Stakes Preview: Swale Stakes, Saturday, February 1, 2020, by Andrew Rdesinski

  1. Mischevious Alex- Irad Ortiz Jr.- John Servis
    1. As one of the main pace setters in this field, this Mid Atlantic shipper from the John Servis barn seems to be a legit contender. Coming from small 2yo stakes at Monmouth, Laurel, and Parx he is coming into this race a little light on the class side in my opinion. 7 Furlongs is a unique distance and the face his best race came at the distance on the front end is definitely a plus. Irad gets aboard today too, which is always a plus. I like him in this spot but he will need to be close or on the lead in order to win. 
  2. Untitled- Jose Ortiz- Mark Casse
    1. Untitled should of had a title after his debut but obviously you don’t get any awards for a MSW in december. However, he earned a 98 beyer and won by 11 in a 12 horse field. Jose Ortiz gets aboard now since the bigger races are more important and the bigger riders get 1st call. I think that if he gets the lead early he can be deadly. Gary Barber seems to always have these amazing horses in his ownership and this one might be another champion.
  3. Flash Pass- Edgar Prado- E. Loza Jr.
    1. Flash pass ran a similar race as the 2 in debut when it comes to lengths won by. However, it was in a dismal Maiden $12,500 and he only earned a 68 beyer. Edgar Prado is pretty old these days but still is hitting on a 21% clip. This horse can improve however in my opinion but he will need to do a lot of it in order to win this race. 
  4. Green Light Go- Javier Castellano- James Jerkins
    1. Green Light go seems to be another pace horse but his Saratoga Special race proves he can sit off the pace and still win. This will be his first race since October and his first race in Florida. He is the most consistent horse and probably the most versatile. He has been working amazingly since coming to Palm Meadows and also as a 3yo. I think he might be the most likely winner.
  5. Shivaree- Esmaeil Jaramillo- Ralph Nicks
    1. Shivaree is definitely the most experienced in this field. He has won three straight smaller stakes races at Gulfstream and Gulfstream park west. He has good figures however and has a win as a 3yo. I think if the pace collapses he can pick the pieces up and win but will have to step up in class a tad in order to compete.  
  6. Necker Island- Tyler Gaffalione- Stanley Hough
    1. Necker Island is another pace horse who hasn’t faced stakes competition yet. His speed figures have been increasing in each race. However he hasn’t run since November and hasn’t run in Florida yet. He has been training well and gets a red hot Tyler Gaffalione aboard. I like this horse today but I think he needs to do a lot more to win today.
  7. Inter Miami- Paco Lopez- Alexis Delgado
    1. As the weekend in Miami seems to be already jam packed, we have Inter Miami running in the Swale today. However, this is one of only two horses that I do not like at all in this race. He ran horribly against stakes competition and seems to be a little slower than the rest. I think the connections are slightly below average as well. 
  8. Point Winner- Santiago Gonzalez- Oscar Gonzalez
    1. Point winner is going to be the longest shot on the board and is the first toss I seen in this race. His speed figures are about 15 to 20 points less than the average and he is a one pace fella. I will be looking elsewhere.

TOP PICKS

#4 Green Light Go

#1 Mischevious Alex

#2 Untitled

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