Saturday March 30th: Race 14 at Gulfstream Park. The $1,000,000 Grade 1 Xpressbet Florida Derby run at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 6:30PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Selections: 1-4-9
(1) Hidden Scroll: By all appearances this son of Hard Spun, trained by Bill Mott and ridden by Javier Castellano, is the key to determining the pace and flow of the Florida Derby.
On Saturday, Hidden Scroll will be making just his third career start following a brilliant debut in which he romped by 14 lengths going a mile over a sloppy track at Gulfstream Park against a field of $60K Maidens. His subsequent step up against graded stakes company last time out in the eight and a half furlong Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) earlier this month did not go as well as he was bumped leaving the gates, stumbled and then subsequently had to be hustled up to the front in order to establish position. Hidden Scroll then appeared quite keen to engage in a speed duel with longshot rival Gladiator King and as a result not only did he help set initial fractions of :224 and :453 but also that blazingly fast early pace took such a toll on him that he was unable to repel his challengers as the field turned for home and consequently faded to finish fourth down the stretch. The 120 TimeForm speed rating that he was awarded for his efforts in that race was and still is one of the highest speed figures earned by a runner contesting a Derby prep thus far this year. Yet, that fourth place finish with its associated five Kentucky Derby points left Hidden Scroll and his connections in a precarious position as now he needs to run either first or second on Saturday in order to accrue enough points to presumptively make it into the starting gates on May 4th at Churchill Downs. Mott believes that the key to achieving such a finish is to get his charge to relax and rate early on and as such he has been working with Hidden Scroll trying to teach him to rate in each of his two breezes since the Fountain of Youth over at Payson Park. Thus the pace scenario for the Florida Derby appears to hinge on whichever running style Hidden Scroll will employ whilst breaking from along the rail in post position one Saturday evening.
In each of his two prior efforts, Hidden Scroll had employed a pace-setting running style and while that worked out quite well in his career debut, it was his headstrong attitude and inability to back off, relax, and rate in the Fountain of Youth that ultimately cost him that race. Now logically, the rail draw in the Florida Derby suggests that Hidden Scroll needs to break quite well from the gates in order to establish forward position going into the short run-up for the first turn. TimeForm has bestowed upon Hidden Scroll a 150 Early Pace speed rating (which is absolutely unheard of for a colt this young and is by far the fastest early pace figure in the entire field) and such a figure suggests that Hidden Scroll will rocket out of the gates and look to establish himself on the lead going into that first turn. It is what happens after the initial break that will be the key to determining the flow of the race. If no other runners decide to go on up and contest the initial pace with Hidden Scroll and instead decide to rate or stalk behind him and apply pace pressure, Hidden Scroll could end up setting relatively quick early fractions (likely not nearly as fast as those in the Fountain of Youth, but still fairly fast) and the resulting pace would likely help set up the race for the mid-pack stalkers and closers as the field turns for home.
However, if any other rivals in this field do decide to be forwardly placed and on the lead, Castellano may elect to try and take Hidden Scroll back (the key word being “try” here) and instead rate along the outside of that runner. This could be somewhat difficult to achieve especially if there are other horses in the field that want to employ a similar tactic and the resulting pace would likely be much more pedestrian which in turn would favor only those horses on or near the early lead. Personally, I believe that regardless of how Hidden Scroll has been training, if he is able to break well from the gates, he will be keen to go to the front and no matter what Castellano tries to do, Hidden Scroll will not want to rate in this race. Plus there is always the inherent risk of facing kickback in Hidden Scroll’s face if Castellano elects to rate and it is unknown as to how this colt will react as he has never experienced something like that before.
For Hidden Scroll to win this edition of the Florida Derby, he will not only need to withstand pace pressure from his rivals early on and not be goaded into setting another blazingly fast initial pace but he will also need to have enough stamina and speed left in reserve such that he can repel all of his challengers as the field turns for home. Although both Mott and Castellano have been having solid meets thus far (20% and 19% win rates respectively) leading into the closing days of this meet at Gulfstream Park, it needs to be noted that over the course of his career Mott has gone 0-15 with runners trying a route for the second time in graded stakes races following layoffs of 50 days or less. Hidden Scroll certainly has the talent and ability to win this race and as such should be regarded as a major contender in this field, yet as he is the 5/2 Morning Line favorite and his odds are expected to dip even lower by post time, he does not offer much value in this race and should be used for defensive purposes only here.
(4) Bourbon War: The barn of trainer Mark Hennig sends out this son of Tapit, looking to build upon a very solid second place finish in the Fountain of Youth earlier this month. In that race, Bourbon War, with jockey Irad Ortiz Jr at the helm, sat back much further than normal whilst chasing those incredibly fast fractions being set by Hidden Scroll and Gladiator King. As the field turned for home, Ortiz tipped out his charge into the six path, and Bourbon War took off like a jet fighter down the stretch such that he nearly caught rival Code of Honor (the eventual winner) at the wire. The 115 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for taking advantage of that very beneficial early pace setup is a solid enough figure but Bourbon War will likely need to take another step forward on Saturday in order to be considered truly competitive in this field.
For those individuals that analyze gallop outs, the one that this colt had immediately following the conclusion of the Fountain of Youth was a gallop out to rave about. Bourbon War easily went past Code of Honor, which not only suggests that he should be able to handle the additional half furlong stretchout on Saturday but also that he still had some stamina left in reserve, all positive signs that point to him running well in this race. Furthermore, Bourbon War possesses a 110 TimeForm Late Pace figure which bodes well for his chances of being successful in this race as it is the fastest late pace figure amongst the entire field by a wide margin and suggests that this colt will be absolutely flying late down the stretch.
