It’s a pretty chalky 4th race. I will use four horses (4-5-7-3). Rocking Chieftain (#4) loves to hit the board but is only 1 for 18 on the dirt. The horse has speed and will be forwardly placed. Sky Glory (#5) is obvious but the horse took 11 tries to break its maiden, so you can’t single this horse at all. Zambora (#7) has yet to break 50 on the Beyer scale but a three year old has every right to improve. Magic Bro (#3) is a closer but is also a younger horse that has a not so terrible dirt record.
I’m singling Gathan’s Girl (#2) in the 5th. I usually don’t like singling 8 year olds, but this mare has a decent record (relatively speaking). Last seen at Ferndale last out, the horse had a very sluggish start. If you look at the last four sprint starts, she had broken very well out of the gate. Expect a rebound and a nice position at or close to the lead. Dancing Sunset (#3) will take money, but the Beyers aren’t appealing for a morning line favorite. The horse is also cutting back in distance, so she will be further back than she has been in her prior route races. I also like Belle of Rainier (#6) at a price. The speed numbers are comparable and why would you want to focus on chalk in a 3000 dollar claiming race?
, 6th Race. WRCluer Memorial Purse 30K I’m a big fan of two turn turf routes, so let’s dive into this one . I’m taking a shot with Adorned (#8). He’s a five year old that has raced only nine times, with only four races on the turf. Ortiz is a solid turf trainer, and this horse has tactical speed, which it will need from the 8 hole. The Beyer number is a bit light, so he will need to improve a little to beat these. Bobby Baby (#3) is 6 for 20 and has two super sharp works on his tab. I’m not a big fan of closers but Davis is also a very good turf trainer and this horse has a good winning percentage. Plus, for a TuP stake, this horse is relatively young (4yo) so he still has room to improve.
Guato Guapo also has a strong work tab but will be an underlay with Diodoro training. I’m not feeling the 2 for 11 record. This horse won last time he was on the turf, but he’s better on dirt (4 for 10). Dubby Dubbie (#10) and Tule Fog (#11) will also take money, but both may be parked outside on a course with hairpin turns. Can’t play them at low odds.
You can’t take Fats Dominus (#6) lightly in the 7th. The horse is 4 for 10 at the distance, and wired the field with a fast pace last time out. There isn’t much speed in the race, so a repeat is possible. I’m also using Whoa Boy (#4) and Music Giant (#8). The former pressed the pace against a tougher field at Ferndale last out, while the latter returns to the dirt after a trio of turf starts. MG is a deep closer, but he managed two win in his last two appearances on the dirt.
The most obvious horse in the sequence is in the 8th. It’s the Queen of Green Stakes for older fillies and mares at one mile on the turf. Kool Kate (#2) has Beyers that tower over these and has a sparkling record of 8 for 17 on the grass. That’s elite! She just missed in a state-bred race in Illinois. Add in the comfy inside post and the tactical speed, and you have a horse with no perceived weaknesses. (That’s also why the horse will be odds on.) I’ll also give Chance to Shine (#11) a shot. The horse is a perfect 2 for 2 turf record. I hate the wide draw and the horse is also not as fast as the chalk, but lightly raced horses often improve and the ticket will pay if this horse wins. Convinced (#10) could hit the board but she is not a serious win candidate.
The play:
4th: 3 4 5 7
5th: 2
6th: 2 3 8
7th: 4 6 8
8th: 2 11
Total play on a 50 cent ticket is only $36. Good Luck!!!!