I think we include here for another price. Adds blinkers today, which is usually a good move for Motion horses. Surprising that at this point for the 8th start they are just now putting blinkers on.
My Play
This is a tough ticket to put together. Admittedly wanting to beat the favorites in 3 legs. I am ok getting beat by them if they come in- though it will irritate me because they seem easy to get to, probably too easy. Right now I am looking at $144 for this ticket and I am leaving ML favorites out of 3 races. If this comes in, I would believe we will be paid handsomely, so maybe a bit wider than I need to be.
R1- 6,4,9
R2- 6,7,8
R3- 5,7
R4-4,1
R5- 6,3,7,1
If you are an ABC player or looking for a cheaper ticket- R3 is probably a good single (lone A) and R5- I would have the 6,7 as A’s with the 1,3 as B’s. If this race at Santa Anita wasn’t race 1 of the card, there is a good chance I single the 6 and be done with it for a $48 ticket, however with the unknowns of the day, I want to be covered and not go 4:5 with that leg keeping me from a good payday. Heck I still might- be awesome to win $2k on $48 instead of $144.
Good luck today everyone!