Five of the six horses in this Grade 2 field are four year olds that are improving and could wind up being factors in the turf mile division by the end of the year. A strong effort here would likely earn some of these horses a chance to compete in the Grade 1 Fourstardave next month. This is a pretty wide open race and probably the best betting race of the three graded stakes at the Spa this weekend.
1: Seismic Wave: He makes his third start as a four year old today and it looks like he has progressed nicely from his three year old campaign. He made a long, sustained bid into a moderate pace, while moving four wide last time out. He wound up finishing a solid second, getting passed by Social Paranoia in the late stages of the race. Rosario opts to pick up the mount on Olympico for Chad Brown, but gaining Jose Ortiz is just fine. I think he’s live in here at a decent price.
2. Good Governance: He is one of two horses sent out by Chad Brown, and this one is only making his fourth career start. He debuted like a good thing, wearing down his more experienced stablemate here last August. He was narrowly defeated in the Saranac by Global Access, who was trending upward, running in his 10th career start. He returned off a layoff this year, looking as good as advertised, beating an allowance field by open lengths. My concern is that he is not likely going to offer much value, and he’s facing some battle tested horses here, in what will be the toughest group that he’s seen to date. He may emerge as the best horse that comes out of this race, but I’m not willing to take a short price on him today.
3. Somelikeithotbrown: Last time out, he got back to doing what he wants to do, which is compete in two turn races on turf. I would have liked to Cancel ration his speed a little better that day, as there was no early speed in that race, but he was ultra game, hanging on for third when, future Manhattan winner, Instilled Regard went by. He will have some pace pressure today with Halladay here breaking from post 6. He has proven he can sit off the lead, and I trust Gaffalione more than Cancel to make those decisions. He is proven on the course and has never been off the board on the grass going further than one mile. My biggest concern is that he may be a candidate to bounce off that big effort last time.
4. Mr. Dumas: Maker also trains this Kentucky based colt who beat a strong field of optional claiming allowance foes at Churchill two starts ago. I didn’t like his last race, when he disappointed as the favorite. The trouble line says 5 path, but I thought he got a great trip, and simply wasn’t good enough to beat a weaker field. I think he’s a cut below the others in this race.
5. Olympico: He makes his first start of the year after an interesting four year old campaign. I think he’d prefer a longer distance, and he could be using this race to get ready for Sword Dancer instead of the Fourstardave. He competed in this race last year, and it was his worst performance, albeit, while racing on a soft course. He has the ability to fire fresh though, as his best speed figure came in his first race off the layoff last season. He would greatly benefit from Somelikeithotbrown and Halladay contesting the early pace. If all the attention goes to Chad Brown’s other horse, this one could be overlooked and would be quite appealing at 6-1 or better.
6. Halladay: He last raced in May, winning the Sunshine Forever at Gulfstream, which proved to be a very nice 75K stakes race, producing future Grade 1 winner Aquaphobia and Grade 3 winner Social Paranoia. He has earned two big speed figures, while being loose on very easy leads in his last two starts. He has only been off the board one time in 12 career starts, however, that was his only career start in a graded stakes. However, he had a pretty rough trip that day where he was jostled at the break, didn’t get the forward position he wanted, then was bumped while making his move. I think Pletcher has been extremely patient with this one, letting him develop, before taking a bigger swing like he is doing today. I think he is very live in this spot today.
My Picks: 6-1-3