Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski returning here for another Stronach Pick 5! Well the past 2 weeks have seen 4:5 and 3:5 from the picks. Not horrible but we are out $145 total on the two weeks. This is going to be the week we come back and get healthy again. Interesting sequence here as the Santa Anita race with a Bob Baffert first time starter really hampers how much I want to throw at this sequence. I feel I could single somewhere in the 3rd, 4th or 5th leg respectively marked with asterisks in the writings for you to follow along as my better thoughts. Depending how you feel it should be a good sequence for straight win bets also for me!
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer- I’d love to hear feedback or comments on your thoughts on the races!
Laurel R8 3:49pm EST Starter Optional $25k, 6F on the Dirt
This race at first glance seems tough, a lot of possible horses can run well today and win but need to be careful and not blowup our ticket early. This race has a lot of pace here, and I feel silly not using the closers in the 3 and 6 but between the pace and the traffic seems unlikely either will get up.
8 FIX ME A SANDWICH- This horse has been running well since December 1 and considering the connections moved the horse down here, confuses me. They either need to get a payday or are ok losing this horse. Joseph Taylor isn’t great on the Parx to Laurel Move but does hit at 30% win winning last race. Putting Rodriguez on the mount tells me that they are serious of running,
4 STROLL SMOKIN- Claimed last out with John Robb who is profitable first off, the claim. Horse had a few rough outings back in September and November but got a layoff and came back strong on January 1st. If the horse runs to its normal pace, should do fine with a move to 6F and can be serious contender today. Would be a nice price to start the sequence off with as well.
9 STORMING MY WAY*- Interesting that Trevor McCarthy chose this horse over STROLL SMOKIN, who he won with last out. McCarthy has won with this horse before and the horse is coming in off a normal pattern of races and works. I think this horse should be able to sit just off the pace and if it collapses should be able to pounce with a great ride.
Gulfstream Park R8 04:06PM EST Claiming $16k, Fillies and Mares 8F On Turf
What a field here, this field at writing has 16 entries of which, I could make an argument for 8. Narrowing this field down is going to be tough, I am hoping that there is a race later that we can go narrow and afford us coverage here. A lot of potential speed here and the entire picture will be interesting with the ALSO ELIGIBLES perhaps drawing in. Both of Rohan Crichton’s entries are very useable if they get in.
6 CHICLET’S DREAM- Morning line favorite here, and hard to toss out. Since I want to be covered wide here, probably wins easy, because that’s racing for you. Chad Brown on turf- so will be very short. Horse appeared to be in good form back in November, and now stretches out. Should get a good trip just off the pace and benefit from the speed of the race. Gets first move on the closers perhaps.
1 ELITE APPEAL- Horse comes out for Plesa Jr. with Rendon aboard. Horse has failed at this level before but fits in well on this field. Will depend a bit how the course looks early and if the rail is detrimental today. Should be able to get out early and save ground but if pressured heavily from the 4 or 10 could prove problematic.
8 REGAL ROMANCE- Horse has been improving since coming back from the layoff, and today is 3rd from Layoff and 3rd from the claim. Trainer is not exactly burning a path to the winner’s circle so could make an argument to pass this horse, but Irad on the mount is 1/8 for Kurtinecez so would hate to get beat by this horse.
2 SISTER GEMA- Horse has been very competitive on this surface and now puts Jose Ortiz on the mount. Horse spent a long time in maiden ranks and is 1/11 lifetime. Unfortunately, it’s hard to put this horse on any type of pace that makes sense, with the horse being all over in the last 5 races. Enough positives though to include here and if runs back can be tough.
Golden Gate R3 4:47pm EST Allowance Optional $40k, Fillies 8F On Synthetic
Smaller field here than we have seen most of the day, and it seems like could be narrow here. As much as I like the 4, if I had to single I would probably look at the 6.
4 PAIGE ANNE- Horse has been getting consistently better on dirt, now comes to the synthetic with Juan Hernandez aboard. Comes from MSW’s and facing winners for the first time. Interesting note is was a scratched entry in a G2 Stakes race on January 5th, so the connections like what they have here. If horse takes to the synthetic, could walk away with this race.
7 REIWA- Last out was facing winners for the first time and lost by a nose. That race was after a moderate layoff and was a best effort. Its been 32 days since that race, and the horse should be recovered, but a regression would not surprise me.
6 MOLLIE O’McEVOY**- This horse is 2 for 2 in races and has been getting better every outing. One more step forward and horse could be a winner at a decent price. William Delia puts Catalino Martinez aboard who is profitable together on the synthetic surface. Should be noted that the sire is Clubhouse Ride whose offspring in their 2nd route are hitting at 29% clip. That is an interesting stat but is only 14 starts, so don’t be taken blindly by it.
Santa Anita R3 5:02PM EST MSW $55k, 5.5 F On Turf
Typical Santa Anita January race here- 8 horse field and a Baffert first time starter with Drayden aboard. None of these raced horses have ran to the par for this level and tells me I should look elsewhere.
7 SKY JUMPER**- As noted above, Baffert first time starter with Drayden Van Dyke aboard. Horse has be working out well and is a must use.
3 SILENCED- Not sure how this pace works out, but if this horse for Peter Eurton and Flavien Prat takes to the turf, should be dangerous. Pedigree states that the horse should do well on turf.
1 TYRANNICAL REX- Horse has been consistent but has not been able to get over the hump. Adds blinkers today and gets weight with JC Diaz Jr aboard. Perhaps they are going to change up the plan they are 0-4 with. Is it desperation or does Jack Carava see something with the horse?
Gulfstream Park R10 05:10PM EST Claiming $16k, Fillies and Mares 8.5F On Turf
Well I was hoping for a field that I could comfortably be narrow in and this could be it. Huge field here, but a few horses stick out to me. I don’t think most of this field is fast enough to win, especially since the pace scenario seems to be fast today depending on the ALSO ELIGIBLES could set up for an off the pace type.
15 SASSY JUSTICE- I really hope this horse draws in. Irad is back on this mount and could be never dangerous. Horse has won last 2 outings and has been getting better throughout 2019. I thought the horse could be loose early, but with Irad, I think we all will expect him to try and rate, this could be a scenario where Irad hurts us, but worth a shot.
4 YAKO- Last out might have been the time to bet this horse, but the horse really liked the stretch out. Tyler Gaffalione gets the mount today, and I like him here. Would expect to sit off the pace and close into this pace.
10 LIIBERALE**- Horse’s best effort wins today, if can repeat that form that had back at Laurel. Horse declined from that outing and now returns from a layoff with Mary Eppler hitting 22% from a layoff. Workout patterns and Jose Ortiz on the mount suggest that this horse will fire today.
12 CHA CHA HEELS- Last 2 races horse did not have enough pace to close into and it showed. If this field comes together, it is possible that several horses press each other early and give a fast pace. This horse cannot win by itself and needs the pace to get it done. Rajiv may find traffic trouble, but the price will reflect that. If you are an ABC type player, this horse is a solid B or C.
My Play
Ticket construction is important today, could spend a lot and get little return depending how this goes. The way I am leaning right now on Thursday is to go with a $72.00 ticket and I am singling the Baffert first time starter. If you were wanting a cheaper ticket, the race at Golden Gate Leg 3- I could see singling the 6. Personally, I will see what happens with the ALSO ELIGIBLES and my ticket construction but again, my goal is to try and stay below $100 to make this affordable for everyone.
R1- 8,4,9
R2- 6,2,8,1
R3- 4,6,7
R4- 7
R5- 10,4 (See note)
In case of the 15 draws in to close this out, I will include for $108.
Good luck today everyone!