Happy Kentucky Derby Day everyone. Let have some fun playing the sports most celebrated day and race.
Race 1-
6- Mr. Crow has been laid off since the summer of last year. But trainer Ben Colebrook usually has them race ready off the lay-off. Like the graded stakes back class this guy’s form boasts. If he’s ready to run his A quality race, then he’s a winner as he’s got the best form of these.
2- Control Stake is a consistent sort who typically runs a good race every time. Projects to get a ground saving pocketed up stalking trip behind the speeds. His company lines are solid. Those two and three back second place efforts in stakes company both under today’s jockey, Santana, absolutely fit here. This is a drop in class as evidenced by him being in for $80,000 claiming price as he’s already won at this condition.
3- Curate is talented. But he’s had his issues. Didn’t start until summer of his 4 year old career. Ran a clunker here last fall after starting his career with 2 impressive wins. Then came back as a five year old at Oaklawn with a big win speed figure wise in the winter. Didn’t love that race visually as he didn’t switch leads till the 1/8 pole. Then he hangs last out at Keeneland off a perfect trip. He could just as easily win or run last. Don’t trust him.
Race 2–
6- American Anthem might be another Baffert Derby week/undercard short priced ringer. Perfect outside draw to either take the lead or track Conquest Tsunami or War Giant. Baffert normally has his horses he ships in this week race ready if they are off the layoff. Multiple graded stakes winner going one turn and this is a nice starter race for his 2019 campaign.
1a- My Boy Jack is also another layoff type. Has winning graded form last year. Bullet breeze from the gate prior to shipping in. CJL in the saddle is a plus for this closer. Will need to get a fast pace up top to run down the top pick.
4- King Zachary won the grade 3 Matt Winn last year here in the summer. Form tailed off after that win. Now moved to the Graham Motion barn. We think this pricey Curlin is talented and could turn into a good one, but we think he may race into shape for this patient barn.
Race 3 –
7- Zoe’s Delight debuted in a very good maiden special weight at Keeneland. Was in the mix early. Ran like a green horse who needed experience. The winner of that race is a graded quality runner for Chad Brown. Nice breeze pattern coming into this race. Ian Wilkes typically races his horses into shape. Nice 12-1 price on our top pick here.
4- Surooj was slow away and basically under a drive all 6 furlongs in his debut. Stayed on late to be second in a race that came up fast on speed figures. Did catch a 7 pound weight break that day and doesn’t get that today. We’ll see. Maybe thinking we catch this one next out going two turns.
1- He’s Stylish is the one of the Dimato coupling I prefer. Never out of the super in four races lifetime. Solid speed figs. Has tactical speed. Good breeze pattern off the lay-off coming in. One thing that’s a cause for pause. Dimato is 2-38 the last five years in Kentucky. Food for thought before swallowing a sub 2-1 price on this entry.
Race 4 –
4- High Crime ran a big race three back at Gulfstream Park and tried stakes company off that effort and was not disgraced. Ran big last out two turns at Keeneland. Love the cutback. Saez in the saddle.
We’ll pick the upset over the probable favorite 2- Hidden Scroll. ‘Scroll ran huge in the slop on debut and then was thrown to the wolves in stakes company in his next two. Big drop in class today. Projects to be heavily bet, so we’ll side with the longer price we think is ok. But ‘Scroll can easily win.
8- Youvesaiditall won on debut at Oaklawn and was a solid second against allowance company second out. Light in the speed figure column. But this barn brings horses along race by race, so wouldn’t be shocked to see this one have a say. 9- Fortin Hill must be respected off that debut win for trainer Chad Brown.
Race 5 –
12- Gold Standard is cut out to be a good horse. Purchased for $1.2M. Second on debut for Cox at Fair Grounds. Irad sticks on board. Solid speed figure from the debut. This one looks like the goods.
7- She’s Got Moves was a bangup third last time at Keeneland at 62-1. We think she trips out under Graham and is a solid 8-1 by off.
3- Brie’s Lucky Charm will track on the inside and try to run down the speeds late. Any move forward off that figure earned in the 2019 debut puts her close this afternoon.
Race 6 –
5- Amy’s Challenge nearly re-rallied to beat Spiced Perfection in the Madison at Keeneland. Now posted outside, could easily turn the tables. She’s fast and she’s good. Take her to wire the field.
7- Marley’s Freedom is the class of the field for Baffert. The resume speaks for itself. Secret Spice ran good yesterday in the Grade 1 La Trionne and flatters the last race. She’s a one turn filly, so I’m tossing the last out effort. She’s super good. 2- Spiced Perfection narrowly wore down the top pick last time. She can win, but we think she may get hooked.
Race 7 –
8- Got Stormy was 1-1/2 lengths off Rushing Fall and Rymska in the Grade One Jenny Wiley last time at Keeneland. Both of those two would go favored today. So we see this as a slight drop in class. 8-1 ALL DAY!!!
3- Proctor’s Ledge is a consistent filly who is proven over the course. She won this race last year over the good going which could happen again this year. Legit win candidate.
9- Environs is an improving import for Chad Brown. Should move forward second up in North America.
Race 8 –
12- Whitmore is projected to get a nice tracking trip outside the inside speeds. He’s set to run another -2 on the Thorographs which makes him the consistent horse top horse.
8 – Mitole is really fast and really good. Like maybe Breeder’s Cup Spring good. Yes the 7 furlongs is a question mark, but if this guy keeps finds the final 150 yards, then he’s the winner.
