Race 1
1 – Solitary Gem – going against logic here and rolling with the horse jumping up in class instead of the more proven runners (4 & 5) dropping down from the allowance ranks; he draws inside and shows speed in a race that’s lacking exactly that, and I think he can lull them to sleep wire to wire at a nice price. 1-5-4.
Race 2
6 – Slamin Sami Brown – the debut wasn’t what they hoped for, but Rudy is bringing her back eight days later for start number two and she gets the services of Manny Franco to help guide the journey. This looks like another race that’s lacking early speed, so maybe she breaks clean and sets up shot on the class drop today… 6-2-7
Race 3
5 – Britta’s Bay – exits very tough maiden company in Kentucky and has been knocking on the door in the last two tries for a Ward barn that excels with runners 2nd-off 180 days (26%) and dirt-to-turf (28%). Franco on the #4 will be out there firing as well, so I’ll hammer this exacta COLD and get the better price on top with Bravo in the irons. 5-4-3
Race 4
4 – Dundalk – horse has been ultra sharp in the three starts since the O’Connell barn made the claim, and the career record at the distance is 3: 2-0-1. Has enough early zip to wire them, but I like the stalk-job two back when he just missed on a rough trip. 10-1 ML is juicy here. 4-5-7
Race 5
7 – Bourbon Did It – was claimed off Servis after the 4/27 start by Jeremiah Englehart, who connects on 24% with runners going first-time for his barn. He’s shown enough tactical speed in the past to fit here, and the 5/11 work is promising. 7-6-8
Race 6
4 – Missle Bomb – going chalk here because I just can’t ignore his love for the Belmont surface (6: 5-1-0) and his success at today’s distance as well (9: 2-4-1). There appears to be some speed in here, and I think this one has the ability to stay close and the best chance to pounce when the real running begins. 4-1-2
Race 7
1 – Pound Note – got hung a bit wide going the extra ½ panel at the Big A last time out, but that was from the outside slot in a field of 12 against a tough bunch. She’ll face similar in here, but she gets the inside draw this time and should be able to save ground along the wood and have a chance at the top of the lane. Perhaps most notably, she’s cutting back to her preferred distance today (3: 1-1-1). 1-9-8
Race 8
4 – Blue Belt – Hasn’t won in about 9 months, but has only missed the top three once in his seven starts since that Saratoga triumph. He has the early zip that I like to see from horses trying to break a losing streak, and I think he has a live chance on the front-end here today. 4-2-5.
Race 9
8 – Game Break – taking a shot with the first-time starter in here, as the Gargan barn connects on 21% of their debut turf runners, and the works leading in have been sharp and consistent. I think this is a very beatable field, so let’s go with the unknown at likely a very nice price. 8-10-4
Race 10
5 – Sue’s Fortune – giving her a pass coming out of the very tough Grade 1 Frizette back in the fall, and we haven’t seen her since. She gets a steep class drop today and probably needs it coming off the bench, but the first two career starts were very impressive on the front-end, and she already has a win at today’s distance. 5-8-11
Race 11 – The Soaring Softly, Grade 3 $100k
6 – Eyeinthesky – will show tons of speed from a nice outside draw for Mark Casse, and she appears to be cranked and ready for this. Works are sharp and they do well coming off wins. Watch out. 6-2-1
Race 12 – 3-4-1
2019 Belmont
Week 1 (4/27) – 9: 0-0-3, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 2 (5/4) – 12: 3-2-1, -44.5% ROI ($24 wagered, $13.30 returned)
Total – 21: 3-2-4, -68.3% ROI ($42 wagered, $13.30 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.2% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
GRAND TOTAL: 223: 54-39-28, -20.4% ($442 wagered, $351.50 returned)
Win Rate = 24.2%
ITM Rate = 54.2%