Welcome to opening Sunday of the Santa Anita Fall 2019 meet. We had a good summer at Del Mar, managing to keep a positive flat bet ROI and hitting a few prices along the way. As I’m writing this on Friday morning, it will be worth paying attention to how the Santa Anita main track plays on Friday and Saturday. The track has received a new dirt surface, and it may play slower or differently than the SA track of the past. Watch a few races and be prepared to adapt. Here we go!
Race 1: Clm 12500b 6 Furlongs
Picks: 6-3-5-4
We kick off the day with a maiden special weight sprint for 2-year-old colts. Bob Baffert enters two in this loaded field, and #6 Hero’s Reward is the one I’m most interested in. A $450,000 son of Flatter purchased as a yearling at the Keeneland September sale, this one gets the services of typical Baffert pilot Drayden Van Dyke despite the presence of another Baffert trainee entered as well. Flatter offspring win 11% of their debut races, and this Gary & Mary West juvenile appears the one to beat. Keep an eye on the tote, however, and if the other Baffert or different first time starter takes significant money it could signal one that is live. #3 Thunder Code was off slow in his debut but rallied nicely to finish third to stakes-bound American Theorem. If that one comes back to run well on Friday then Thunder Code deserves an upgrade. With a start under his belt, expect him to step forward here. #5 Great Power makes his debut for Callaghan, who does very well with a limited number of starters. First call pilot Prat takes the mount for a colt whose sire, Blame, gets 13% debut winners. The dam has produced 6 winners from 7 starters but none won at 2.
Race 2: 1 Mile [F] Mdn 61k
Picks: 2-1-5-4
Race 2 gives us a small field of 5 in a claiming nonwinners of 2 lifetime affair. Despite the small field, 4 of these 5 horses appear to do their best running on or just off the lead. That leads me to reluctantly taking the only closer #2 Fifteen to Vegas as the top pick. This horse is lightly raced and has a big closing kick, but he hasn’t had much pace to run at in his last few events. He appears a step too slow on paper, but I’m projecting a hot pace and I think he figures most logical to come running late. There are a lot of “career losers” in this field – horses who are 1 for 20 something lifetime, so I’ll try to avoid those and go with the #1 Seahawk Wave as the next selection. Oftentimes when a race looks full of speed, the best option is to take the speed of the speed rather than try to figure which speed horse can learn to rate, and I think the 1 is the fastest from the gate. He draws the rail, so you know he’s sending hard, and he wasn’t beaten by much in his last 2 starts at a tougher level than this. Returns to the scene of his lone victory here at SA. #5 Passing is the third selection. This horse is drawn outside all of the other speed, so if Fuentes can get him to rate, he could get a good setup. Wong is firing at a lethal percentage and everything out of this barn has been live lately.
Race 3: MC 20000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 5-3-2-1
#5 Alvaaro goes out as the morning line favorite for Doug O’Neill in this maiden claiming sprint. He ran a very good race last out, pressing a fast pace while coming off a 1 year layoff only to tire at the end. Gets a significant drop in class here and looks formidable. Garcia and O’Neill are teaming up at 31% the past 60 days. #3 Get On Your Pulpit is an interesting contender here. This 4 year old gelding has 9 starts with no wins but 4 second place finishes, but this is the first time he’s been dropped to this level. He is now second off a one year layoff and should show improvement today. #2 Mike Operator just missed last out, and the winner of that race, Black Storm, came back to win again in a claiming race at Los Alamitos. Fuentes and Garcia are firing at an absurd 63% (5 for 8) together the last 60 days, and I get the feeling you might get a slightly better price than the 9/5 ML.
Race 4: MC 30000 6 Furlongs
Picks: 8-3-5-1
#8 Nietzsche broke inwardly in his debut but acquitted himself nicely, taking dirt and passing horses to run a well beaten third. That was an oddly run race, with a quick opening quarter but the pace really slowed down after that as the leaders got away with a 24.3 second middle fraction breather. If he can break sharper and become more involved early he could be tough late. #3 Carpe Noctem appears the main threat for this bunch of 2-year-old colts. He is a little tough to endorse after fading a 5.5f at Los Al and now stretching out to 6f at SA, but he appears to be the main pacesetter in a race full of horses who lack early foot. Certainly looks capable of taking them gate to wire, but wouldn’t feel great about using him prominently. #5 Golden Victory takes a drop from maiden claiming $50,000 company after running an even fifth in his debut. Fuentes are Garcia are on fire together (see above paragraph for stats), and he’s another to consider for a trainer who does well with second career starters (19%).
