Welcome to opening weekend at the Spaaa!! It’s good to be racing here even without spectators, having worked at Saratoga for the past three years it is weird not being there but there is still good racing and a challenging card with two stakes races on tap. There’s some rain throughout Thursday night that may linger into Friday and impact the turf races so I’ll include some off track picks in case but I would expect most of the races to stay on. Good luck if you’re playing along and follow me on twitter @cjfelts87.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 306-81-57-66 (26% win, 66% ITM)
Last year’s Saratoga ROI- $1.95 ($124 wagered, $120.90 won)
Race 1 Allowance Optional Claiming 62k n2x 3up, 1 ⅜ miles turf
Selections: 5-6-2-7 OFF TRACK 1-4
Top Pick: #5 Bundibunan ships from Churchill after closing to be third against similar and now will take to the Saratoga turf for the first time, distance should not be an issue as he was close in a stakes race at Kentucky Downs last year going 1 5/16 miles and also won an allowance race at Keeneland at 1 3/16 miles. Good bullet at Keeneland last week before shipping here and 7-2 is a nice price as Jose Ortiz gets the mount.
Next up: #6 Value Engineering is the horse to beat although even money is a bit too short here. He’s an obvious threat if he can keep improving as Castellano keeps the mount for Chad Brown.
Race 2 Maiden Claiming 25k state bred 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 6-7-1
Top Pick: #6 Lorenzen looks like he is improving as a 3 year old and could be a nice price as Eric Cancel keeps the mount. Should have some tactical speed and I think he will benefit from the added distance.
Next up: #7 Fridaybeers gets back to dirt after an okay try on turf and Pletcher’s numbers making the surface aren’t that great but this is not that strong of a field and Irad Ortiz gets the mount for Repole and Rudy Rodriguez. Has the speed to be competitive if he can break well.
Race 3 Starter Allowance 50k 3up, 1 ⅛ miles
Selections: 7-3-5-1
Top Pick: #7 Fried Rice King looks like an overlay at 10-1 ML as he jumps in class after dominating maidens last time out by open lengths. Keeps Velazquez aboard for Todd Pletcher who has this horse well spotted and has tactical speed that he can use to his advantage from an outside post.
Next up: #3 First Rate is an improving gelding for Joseph Saffie as he ships him from Gulfstream to run towards his eligible condition, gets Irad aboard and will be dangerous if he can hold his current form.
Race 4 Claiming 25k Fillies 3yo, 6 furlongs
Selections: 5-3-2-1
Top Pick: #5 Stunning Munnings seems like a nice value play at 6-1 ML, Carmouche stays aboard after a decent race off the layoff and he will be dangerous if he shows improvement off that race. In a short sample size David Duggan is 2 for 10 with runners second off the layoff and a positive ROI so hopefully he can keep that trend going here.
Next up: #3 Persian Queen ships from Churchill and will get some class relief, there was a trend last year where Churchill shippers were dominating in the claiming ranks at Saratoga and at 10-1 ML I’m willing to bet that trend will continue.
Race 5 Maiden Special Weight 62k state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 10-6-8-4 OFF TRACK: 5-7-4-3
Top Pick: #10 Sandro the Great cuts back in distance after going long on turf last time which is tough asking for a horse making his second start and first on the lawn. Can improve off that effort and draws the outside which will help his cause. Joel Rosario gets the mount at a nice 3-1 ML.
Next up: #6 Noble Mischief can be dangerous if he shows improvement after his debut going this long. Cardenas keeps the mount who is an underrated rider on the NYRA circuit and he could be there at a price with the right trip.
Race 6 Allowance 64k n1x state bred 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 3-4-8-6
Top Pick: #3 Mission Wrapitup drops into a nice spot from stakes company after running a pretty solid race, can improve second off the layoff for Chad Brown and Javier Castellano. Solid works coming into today and Chad Brown has this horse pointed well towards this spot.
Next up: #4 Giant Shoes another horse that can improve second off the layoff, last race was over turf which was maybe more of a prep for him for a trainer in Brad Cox who has been on fire this year and his numbers are good in all the applicable areas: second off the layoff he is 32%, turf to dirt 24%, and cutting back from route to sprint at 29%.
Race 7 De La Rose Stakes 85k F&M 4up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 9-4-1-6 OFF TRACK: 5-ALL
Top Pick: #9 Blowout is the horse to beat here as she makes her 2020 debut after competing well against graded stakes company last year. Can fire off the layoff and will be a threat if she can work out a good trip from the far post with her tactical speed.
Next up: #4 Clara Peeters is interesting to me mainly because she gets Javier Castellano who is not riding any of the three Chad Brown horses. Usually he is one of Brown’s top choices and may be nothing more than a contractual agreement but he will stay aboard this improving 4 year old who might be there at a price.
Race 8 Allowance Optional Claiming 62k n2x F&M 3up, 5.5 furlongs turf
Selections: 3-4-6-5 OFF TRACK: 1-ALL
Top Pick: #3 Lady Lawyer finished second last out to Clara Peeters who we just talked about so that race looked pretty strong and she could be a nice fit here in a short field with few true turf sprinters. Cutting back to 5 and a half shouldn’t be a big issue with her speed.
Next up: #4 Lost Ticket goes out for Bill Mott and Johnny V keeps the mount, won her last race against n1x company as a 20-1 longshot and now steps up here to face tougher and now she’s 6-1 ML, might be able to get up late.
Race 9 Shine Again Stakes 85k state bred F&M 4up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 6-2-5-7
Top Pick: #6 Joy Epifora is a South American import who only recently made her debut in the states at Churchill. She appears to be a closer type in a race that has a lot of speed so I think the instructions to Jose Ortiz will be to sit off the pace and save ground then make a move down the stretch. Hard to get behind any of the speedsters without demanding value so landing on this stalker type at a nice 12-1 ML.
Next up: #2 Risky Mandate is a very quick filly for Tom Amoss who invades from Churchill, can show improvement after a good start to her 4 year old campaign and has good tactical speed.
Race 10 Maiden Claiming 40k state bred 3up, 1 mile turf
Selections: 1-12-7-6 OFF 15-14-11
Top pick: #1 K.K. Ichikawa will be dangerous if he can improve off his debut, didn’t get the best of trips in his first start and now keeps Junior Alvarado aboard at the same level. Gets first time lasix which should also help.
Next up: #12 The Postmaster gets a nice draw to the outside as he makes his 2020 debut dropping down to maiden claiming company, it is an extended layoff but he has shown he can fire and run well off the bench plus he will benefit from the class drop as Manny Franco hops aboard.