- Arklow- Smith/Cox
- I don’t think the 5/2 odds here on Arklow are appetizing at all. He just ran last weekend at Keenland, and ran pretty poorly. Mike Smith ships in to ride the car which is not the most ideal of situations with Covid-19. However, it is interesting that Brad Cox is bringing him back in a week and gets Mike Smith aboard. He should be closing late but i think the concerns outweigh the positives.
- Standard Deviation- McCarthy/ Motion
- Standard Deviation should be more prepared in his second start since his overseas trip. I think Trevor has been riding pretty hot lately, and I think it is pretty cool seeing him get the mount today due to the new protocols of Covid- 19. Standard Deviation is 2 for 2 at Monmouth and should be able to get the distance. Must use on all tickets.
- Muggsamatic- Lopez/ Maker
- Paco has been crushing the Monmouth meet so far and gets the mount back on Muggsamatic. Paco rode this horse for Jason Servis at the end of last year and early on this year and he won in a restricted stakes race and a 2nd against statebreds. I think the distance won’t be an issue and I think Paco will give him a good off the pace trip.
- Eve’s Medal- Torres/ Stephens
- I think Eve’s Medal needs a whole lot to happen in order to win. He did stumble out of the gate in debut and ran pretty huge after the bad start. Jomar stays aboard but I don’t think he breaks his maiden today. Maybe use underneath.
- Aquaphobia- Bravo/Maker
- Aquaphobia gets Bravo today and Bravo is my arch nemesis when it comes to gambling. I think the distance is an issue for this horse though. His best days might be past him now that he is 7 years old. His numbers figure however, so I can see why he is 9/2 ML.
- Current- Gallardo/ Pletcher
- This will be Current’s second race off the layoff and 2nd in a row at the distance. Gallardo gets the mount and he ran 2nd in the Jersey Derby going shorter back in August. I think he can get the distance but he will need the right type of set up in order for him to really get going down the stretch. Use on deeper tickets.
- O Dionysus- Carrasco/ Murphy
- O Dionysus gets back to the preferred surface and can definitely get the distance as he has won at 1M ½. I think he has a shot at making some noise in this field at a price. His figures are a lot less compared to the rest of the field. Yet, I think Carrasco is a very underrated young jockey but this is a tall task for this horse to step up today. I like him underneath.
- Corelli- Centeno/ Thomas
- Corelli might be my least favorite in the field besides the maiden. He is getting lasix for the first time and Blinkers on as well. He was working out at Belmont and shipped into Monmouth for this stakes race. I just don’t see this horse firing today but the 10/1 is juicy on a horse with a lot of changes to his normal self.
- Paret (AUS)- Vargas Jr./ Lawrence III
- Paret won a huge race in the Tiller last time out which half of this field also came out of. Vargas rode the hell out of him as well and keeps the mount today. I think the distance is his max distance. His versatile run style is why I think he might be the horse to play here. I will be using him on top and hoping he gets the same type of trip.
TOP PICKS
#9 Paret (AUS)
# 2 Standard Deviation
#3 Muggsamatic
The Haskell
- Dr Post- Bravo/ Pletcher
- Dr Post almost got by in the Belmont Stakes back in June, and should be ready to roll today. However, I do not think he wants the distance. He gets a downgrade in jockey from Irad to Bravo. I think his cap is a one turn Mile or Mile and 1/16th. I think he will be close but I don’t think he will win.
- Authentic- Smith/ Baffert
- Authentic looks awfully tough here and rightfully the ⅘ Favorite. He ships in for the mighty California Duo of Mike Smith and Bob Baffert. He should be on the lead early or at least close by. He seems like he needs the lead in order to win. This is his first start out of California which could hurt him. This is a lot weaker than fields he has been facing. Must use.
- Jesus’s Team- Juarez/ D’Angelo
- Jesus’s Team is another speed horse but he has a lot less class. I don’t see how he fits here but I can see the connections taking a shot at the 100 points and a weak field. Juarez hasn’t been his normal Monmouth self but has been doing okay, and I just think he is outclassed in this spot.
- Ancient Warrior- McCarthy/ Hollendorfer
- Hollendorfer sends a horse here from his Oaklawn and Churchill stock. Trevor gets the mount but he is another horse that will be trying to steal it on the front end and hope for a crazy upset. I just don’t see it being possible for this horse to win.
- Fame to Famous- Ferrer/ Mc Allen
- Fame to Famous is looking to shock the world today. He is probably the worst horse in this field and I just don’t understand why he would be entered here. John Mc Allen is 0 for 29 this year and I don’t see Fame to Famous bringing him his first win here. I think he is a better turf horse anyway in my opinion.
- Lebda- Cintron/ Gonzalez
- Lebda couldn’t win the Ohio Derby let alone finish in the top 3 or 4. This will be his 2nd start off the layoff and ships back to the mid atlantic. Cintron comes in to ride again which is a good sign. I just think the horse isn’t quick enough and that he will need to sit off a strong pace and hope for a meltdown.
- Ny Traffic- Lopez/ Joesph
- Ny Traffic is probably my top pick here. He can sit off the pace and make one run but he can also be on the lead early. He ran huge in the Matt Winn and it was a merry go round type of day that day at CD. He might not be classy enough but this field is a Grade 2 at best but probably a Grade 3 in quality. I think he can get the distance and Paco is the best jockey at Monmouth so I think the connections are tough to beat here. Must Use.
TOP PICKS
#7 Ny Traffic
# 2 Authentic
#1 Dr Post