Welcome back to another Saturday at the Big A! We have nine races to dive into today, and the weather looks like we’ll get a fair track. Good luck to everyone playing!
Best Win Bet: Race 4 : #5 – Behind the Couch
Best Doubles: Race 3: 3,5 / 5 & Race 4: 5 / 1,7
Best Exacta: Race 3 : 3-5
Early Pick 5 ( Race #1) .50 – 1,5,6 / 3,6,7 / 3,5 / 3,5,8 / 1,7 = $54
Race 1
1 – Never Before – only making his fifth career start here today and comes off a nice third last out after an awkward break. He draws inside and tends to run near the lead, which has been a winning combination over this oval in recent weeks. Looking for a sharp break and a front-running trip for this lightly raced gelding.
5 – Purchasing Power – always have to be careful bumping a Chad Brown / Manny Franco horse to the second slot, so an exacta box play is in store for me here as a natural hedge. He ran well enough in the last try coming three-wide off the pace, so if it gets hot in here I think it sets up well for him. Not sure if that pace will quicken enough though?
6 – Tiz No Bluff – five month break for this Michelle Nevin-trained gelding, a spot where she connects at 18%. He ran OK in allowance company last spring and summer before a fading third at this level in September, and while he could certainly pop and win here I’m going to try and beat him at the likely short price.
Race 2
7 – Today Comes Once – came from off the pace in the debut for a nice third considering the wide trip down the lane. Barn isn’t great (just 1 for 28 ) with maiden second-timers, but the 2/17 work is very promising and perhaps the outside draw will suit the stalking style in her second career try?
6 – Ja’s Malibu – she’s ran second in each of her last two attempts at this level and isn’t shy about flashing her speed. Could run into a bit of a pace duel with the 3 and 4, so maybe today is the day to be a bit more tactical? If she does try to wire them, I would love the setup for my top choice.
3 – Wailin Josie – ran admirably in her debut near the lead and adds lasix for career start number two. Sharp drill on 2/17 is a positive sign as well.
Race 3
3 – Jibber Jabber – taking a little swing here with the lightly-raced gelding who is three for three in the young career. Junior Alvarado grabs the reigns today, which is a very positive jockey angle for a horse making the jump from Penn National up to the NYRA circuit. I like that he stalked in the last after setting the pace in the first two wins, and he’ll need that versatility to take the next step today at a big price.
5 – Charlie McCoy – ultra-impressive off the layoff last month, grabbing the lead early and never looking back. In a short field with not a ton of pace, he could repeat that effort today in his first crack against NY-bred company. Only reason I’m leaving him out of the top spot is the likely price discrepancy between him and my top selection, who could also benefit from the lack of early speed.
6 – Sicilia Mike – he’s run second or third in 18 of 33 career starts, with only two wins. Will run his race, try to come from off it and I like his chances to pick up the pieces.
Race 4
5 – Behind the Couch – nice string of workouts leading into the debut for a barn that’s connecting on 19% of first-timers. Junior Alvarado gets the mount on this $100k purchase, and when teamed up with Englehart the wins come at a 28% clip locally.
8 – Mo Savings – a $125k Uncle Mo owned and bred by Repole Stables goes out first time for Pletcher and gets Franco aboard… let’s beat him! Very good chance this one is the goods and blows them away, but things haven’t been as good (relatively) for this barn as of late and I like that my top pick is to his inside.
3 – Kid is Frosty – fourth career start today after finishing second in the last two at very short odds. Brad Cox excels (29%) on layoffs such as these and Lezcano will have him near the pace here.
Race 5
1 – Wushu Warrior – draws down inside in a field missing speed, so the opportunity might be there to get out quickly and set the tempo. He’s 3 for 6 ITM locally and 6 for 12 ITM at today’s distance, and the 2/16 workout was very sharp. Lezcano and Chris Englehart are 2 for 5 at the Big A together as well.
7 – Elios Milos – first start for the Chad Brown barn, a 29% angle if that interests you at all; has shown nice versatility in the first two starts, rallying from way out to win the debut, then stalking for a nice second time out. The layoff is concerning, but again Brown finds success hitting at 28% in breaks greater than 180 days.
5 – Formal Start – heading back into allowance company after two nice tries in the claiming ranks. 6 for 14 ITM at today’s distance but would have to really jump up to beat these.
Race 6
3 – Brees Bayou – makes the second start for Bruce Levine after a promising debut earlier in the month and adds lasix for the first time today. The $175k purchase had a solid drill on 2/17 and at 5-1 I’m interested to see if he can take the next step forward.
8 – Pulsate – the likely favorite makes his fourth start at his fourth distance, but seemed to find his stride in the last try and will certainly be tough in here today if he runs back to that figure.
2 – Miami Mumbles – 20% win-rate with first-timers for Chad Brown, and adds Franco to try and improve on their measly 30% clip locally…..
Race 7
5 – J S Bach – boring and chalky, but Servis is winning races at an INSANE clip right now and dirt sprints are his bread and butter. There is some speed to his inside (not a ton), so I expect he’ll have this one sitting just off the leaders and pouncing on the turn at a short price.
1 – Runaway Lute – has some early speed and should get a nice spot on the rail, and he’s dropping back into OC company after two cracks at the stakes level. The two works this month have been very sharp, could be sitting on a big effort.
2 – Bon Raison – a legit wire-to-wire threat if he’s allowed to get loose and the likely pace-setter in here; I think there’s going to be just enough pressure on him to keep him from taking the money, but it wouldn’t shock me…
Race 8
4 – Forgotten Hero – the three best horses in here have won five of their first six races combined, with all of them being wire-to-wire. If this one wants to do it again, I think she has the most early speed to do so. She also sits outside the other main speed, so a stalking trip could be in play as well.
3 – Stonesintheroad – will have her chance to break and get the lead against this bunch, a formula that has worked perfectly in the first two wins here at the Big A. Englehart wins with 26% of his runners that won their last start, but this will be a good test considering the potential pace duel early amongst the top three choices.
6 – Flush – similar to the 4, she’ll have the perfect outside stalking position if she chooses to take up that role. The win in the last came on the lead against a soft field with no pace, so what is she really capable of?
Race 9
1 – Regalian – loves the Big A and has fired at today’s distance in the past; should be able to save ground inside and use the possible hot pace to pick them off down the lane.
9 – Professor Snape – he’s 6 for 8 ITM locally and could be firing from the gate. He’s been able to rate a little in the past as well, so not necessarily cooked if this thing goes fast.
7 – O Shea Can U See – no excuse for the last as he was just not on his game, but Servis is too good to toss, especially in a dirt sprint with a horse that has won three of his last six.
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 2/9/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Total: 137: 31-26-12, -16.4% ROI ($274 wagered, $229.10 returned)
- Win Rate = 22.6%
- ITM Rate = 50.4%