Gulfstream Park – February 15, 2020
Twitter: @bmata85
Gulfstream Park Daily Gallop Selections: 34/119 (29%, $2.45)
*Does not include off the turf races where turf selections were made
Best Bet:
- Race 4: #3 U S Army Corps (6-1 ML)
- Race 7: #8 Express Pharoah (8-1 ML)
Race 1 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 5 F
Selections: 3-5-2
The card kicks off with an interesting mix of first time starters and experienced runners sprinting 5 furlongs on the turf. The field is led by Wesley Ward’s daughter of American Pharoah, (#3) American Goddess. In debut, she put in a solid rally from off the pace into fast fractions finishing a decent fourth. Now she’ll try the boys in her second career start. Ward has solid numbers sprinting second time out on the turf at the maiden special weight level, hitting a 23% clip ($1.65 ROI). It’s a bit of a projection but the sense is that this filly will be much closer to the pace than her debut. That day she broke well but lugged into the 6 horse next to her, preventing her from obtaining a forward position. Ward runners, especially younger ones, tend to feature more speed and are generally more forward. With a cleaner break she figures to take a nice step forward in career start number two. (#5) Union Colonel presents a chalky second choice, but figures to be a logical player off his effort last out. 2nd off the layoff and returning to turf, he managed to rate just off fast fractions, making a nice run at the wire to wire winner. While the pace figures came up strong for the early fractions, there is some hesitancy to assess the difficulty of running near the pace as both pace setters ran 1-2. Regardless, the figure came back strong and Union Colonel took a nice step forward off the layoff and should be ready to fire his best 3rd off the break. Of the first time starters, (#2) Uncle George has the look of a runner who could show some potential. While it seems that this runner may ultimately want to go longer, he is a half to stakes winning turf sprinter Epping Forest. Furthermore, Christophe Clement is a solid 15%, but more importantly sports a $2.50 ROI with first time starters sprinting on the turf at the maiden special weight level. The $310k purchase price indicates that the expectations are there & while the distance may be too short, he could hit the board on talent alone.
Race 2 – 3YO ST ALW $33k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-9-5
The start of the early pick 4 is one of the more perplexing races on the card as there is no clear stand out. While a number of runners come off trainer switches and/or maiden wins, none of these angles produce particularly compelling trainer stats and those who have been running at the 3YO starter allowance have yet to produce any types trips that are worthy of a bet back. (#4) Just a Bit Sassy earns the top selections as she sports the best last out turf figure. That did come against maiden claiming company but it was in debut, leaving her room for further improvement. Mary Eppler has okay numbers in these types of situations — 17% ($1.41ROI) second off the claim on turf. The field she beat that day has come back to produce very little, but Just a Bit Sassy dominated the field, never looking like a loser and winning by a convincing four and a half lengths. She proved in debut she could sit off speed and make one run going a route of ground. (#9) Hartling should sit a similar trip to Just a Bit Sassy, rating off a few inside speed horses (#1 Napa Rules, #2 Yolanda’s Pride, #5 Joyous Times). She certainly needs to improve off the last out $20k claiming victory but ran well in her first career turf start. Given Pino’s solid numbers first off the claim on turf (17% $2.54 ROI) it’s certainly not outside her scope to take a step forward on the trainer change. (#2) Yolanda’s Pride, (#3) Little Bit Good, and (#5) Joyous Times make up the second fight of competitors, but they admittedly seem tough to separate. (#5) Joyous Times gets the nod for the 3rd selection as she comes off maiden claiming debut but Steve Klesaris is an incredibly bad 0 for 36 off turf trainer switches.
Race 3 – 3YO MSW $50k – DIrt – 7 F
Selections: 4-7-2
(#4) Liam’s Point, the son of former Todd Pletcher trainee, Liam’s Map, earns the top selection. He’s been hyped by #HorseRacingTwitter, but the question remains will he deliver?
