Saratoga Racing Analysis — Saturday, August 29, 2020, by Ivan Lopez

Great Saturday card with eleven races and three graded stakes scheduled. The Grade Is Forego and Sword Dancer serve as the feature, but the Grade II Amsterdam should be another very competitive race. Let’s get to the quick comments:

1st race: 6½ Furlongs. ™Clm 16000n2L Purse $33,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREEYEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES.

6-7-3

Happy Sophia (6) seems to be the fastest in here, and takes a considerable drop in class. Coming now from a much better post, I think its her race to lose. Enough Love (7) takes a bit of a drop in class and the race should set up nice for her. Saez will be stalking the early leaders and come with his winning move from the 3/16 pole on. The longshot here is Grey Jazmine (3), who was eased just a week ago and comes back quickly, testament that she came out fine, and now runs against restricted company. Watch out. 

2nd race: 1 1/16  Mile. (Turf) OC 62500n2x Purse $76,000 (UP TO $13,224 NYSBFOA) FORTHREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

4-8-6

Dream Friend (4) wasn’t able to get into the lead in his most recent. I think Luis Saez is a jockey that fits perfectly to his style, and I suspect he will send him right to the lead. I expect a better effort on his part. Spirit Animal (8) was racing in an uncomfortable position all the way thru his last race. Castellano now has an outside post and should have a nice set up for his late run. Ballagh Rocks (6) lost a very unlucky head bob in his last, in which he didn’t have pace to run at. Now he should get a more suitable pace. 

3rd race: 1 Mile. (Inner Turf) Saranac-G3 Saranac S. Grade III. Purse $100,000 INNER TURFFOR THREE YEAR OLDS

1-5-3

Vanzzy (1) has the best running lines in this group and has enough speed to be at the prowl from the very beginning. Joel Rosario rides for the first time and the rail draw should only help. Don Juan Kitten (5) won impressively last time out. This race is much tougher, but still can improve with only five races lifetime. The longshot here is Three Technique (3), trying the grass for the first time, but working well in it. He is dropping from running versus Grade I company.

4th race: 6½ Furlongs. ™Clm 20000 Purse $43,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREEYEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

2-1-4

Bustin To Please (2) drops to where she is most competitive and Franco knows her well. Draw is somewhat tight for her, lets see how she fares with an inside trip. The Englehart entry (1/1A) seems to be a formidable one-two punch, with Tied Up, who loves to win races, dictating terms up front and Radiantrhythm coming from just off the pace. Stay Fond (4) looks for her third win in a row and her fourth in her last five starts. When you are doing good, you need to be taken into consideration. 

5th race: 7 Furlongs. ™‘OC 40000n2x Purse $67,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREEYEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

1-4-2

Letmetakethiscall (1)  is by far the fastest in here, and with Jose Ortiz on board, you know she will be at or very close to the lead. The big question mark are the seven panels, so we will play Archyoumybaby (4), a distance and track specialist, and now returning under the care of Rudy Rodriguez. She is the main threat in here. The consistent My Roxy Girl (2) completes the selection. In these groups, she always gives a good account of herself and Irad rides (hopefully).

6th race: 6 Furlongs. Mdn 72k Purse $72,000 (UP TO $12,528 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS,TWO YEARS OLD.

5-10-9

Good two year old race, in which we will go with Founder (5), a debuting colt by Upstart, who apparently will be a very nice sire, judging for what we have seen so far. This colt was hammered at 60X his stud’s fee and it’s the “other” Chad Brown. Happymac (10) debuts for Steve Asmussen, and when this happens in the main track, you need to pay attention. This is a Runhappy colt, so he will be looking to win the $100K bonus if he wins, and his works are good enough to start in the right track. Charleston Strong (9) is another one that makes his first start working lights out, and Englehart can win with two year olds. Saez is been red hot. 

7th race: 6 Furlongs. Amstrdam-G2 Amsterdam S. Grade II. Purse $150,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS.

1-3-2

It will be interesting to see the strategy that these jockeys put in place, having Yaupon (2) and Long Weekend (3) as two bonified front runners. Thinking there can be a spped duel developing here, I will take a chance with Basin (1) who returns to a sprint after a series of tries routing. His two wins have come sprinting and Jose Ortiz will keep an eye on the leaders, and has a gopod chance of catchijng them right before the wire. But don’t be surprised at anything, as the other competitors have shown they also can pull it off late.

8th race: 7 Furlongs. Forego-G1 Forego S. Presented by America’s Best RacingPRESENTED BY AMERICA’S BEST RACING. Grade I. Purse $300,000 FOR FOURYEAR OLDS AND UPWARD.

6-4-11

Complexity (6) is the one horse that can disctate how this race is run, and I expect Jose Ortiz to go to the l;ead and let the other try to catch him. At one turn, he is a monster,a nd don’t see ayone that can keep up with him early. The very consistent NY Bred Funny Guy (4) feels very comfortable at seven furlongs, and although stakes are higher now, he won easily last time out, with plenty on the tank. Can be coming into his own at four. Fortin Hill (11) is the up and comer of this group, great performace last time out, but stepping up sharply in class. He is the “other’ Chad. 

9th race: 1½ Mile. (Inner Turf) SwrdDncr-G1 Sword Dancer S. Grade I. Purse $500,000INNER TURF FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

2-6-8

Aquaphobia (2) won the United Nations at Monmouth very convincingly, and now arrives up north to take on a tougher group. I think his style is perfect for this marathon trip and should come looking to repeat his last win from the top of the stretch on. Cross Border (6) is 5 for 5 here at the Spa, after being put up in the Bowling Green. He will be part of that first flight and his chances are very good. The verteran Sadler’s Joy (8) completes the selection, improved effort in his most recent, let’s see if he can replicate that one, now with seven years old.

10th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Mdn 72k Purse $72,000 (UP TO $12,528 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS,FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

3-5-9

Another very good babies race, now for the fillies. Jouster (3) has a pedigree that screams turf, but Pletcher debuts her in the main track, so he apparently liked how she moved in the dirt. They paid 18X her stud’s fee, so they are seeing some talent in here. Zainalarab (5) is the Chad Brown charge in here. A one million dollar baby out of War Front, she is ready to fire first time out. The one that can light up the toteboard is Rookery(9), who just missed in her debut and should be much fitter for this, her second race. 

11th race: 6½ Furlongs. ™‘Alw 64000n1x Purse $64,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREEYEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK

7-3-6

Midnight Surprise (7) won her debut geared down, and today, in her second race, we can expect improvement, with that race under her belt. Irad repeats on her. Eloquent Speaker (3) cuts back in distance after tiring in the stretch at nine furlongs. The six and a half should be much more suitable for her and Saez is winning everything lately. Flashpackinbarbie (6) will be part of the early pace and if she decides, can be a thorn in the foot for my top choice. 

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