7- Warriors Club is a consistent sort who will bring his race. Not sure he’s good enough to win, but he’s going to have a say in the race somewhere down the lane.
Race 9 – 3 – Digital Age made impressive closing runs to win in both his career starts after getting off slow in both. Will need a better start today to put himself in better early position as the class of this field is stronger than his last two. Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz have won this race in the past together with the likes of Camelot Kitten, so we’ll side with the 6-1 he does it today. Irad seems to hop off our second choice to ride this one.
5- Seismic Wave has the look of a typical Mott horse, getting better with each start. Was an impressive closing winner of the Cutler Bay at Gulfstream last time. Rosario gets the call. If he moves forward third off the layoff, he could go close. Will need to work out a closing trip.
8- Avie’s Flatter carries the best recent win into the race in winning the Grade 3 Transylvania at Keeneland last month. Castellano retains the mount and should give him a good trip today. A repeat of the last puts this guy real close….. thinking the winner of this race is going to be who has the best 2 furlong kick down the lane and this race is wide open with numerous other win candidates.
Race 10 –
10 – Instagrand has been cooked up in speed duels in his last two races. The form from the Santa Anita Derby is very solid as the top two out of there are going to go nearly favored in the Kentucky Derby. This guy lays on class and speed figures. The turnback should suit. Castellano should give him a good trip. Lots of handicappers are skeptical, but I just think this guy is the best horse and once you get past him here it’s a very wide open race.
7- Mr. Money is a good horse who likes it at Churchill. Not sure if he’s fast enough to win this race today. But he’s honest and brings his race every time. No shame in those mid pack finishes in the Louisiana triple crown trail races, he tried in those races.
4 – Mr. Money Bags projects to set the pace. Not sure if he’ll get the mile on the class raise. His speed figs on the Beyer and Thorograph scale fit with these. And he’ll be on the lead at 20-1. Don’t see a ton of pure sprinter speed to go with him. So maybe he sneaks away and tries to get brave late.
Race 11
12- Bricks and Mortar is the best horse in the field. His win two back in the Pegasus World Cup Turf over a similar wet turf course to what we expect today’s course to be makes him an ideal fit today.
6- Clyde’s Image was second last time in the Grade One Maker’s Mark Mile at Keeneland last time. If he moves forward off that race at 15-1 he’ll be right in the mix with these. Love the price on this guy who projects to be on or near the lead. 9- Synchrony has three wins at today 9 furlong distance. A willing third last time behind the top pick. Two back a solid winner at Fair Grounds. This guy is a consistent turf stakes performer. Third in this race last year.
Race 12 – THE KENTUCKY DERBY –
5- Improbable was second behind the scratched favorite (Omaha Beach) in the Arkansas Derby which we think is the best and faster prep race. Blinker off, a 40% angle for Baffert. Owns an impressive win over the track on the Breeder’s Cup undercard. The way he was finishing off his race in Arkansas I have no reservations if he’ll get the distance. He’s coming into the race third off the layoff. All systems go today.
16- Game Winner caught the worst of it in the Santa Anita Derby. Wide both turns on the pace and got cut down late by Roadster who sat off that three horse duel. Carries the class of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Championship into the race, which he won under the Twin Spires.
17- Roadster ran down the second pick in the Santa Anita Derby. If Instagrand wins the Pat Day Mile flattering the Santa Anita Derby, then I’m moving these two out of the Santa Anita Derby up. The 10 furlongs wont be an issue with this guy. Has the form and speed figures to also go close.
14- Win Win Win, happy to see Pimentel back on board, a very capable Maryland rider. He’s more than capable. This horse will take back and make one late run. We’re thinking he might get up for the unders in your tris and supers.
Race 13 –
The start of the ‘get out double’. 2- Get the Prize was an impressive debut winner and a respectable fourth in a nice allowance at Keeneland in his second start. We project a nice tracking ground saving trip behind the speeds. Second time routing should have more stamina to kick on late. Third start of the career should move forward and produce a speed figure that will get in the low 90’s on the Beyer scale which we think it will take to win this.
5- Aquadini was thrown to the wolves last time in the Bluegrass of a nice allowance win at the Fair Grounds. Dropping back into allowance company today. Gets Mr. Churchill in Corey Lanerie. Has tactical speed to take the lead or stay close.
1- Limonite has graded form over this track as he was third in the Grade Two Kentucky Jockey Clubs stakes here last fall. Third off the layoff. Respectable 5th of 14 in the Risen Star. We’ll forgive the congested trip in the Louisiana Derby last time. Drops back into allowance company today. Gets pace to run at. Assmussen’s barn has been rounding into form since the start of the meet a week ago. We’re going to spread in this leg of the late late get out double.
Race 14-
2- Ranger Up is the single in our late double. In the exacta or tri in all four starts against similar special weight company. Should move forward for Pletcher. Projects to get a nice trip from the 2 hole under Saez. Like the stretch out to 9 furlongs for this one.
5- Tony Small was a solid second on debut going 8.5 furlongs at the Fair Grounds. Overcame a hard to win from 12 post to run that big race. Earned a respectable speed figure that improvement off of today puts him right there with the choices at a juicy 12-1. Jose Ortiz in the saddle.
7- Felix the Fox hung off the nice maiden winner Royal Mesa (trained by Phil Sims) going 9.5 furlongs last time. Slight cut back to the 9 today. Castellano sticks aboard. Should be forwardly placed. This race is a little more competitive than the Keeneland race last time. But he’s a consistent sort that should be a reliable on the board unders kind of horse.