Race 4 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 7 F
Selections: 3-10-8-9
The 4th race features turf runners from a few of the higher profile barns — Chad Brown, Todd Pletcher, Shug McGaughey, and Danny Gargan all send out runners who look formidable in this spot. Of those, I’ve landed on Shug’s (#3) U S Army Corps, who on paper looks to have put in three non-efforts. However, I think the last two have excuses that are not evident by his running lines. Two back, after going off as the 2-1 second choice, he rated off a slow pace in a race that saw none of the top five finishers change position. Given the dynamics of the race, he never possessed a serious chance. Two back, he again rated off the pace and had the look of a horse who was making a big run on the far turn entering the stretch. However, he flattened out badly in the stretch, finishing a distant 5th. That effort came at a time that the Aqueduct turf course was heavily favoring inside runners and U S Army Corps spent a majority of his move on the turn in the three and four paths, ultimately ending up in the five path in the stretch. Shug brings him back off a slight layoff and has decent numbers in these situations — 3 for 12 (25%, 7 ITM, $1.48 ROI) off 90 to 120 in turf maiden special weight events. Given the excuses and presence of other top trainers, U S Army Corps should go off at a considerable overlay. I’ve filled out the remainder of the selections with logical selections. (#10) Voodoo Zip did sit a perfect trip last out but ran well regardless, nearly running down a talented Christophe Clement colt. He’s shown in both career starts that he does possess tactical speed that allows him to sit ideal trips. Todd Pletcher sends out (#8) Time for Trouble who despite being ice cold on the board for a Pletcher firster (11/1) put in a solid closing effort. He was the benefactor of a solid opening quarter but was still impressive for a debut performance. He comes off a seven month layoff but Pletcher has a solid percentage off similar breaks (21%, only $1.33 ROI) on turf off 180-300 in MSW company. A step forward off this debut makes him a logical player. (#9) Vintage Print is a tough horse to assess as the $1.8 million dollar purchase features no turf pedigree on the dam side to support the surface switch. The son of Curlin has been nothing short of a failure on the dirt, with two non-competitive efforts. With that said, no one will be surprised when Chad Brown wins in this spot, despite the lack of turf pedigree. Even with the poor efforts, he’ll likely be an underlay given the connections.
Race 5 – 4+ ST ALW $31k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 3-8-2
Race 5 brings together an extremely competitive group of starter allowance horses. In a field of eight, a case can be made for all. Given the competitiveness of the field, the race will largely rely on pace dynamics and trips. For that reason, I’ve landed on (#3) Vincero, who enters this race first off the claim for trainer Kelly Breen. Breen has excellent numbers first off the claim on dirt, hitting at 24% with a $1.80 ROI. Furthermore, Vincero figures to be on the lead in a race that features a lack of pace. He’s shown an affinity for Gulfstream hitting the board in 10 of 12 career starts at the track, including 4 for 4 at the distance. If Breen intends to send him to the lead, he’s named the perfect rider to do so, with Paco Lopez aboard. After VIncero, I have no real strong opinions as a case could be made for a number of entrants for the second position. (#8) Candy Crushem could be an overlay coming off back to back poor turf efforts, however, his only three dirt efforts are considerably better than any of his turf or synthetic starts. While those races came against slightly weaker at Thistledown, the figures earned in those races make him a player in this spot. On the concerning side, trainer Monica McGoey is only 1 for 9 (11%, $1.73 ROI) first off the claim on dirt. However, at what should be a decent price, the small sample size can be ignored. (#2) Charlie the Greek figures to improve off a serious trainer upgrade to Bob Hess who is 18% with a $1.83 ROI first off the claim on dirt. He adds blinkers for the first time in Charlie the Greek’s 50 start career but Hess has surprisingly strong numbers with this move, winning with 3 of 13 runners (23%, $3.00 ROI) adding blinkers first off the claim on dirt. He’ll need to run one of his better races but this six year old gelding generally fires a competitive effort and gets a significant barn change. .