Race 5: Zenyatta-G2 11/16 Mile
Picks: 4-1-5-2
The Grade 2 Zenyatta Stakes gives us a much-anticipated rematch of the Grade 1 Hirsch. #4 Ollies Candy pulled off a minor upset in that race after looking beaten in the stretch but digging in gamely to pull back in front by a head. Four-year-old filly has tons of versatility, able to make the lead or sit off the pace depending how the race unfolds. #1 Secret Spice is the other logical contender here. She looked home free when pulling alongside Ollies Candy last out but hung badly. She gets back to her favorite track at Santa Anita, and I expect Prat to have her a little closer to the pace this time. It’s tough to imagine a scenario where one of the top two choices don’t fire here, but if something unusual happens #5 La Force would be the logical contender to pick up the pieces. She is as consistent as the day is long, but will need an honest pace in front of her to set up her big closing kick. If the new surface plays more towards closers she is one to consider.
Race 6: OC 40000b 5½ Furlongs (T)
Picks: 6-5-2-3
#6 Anonymously is the top pick in the first turf race of the day. These races have historically been dominated by horses with early speed, and Anonymously has early speed by the boatload. That being said, she has routinely been sent routing, which clearly is not her best game. I love her finally cutting back to sprints where she has performed her strongest. She is not a need the lead type, and should get an excellent trip on or just off of the pace drawn outside. #5 Dearborn is the main pace rival to Anonymously. She was very impressive last out, drawing away over next out winner G Q Covergirl. She ran a career effort in her last race, but with over a month to recover I imagine she should be ready to go. #2 Moreisbetter possesses speed figures from Spring that are nearly good enough to win this race, but she seems to have gone off form lately. Perhaps she didn’t care for the Del Mar turf course. She now gets a rider upgrade to turf ace Prat and has early speed at her disposal if Prat chooses to send. Interesting at a price.
Race 7: Clm 25000b 6½ Furlongs
Picks: 5-6-3-2
#5 Jen Go Unchained appears to be a tough favorite to get around in this spot. He has tactical speed but has shown he is content to sit behind the leaders and make a move into the turn. Drops in to N2L company after running in a starter allowance last out and looms the one to beat. #6 Shake N Fries is an interesting player here, as he was claimed in his last outing which was his first race in 9 months. Miyadi is a very sharp claiming trainer, and for him to claim a three-year-old off such a lengthy layoff means he must have saw something he liked on this one. #3 Into a Hot Spot clearly did not care for the turf in his last outing. He’s also shown a dislike for muddy or sloppy tracks. If you focus only on his races held on a fast surface, he owns speed figures that are competitive in this spot. Gets class relief and returns to a sprint, and he should get a fair pace in front of him to set up a nice mid-race move.
Race 8: Mdn 50k 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 9-7-5-4
We conclude the card with a turf route for 3-year-old and up maidens. #9 Mo Forza lost in a tight photo last out when facing 80k Allowance company. An effort similar to that should make him a fairly easy winner against this group today. Look for him to sit off the pace and make an outside move turning for home. Norberto is 31% with a massive $6.45 ROI riding for Miller the last 60 days. #7 Never Easy has not shown the affinity for passing horses, so Mandella adds blinkers here to the naturally speedy colt. He improved last out second off the layoff, so it’s fair to expect another move forward today. Expect this one to send early and try to take them all the way. There no reason why #5 Parsimony couldn’t win this race on paper. He has early speed, his speed figures are competitive, and he has strong connections. I have to think O’Neill and Reddam Racing may have really botched the development on this 3-year-old colt by repeatedly sending him to races he had no business being in. This young colt has raced an astronomical 16 times already, and appears in need of a break for the winter. However, I fully expect him be involved and in the money when it’s all said and done, just hard to endorse on top.