Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Needless to say I have been doubting myself a tad here everyone. It has been a few weeks of being ice cold, but we are not down and out yet. Given the COVID-19 situation, it could be a week, it could be a month left to get profitable. Good luck everyone. Hope everyone is safe and enjoying family time during this quarantine. We have been deemed essential personnel, so I am still working with skeleton crews best we can so if the writeup is shorter than you are used to, apologies now!!!
Least we have some racing left for us!!!
Last Week ago: 9-1-2-1 11% (6/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $4.8 returned net -13.20) $0.53 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 81-15-14-8 18.5% (39/81 ITM) ($162 wagered, $99.00 returned) net -$63.00) $1.22 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
6 POST CLOSE- So looking at what this gelding did at Delta and Louisiana over 2019, I could make an argument for fitting here today, consistent workouts in 2020 with the 1 race effort and could be a good spot for a double digit winner. With similar running style and history as the ML Favorite, probably a much better opportunity for wagering, unless you want the chalk and settle for $4.00.
7 PRAETORIAN- Elliot has not been good this meet, which is either a sign of the jockey colony improving or he is in a slump, either way this is a good spot for this gelding on what should be a good pace set up. Comes back to turf after that attempt at Houston, and Asmussen will have this guy ready today. In 2 attempts at Oaklawn, with 2 places, worth a shot against the very short DEFENDER.
2 DEFENDER- If Ingrid had someone else on the mount, I think this horse is an easy single, and very well could be right now, but at a 9-5 ML, tough to bite. Even a repeat of last out effort probably wins against this field with the class drop. Probably gives the lead early and comes with a mid race type effort to win.
.
Race 2
6 MARK OF THE Z- Who am I to fade a trainer winning 26% like Joe Sharp. Add Garcia to the mount and this could very well be a great combination for a win today. Adds blinkers today, and with the solid workouts over the last month, should be in good form today at a short price.
4 RAVENS REFLECTION- If the 13 SHANGAI POINT does not draw in and MARK OF THE Z is not ready, then this horse could be the lone speed. Diodoro horse with Mojica aboard, at a 8-1 ML with speed, sure I will bite! Has not been able to finish yet, so expect a price, but needs some help to win.
5 JUNIOR GILLIAM- The ML here feels way wrong considering the back-class efforts this gelding has for Hollendorfer in California. Granted was off for 1 year before returning, but decent workouts, then a nice effort in debut for Villafranco, which was subsequently claimed by Hartman. Horse is liked all over and faced a pretty fast pace last out and faded throughout. A better setup from De La Cruz today could help.
Race 3
3 RONAMO- Huge effort last out from the layoff for Catalano, nice workouts lately, so this gelding will be ready today. 5 starts at Oaklawn and 4 in the money finishes, but still looking to break that maiden. I like the chance today despite being a career Place/Show type horse.
2 SECULAR STAGNATION- I used this horse last out and was disappointed. Comes today looking to break maiden in much easier company. I don’t think I want to use and with Mojica jumping off the Diodoro horse for a 4% Nicholas Zito tells me a tiny story.
5 RUNNIN’ RAY- 3rd off the layoff today with disappointing efforts thus far in 2020. This one has obviously been against how Joe Sharp has been this meet, but probably fits if can run back to the February 7th type effort.
Race 4
2 KENZOU’S RHYTHM- This gelding has looked pretty good lately, with a good workout pattern. Should be able to sit behind the pace setters and get a good run late in the race. Should not get stuck wide like last time, save some energy and finish strong perhaps.
1 DUKES UP- Interesting angle here with the horse coming on the 3rd start from the layoff. Last out was a pretty slow pace that I think he was up against which might have hampered the efforts as the 2020 debut the horse had a good pace to run at and was a winner. In the money in 2 Oaklawn starts so if you play verticals, need to include here.
8 GIGGING- If this gelding can repeat some 2019 efforts or step forward, could be a very bit horse today. Good morning workouts despite running poorly so far. If they put it together, could win at a very nice price.
.
Race 5
4 CHICKEN HAWK- 2nd start for this Richard Jackson colt, and I liked the effort in debut. A logical progression with experience this horse could take a lot of money and win at a short price. I would look to use this horse in doubles if the probables are well worth it.
1 THORNISH- 3rd start with 2 in the moneys so far this year. I would say watch this card and see how the rail plays but would not surprise me if Santana Jr send this gelding out fast and early, and if past performances tell us anything horse could be in the money, if not in the winner’s circle with improvement.
2 TEMPT FATE- Nice little jockey improvement from last out could get this colt in the winner’s circle. Talamo has had a nice meet, and now adds blinkers.
Race 6
9 MOMENT- In January this horse was amped up and ran himself out of the race. The hot pace that race, it would have been impossible to win. I think the pace today is more controlled and Cohen finishes this race in the winner’s circle.
11 ALTITO- Much like MOMENT had problems with a hot pace, this gelding has had trouble with facing slow paces with hampers a closer no doubt. If Timeform Pace numbers are right here, it is possible that there is enough speed here to keep the race honest and give Talamo something to run into.
12 THEORYINTOPRACTICE- In 5 dirt efforts has been in the money twice. Pedigree fits well for the dirt and I like the move here. Good chance will be forwardly placed and could get an early jump on the tiring leaders late in the race. I would have liked to have seen a workout in the month off to really move my opinion up.
Race 7
3 JEWEL THIEF- Lightly raced Brad Cox filly could win today with improvement. Very nice workouts in March perhaps building up to today. While this filly hasn’t won at Oaklawn, Talamo and Cox do- a lot. Add in the weight allowance and I will let this race go!!!
4 SUMMER STORM- Short price here but that race on February 29th is a key race with 3 out of 6 next out winners. Think I would have liked to see 1 more workout since that race, but can over look that for 3 races in February total.
Race 8
5 PIRATE’S PUNCH- How do you feel about back class? I like it myself- as this gelding travel to Oaklawn the first time. Nice workout pattern here impressive type efforts. If can run somewhere in between the two 2020 efforts, could be a good winner today.
8 KURILOV- Not a huge fan but this horse is 2-2 at Oaklawn so let us consider horse for course for this horse. Nice workout pattern coming out of the February 21st effort, and I think must use on any type of horizontal ticket.
4 GATO GUAPO- Turf or dirt, turf or dirt, where are they going with this gelding…….Ok great dirt today, which saw a great effort 2 weeks ago at Sunland. Heavily raced horse and probably a considerable move up in class from Sunland to Oaklawn. 9-2 ML could be worth a shot for me.
Race 9
6 CRYSTAL LAKE- D Wayne Lukas on a Friday in Arkansas, what’s that say about some horse racing!!!! I think this horse has the best pedigree in this field and has been in the money in 3 attempts at Oaklawn. Needs to get the last lengths up to win, but should be ready for a good outing.
5 SUBIACO- I had this filly as a B when it broke maiden and now faces winners for the first time. I hate that angle, but this horse fits on some figures and could be a factor at a bit price. Talamo perhaps has figured out this filly likes the pressing trip.