Thus far in his first four career races, Bourbon War has primarily employed the running style of a mid-pack stalker and contrary to popular opinion it appears that he is not nearly as pace dependent as some analysis suggests. A glance at his running line in that $75K Optional Claiming win two starts back run at the same distance as the Fountain of Youth whilst stalking a much slower initial pace from mid-pack helps to establish this conclusion. Nevertheless, encountering another fast initial pace on Saturday in the Florida Derby would still certainly help his chances of scoring a minor upset over the likes of Hidden Scroll and Code of Honor whilst a much more pedestrian early pace with opening fractions of :24+ and :48+ would certainly compromise his ability to run well.
The key for Bourbon War to run well is for Ortiz to put his charge into the most ideal position early on such that when the field turns for home, this colt has a clear running lane from whence to commence a drive to make a bid for the lead all the while without being forced to go too wide into that final turn. Ortiz has been having a fantastic meet thus far at Gulfstream and his 24% win rate from 515 starts is the best amongst all the riders in this field; additionally, he has been winning at an 18% clip when riding in route races over the past year. Bourbon War’s two most recent breezes over the surface at Gulfstream Park have been solid enough efforts and while they have not been particularly flashy, replays suggest that he has been able to maintain his fitness level and should be coming into this race in fine form. As it stands, Bourbon War currently has only 21 Kentucky Derby points which is not enough to get him into the starting gates on May 4th; as such, he will need to finish at least third on Saturday to accrue enough points to put him solidly into that field. There is no doubt that this colt is talented, has the pedigree to handle nine furlongs, and possesses an incredible late closing kick and if he can encounter a favorable pace scenario on Saturday, he might able to score a slight upset in this race and if not should at the very least still hit the board.
(9) Code of Honor: Trainer Shug McGaughey sends out this son of Noble Mission looking to build upon his impressive victory in the Fountain of Youth earlier this month. In that race, Code of Honor with jockey John Velazquez aboard took full advantage of a beneficial rail draw as they were able to save ground throughout the initial stages of the race whilst sitting in mid-pack chasing the swift early fractions being set forth by Hidden Scroll and Gladiator King. Code of Honor commenced his move to make a bid for the lead at the quarter pole, was angled outside by Velazquez, subsequently drove clear past Hidden Scroll and was just able to hold off a hard-charging Bourbon War to win by three quarters of a length at the wire. The 118 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for his efforts was a career best and ranks amongst the fastest speed figures earned by winners of prep races this year.
However, while that Fountain of Youth performance can be attributed to Shug having properly prepared his charge (unlike the effort Code of Honor put forth in the $100K Mucho Macho Man Stakes at the beginning of the year after going into the race without being fully prepared for it), it should be noted that Code of Honor was a major beneficiary of that swift initial pace scenario which created an ideal set up for his running style. Whilst Code of Honor might not receive such an advantageous early pace in this race and the outside draw (he breaks from post position nine on Saturday) is far from perfect, this colt certainly can the ability to be able to handle those challenges and still run quite well even against this field.
Thus far throughout his career, Code of Honor has displayed an incredibly versatile running style as he has been competitive when employing not only a pace-setting running style but also when stalking from mid-pack as well as when closing from well back. Such adaptability should be a major asset to him given the unpredictability of the initial pace in this race as it all appears to hinge on how Hidden Scroll decides to run.
The TimeForm Pace Projector has gone so far as to suggest that Code of Honor might be amongst the first flight of runners stalking the pace being set forth by Hidden Scroll and while that appears to be a little far-fetched, it is not out of the realm of possibility. However, it is much more likely that Velazquez will try and sit back early on and stalk from mid-pack before moving up into contention as the field turns for home whereupon he can unleash a bid to challenge for the lead. The outside post draw is a little disadvantageous to Code of Honor as there is a short run up to the first turn at Gulfstream Park and normally that would require a jockey to tuck in and cover up his mount in order to save ground and avoid being fanned wide on the turn. Unfortunately Velazquez is not known for doing that as he prefers to position his mounts on the outside of the field such that they have a clear running lane at all times which allows them to be able to make a move to get into contention whenever the opportunity presents itself.
Since his victory in the Fountain of Youth, Code of Honor has been breezing very well for Shug over the surface at Payson Park and by all accounts appears to be in excellent form heading into this race. Shug has been having a very solid meet at Gulfstream thus far as he has been winning at a 23% rate with a limited number of starters (just 52). In addition, over the past three years, he has compiled a 19% win rate (49% in the money finishes) with runners contesting route races. Moreover, when riding for Shug over the past 60 days Velazquez has won with 38% of his mounts for the trainer and boasts a $3.28 R.O.I. Additionally, he has been winning at a 24% clip when riding in route races over the past year and has finished in the money 57% of the time from 240 starts. While Code of Honor has already accumulated 54 Kentucky Derby points and is solidly into the field for the Run for the Roses on May 4th, his connections are likely still expecting him to put forth another solid effort on Saturday. As a result, it would be no surprise to see Code of Honor run well once again and provided he can take another step forward from his Fountain of Youth effort, he might be able to take the Florida Derby as well and if not should be considered as a major contender for finishing on the board in this race.