Green Flash
- Sparky Ville- Smith/ Bonde
- This 5 furlong turf sprint for the boys drew a very solid field. Sparky Ville drew in as the Morning Line favorite breaking from the rail. Mike Smith returns today after a win in a prep for this so he should be fit and ready to go for this Graded stakes race. The rail should help him because he likes to sit mid pack and Mike Smith should be able to get him comfortable. He has struggled against stakes companies before but also has shined before but it was on the dirt. I think Sparky Ville has a legitimate shot to win today and the morning line is deserving.
- Irish Heatwave- Cedillo/ O’Neill
- Irish Heatwave is a route horse cutting back to a sprint. Cedillo is a good turf rider but to me he is better on dirt but I think he picked a good mount here to keep. I think the cutback should be okay for him but in sprints he struggles compared to a flat mile. I think if he shows the early speed he showed in January at the Fair Grounds when he went 5.5 F on the turf then he can be sneaky here. He might be a little too slow however and he is outclassed here today. I will be looking elsewhere.
- Baja Sur- Hernandez/ Wright
- Baja Sur definitely fits here. JJ has been riding very well at Del Mar so far and has ridden this horse plenty of times before today. He will most definitely show speed early as he might be able to control the speed today. I think dirt is his preferred surface but he takes to the turf really well also. Will be using on tickets.
- Torosay- Figueroa/ O’ Neill
- Torosay just seems to not like to win. Figueroa is a good jockey but nothing special. This horse shows a lot of speed early but usually is more of a presser than a pacesetter. He is winless at Del Mar and I don’t see him winning again today. He will need a strong pace to pressure in order to get a winning trip.
- Mesut- Prat/ Gaines
- Mesut is an interesting gelding here. He has ran two decent performances and is coming out of a route performance in prep for this race. Prat gets the mount over Rispoli and it makes sense to me. Carla Gaines is a sneaky good trainer out west but she doesn’t usually have a lot of horses to run so her numbers are lower. This horse is a closer and at 5F it is hard to close like this gelding tries too. Prat will have to keep him close in order to have a shot so if he shuffles back early it might be over.
- Thanks Mr. Edison- Fuentes/ Bonde
- I think this colt is much better on the dirt than the turf. I can see why they would take a shot here but I think he is outclassed and just slower than the bunch. His early pace could benefit him but I don’t see much with this colt.
- Chaos Theory- Rispoli/ Sadler
- Rispoli gets the mount for Sadler today and I think Chaos Theory is a live mount here. He is coming out of better races than most in this field. The closing kick should be enough here and Rispoli is the best turf rider out there. I like Chaos Theory a ton here so I will be using on top.
- Mikes Tiznow- Gonzalez/ Mathis
- Mikes Tiznow will be the leader early on. I think Ricky should be sending hard here and loves the turf. It is a huge step up in class for him but I think he can handle it. I think the early pace should be key here. I will be using underneath.
TOP PICKS
#7 Chaos Theory
#3 Baja Sur
#1 Sparky Ville
Del Mar Oaks
- Carpe Vinium- Gryder-/ D’ Amato
- Carpe Vinium is breaking from the rail and usually Abel Cedillo rides her but today they lose Cedillo to the Peter Miller horse and they use Aaron Gryder. I think the horse is a little outclassed today as she struggled in the China Doll back in March. I think the longer the better with her but today I think she just won’t get it done due to lack of speed and class and the jockey downgrade.
- California Kook- Maldonado/ Miller
- I usually like Maldonado on turf when he has a pace horse but today he has a closer. California Kook is a closer and she gets a downgrade in jockey as Rispoli and Prat both take more legitimate horses in this field. This is the lesser of the two Miller horses here in this field. I think she will need a pace collapse in order to close but she has an outside chance.
- Miss Extra (FR)- Rispoli- Mandella
- Miss Extra is coming to America for the first time today. She will continue to run without lasix and she has been in good form this year until the most recent outing. Rispoli is a great turf rider and he should know how to handle an European horse coming to America for the first time. Miss Extra seems to be able to run in this type of class but it will all come down to the type of grass she runs over today. It most likely will differ from France but I think she will do just fine and she is one of my top choices here.
- Warren’s Showtime- Smith/ Lewis
- Warren’s Showtime gets big Money Mike Smith here for the first time. Velez usually rides her but doesn’t today as they switch to Mike Smith. I think the stretch out is huge today and I think the San Clemente proved that she can compete. I think she is a great closer but can actually sit mid pack today and still win. It all comes down to Mike Smith and if he gives her a good trip or not. Must use on tickets for me.
- Aqua Seaform Shame- Fuentes- Batlas
- Aqua Seaform Shame is a lightly raced filly here and has been improving in each start. I think the stretch out is her weakness. I think she can get it but going from 5F to 1M and 1/8th and against stakes company is a big hill to climb. I think she is live underneath but I don’t know if I can trust her to get the distance.
- Trickle In- Gonzalez/ Blacker
- I do not like Trickle In at all. I think Dan Blacker gets his horses ready very quickly for spots like this and that could benefit her today. But I think that she needs the lead in order to win and she might just be too slow to do that. I will be looking elsewhere.
- Red Lark (IRE)- Van Dyke- Gallagher
- Red Lark is very interesting. Van Dyke keeps the mount and the filly stretches out a little bit more today. Her race in the Wilshire was very good and she definitely could have used the added distance that day. Van Dyke is usually very good but I prefer him on the lead and not closing. I will be using underneath but not on top.
- Neige Blanche (FR)- Prat/ Powell
- Neige Blanche is another first time American horse and gets the other top jockey and especially top jockey on the turf in Prat. This filly has faced lesser than this competition in my opinion overseas but She is coming into form nicely. She gets lasix for the first time and the distance is very very doable. I will be using in every bet and she might just be in my top two choices.
- Parkour- Franco/ Mandella
- Parkour I think just totally doesn’t fit in here at all. Franco is a respectable rider but I think this horse is just way over her head here. She is slower by a lot in this field and she is outclassed. She should be sent early but I don’t see her making much of an impact.
- Laura’s Light- Cedillo/ Miller
- Laura’s Light might be the best filly in this field. She will be sent early and she keeps Cedillo here. Miller has two in this field and she should be the better one based off of her Past Performance line. I think the distance might be the only issue because she struggled late two back in the Honeymoon at the same distance. I will be using her but not on top but she is one of my top 3 picks.
- Guitty (FR)- Hernandez/ Powell
- Guitty is interesting but the post does negatively affect her. JJ has been doing well and I think this horse is very interesting . She has been running against Laura’s Light in basically every race she has run so far in her career and she has yet to beat her. She has been improving in her most recent starts but I think she might just not be quite good enough yet. Will be looking elsewhere but might include on tickets.
TOP PICKS:
#8 Neige Blanche
#10 Laura’s Light
#4 Warren’s Showtime