Race 6 – 4+ CLM $16k N3L – Turf – 1 1/16 M
Selections: 7-11-12
Race 7 – 3YO MSW $50k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 8-9-7
The 7th brings together a competitive group of three year old colts, evident by seven runners being listed between 7-2 and 8-1 on the morning line. While not the morning line favorite, the likely post time favorite figures to be (#9) Pricing Exercise, debuting for the dangerous Chad Brown barn. Brown hits with a solid 18% of first time starters on the turf at Gulfstream. While I have no major knocks on this runner, I’ve ultimately landed on (#8) Express Pharoah as my top selection. This runner moves from the dirt to the turf after three unsuccessful dirt attempts. Given the pedigree, Express Pharaoh should be able to take a big step forward on the turf. American Pharoah has been a prolific turf sire to this point hitting with 17% of turf starters. Furthermore, the dam was a stakes winner on turf and a half to two other turf winners. As mentioned, the dirt starts were poor but at least he showed some ability last out setting a fast pace before fading — a big improvement from his two year old starts. In a similar vein, (#7) Unconquered Lea switches from dirt to turf with a solid turf pedigree. Lea hits with an average 11% of turf starters but the dam was a four time winner on turf. Unconquered Lea also put in a solid 5 of 44 turf work, further supporting he’ll successfully make the move to turf.
Race 8 – 3YO ALW $51k N1x – Dirt – 7 F
Selections: 8-3-7
The 8th features of a number of runners who’s connections are hoping this non-winners of one allowance race serves as a jumping off point for much bigger races. (#3) Cost Basis, (#7) Silver Ratio and (#8) Violent City all recently put in up strong maiden breaking efforts and figure to have a strong hold over today’s field. Of that group, I slightly prefer (#8) Violent City who was a rare debut winner for Ian Wilkes. Hitting at just 5% with dirt debuters at the maiden special weight level, Violent City was an impressive winner, showing early speed and a nice burst in the stretch to draw off and win by four lengths. The second place finisher, 3-5 favorite Palm Springs, has since come back to win, further validating the Violent City effort. Wilkes is a very solid 5 for 13 (38%, $3.01 ROI) with runners in their second career start after winning in debut. (#3) Cost Basis is a logical alternative after breaking his maiden in career start number four. That day he grinded a victory against a maiden field that’s come back to be about as impressive as one can be. It’s produced four next out winners, including Modernist who recently won a division of the Risen Star. Given the presence of (#1) Ralston and (#6) Wicked Temptations, Cost Basis should be able to sit a ground saving trip behind the pace setters, making one run similar to the maiden breaking score. Chad Brown is a solid 23% ($1.04 ROI) with dirt maiden winners coming back at the allowance level. Todd Pletcher sends out (#7) Silver Ratio who won against a weaker maiden special weight field, especially with 2nd place finisher Mr. Pilly Dilly coming back to run poorly. He’ll need to improve off that but Pletcher does have excellent numbers with maiden debut winners coming back at the allowance level — 29%, $1.78 ROI. Overall, I’m relying on one of the three maiden breakers to take a big step forward and likely move into graded stakes competition.
Race 9 – Grade 3 World of Trouble Stakes $100k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 2-1-4-8
I’m not trying to beat (#2) Lasting Legacy in the Grade 3 World of Trouble– he just looks to have a strong hold over the field. While he returns to the Grade 3 level, he finds a significantly easier field without the presence of Diamond Oops, Imperial Hint and X Y Jet. He did receive a favorable pace setting that day but still ran well to nearly run down Diamond Oops. Given the presence of inside (#1) Epic Dreamer and outside speed (#8) Yorkton, the pace should be honest enough for Lasting Legacy to rate & make one run similarly to his Mr. Prospector effort. (#4) Admiral Lynch is a logical selection moving into the Jason Servis barn. While his prior races have come at the allowance level, he’s run figures that put him in the mix with all contenders outside of Lasting Legacy. He has tactical speed that will allow him to sit an ideal trip behind the pace setters & adapt to any pace scenario.(#8) Yorkton is a turf and synthetic sprinter who will be trying dirt for only the third time in his career. Runners such as these are generally bet-againsts as they’re often bet based on turf figures. However, Yorkton’s work tab on dirt at Palm Meadows is littered with bullet works. His other dirt races from a speed figure perspective compare favorably to his turf/syn races at the time, indicating he can run on all three surfaces. Simon is a good enough 4 for 17 (24%, $1.47) going from synthetic to dirt.
Race 10 – 4+ AOC $52k N2x/$62.5k – Turf – 1 M
Selections: 4-7-9
The 10th finds an ultra competitive group of allowance optional claiming turf horses going a mile on the turf. Given the competitive nature of the field I’ve landed on three double digit prices as my top selections. (#4) Penalty comes off an extended layoff, but Bill Mott has solid numbers returning off such breaks — 19%, $1.89 ROI off 150-210 on the turf. Prior to the break Penalty was developing nicely as a four year old, finally breaking through the N1x level against a competitive group at Saratoga. While he did take a number of starts to break through the condition, his running lines are filled with excellent turf horses such as Raging Bull, Lemonist, Voting Control and Halladay. He’s shown a versatility and tactical speed that should allow him to sit a perfect trip behind a solid early pace. The former $1.3M purchase (#7) Mustaaqeem (AUS) has been a disappointment so far in the United States but seemed to wake up when stretching out to a mile last out on the Gulfstream turf course. That day he rated behind horses and made an excellent stretch run making up significant ground despite closing into a slow pace. With more pace projected in today’s affair, Mustaaqeem should have a much better setup. (#9) Empire of War gets one more opportunity from me before the divorce. He’s put in essentially two non-efforts since switching to the Mike Maker barn, however, he arguably faces an easier field than those two stakes attempt. Additionally, the pace should set up well for his closing style.
Race 11 – 3YO Any Limit Stakes $75k – Dirt – 6 F
Selections: 5-2-3
While the Any Limit Stakes drew a field of eight fillies, the race runs through the two morning line favorites (#5) Frank’s Rockette and (#2) Sound Machine. Of the two, I prefer Frank’s Rockette. This filly was a rare Bill Mott debut winner when sprinting at Churchill. From there, the filly did nothing wrong with three straight 2nd place finishes against some of the better two year old fillies. She returns off a slight break, supporting a solid work tab and Mott hits at a solid 18% off 120-180 day layoffs. While it’s hard to knock Sound Machine’s performance last out in the Glitter Woman Stakes, it came against a significantly weaker field than anything Frank’s Rockette has been running against. Additionally, Sound Machine would need to take a big step forward just to match the races that Frank’s Rockette was running over four months ago. On paper, it certainly seems like a two horse race as both figure to sit ideal trips behind the likely pace setters in (#1) Tale of Success and (#8) Belladonnia. (#3) Yesterdayoncemore (IRE) presents an interesting case at what should be a 20-1+ price. She’s not fast or good enough based on her prior turf races but trainer Patrick Biancone has had recent success moving turf horses to the dirt (most recently Sam F Davis winner Sole Volante). The pedigree is filled with Euro turf horses, but obviously Biancone is aware of this as well. Her recent dirt works indicate that she could take a step forward on the dirt, potentially hitting the board at a big price.
Race 12 – 4+ AOC $51k N1x/$35k – Dirt – 1 M
Selections: 2-5-3
I’m going to take a shot with (#2) Be Gone Daddy in the night cap. I fully admit he’s not the likelist winner of the race, but will present value at anywhere near the 20-1 morning line price. Given the amount of speed and front running types signed on the pace figures to be contentious, setting up for Be Gone Daddy. His last two efforts are no where good enough to compete with this group, but they did come over the quirky Tampa Bay Downs course that some horses don’t take to at times. He’s proven an affinity for the Gulfstream surface with a career record of 7: 3-1-1, including 1 for 2 at today’s 1M distance. He should also appreciate the trainer switch to Monica McGoey, who’s a solid 3 for 13 (23%, $6.73 ROI) off trainer switches on dirt. (#5) Blewitt is a logical alternative as what figures to be a significantly lower price than his 10-1 morning line. His effort last out off the layoff was incredibly disappointing as he was sent off the 2-1 2nd choice but tired badly, finishing a distant 5th. While Pletcher has strong numbers off layoffs, it’s possible that he needed the race and does sport back races that make him a major player in this spot. He does run the risk of being involved in the aforementioned contentious early pace but at least has shown the ability to rate. Similarly to Blewitt, (#3) Weather Wiz comes 2nd off the layoff after putting in back to back poor efforts after a promising start to his career. He may improve 2nd off the long layoff but it’s concerning that Jerkens drops him down for just a $35k tag. If he runs back to his prior form he’s a major player, but there are doubts as those efforts came over a year ago. I have no major issues with the shorter prices on the outside — (#8) Tap the Mojo, (#10) Dinar and (#11) Lemniscate — but at short prices they don’t stand out in a deep competitive race.