Aqueduct Racing Analysis- Sunday, Feb 16, 2020- By Ivan Lopez

Hoping for a return to winning ways, as last week was another very tough one for my selections. Let’s go for the rebound, with nine races on tap, headlined by the Gander, for New York Breds three year olds going a flat mile. 

1st race: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT Four Years Old And Upward.  One Mile.

2-5-3

Ownitifyouwantit (2) is the fastest of this bunch, and has a definite pace advantage in this group of closers. Julio Correa has been very good with horses that want the lead, and I suspect he will try to go wire to wire here. Mutakaamil (5) and Perceived (3) form a potent combo for Eclipse winning trainer Chad Brown. Both of them’s most recent race was on December 5th., and they were separated by a nose. Coming back from a two month layoff, both need to be considered top contenders for the win. 

2nd race: 1 Mile. ™Alw 50000s  FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

6-3-4

Love and Love (6) just missed last time out at this same level and that outside post will allow Dylan Davis to dictate how the race is to be run. She is definitely the one to beat and will take a lot of beating if anyone wants to defeat her. Miss Mi Mi (3) has been a popular commodity in the claim box (six times since August), a testament of how good a condition she has maintained. Another good sign is that Greg Sacco reclaims her. She fired a bullet in her most recent breeze, so she is no question the fiercest enemy of my favorite. Bossy Bride (4) completes the selection, returning to the dirt after experimenting on the all weather of Turfway Park, and in a group much more manageable for her. Junior Alvarado takes the call for trainer Rob Atras. 

3rd race: 1 Mile. MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT, FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

4-5-1

Heavenly Curlin (4) returns from a three month stay on the shelf switching surfaces. Mark Casse doesn’t bring these much horses in to the Big A, so he must really think this filly will relish the Aqueduct main strip. The fillies that ran against her have gone on to run in stakes races, so it was a quality group.  Sengekontacket (5) failed as the odds on favorite last time out, without a plausible excuse. She is a definite player again, but we need to be cautious. Inveterate (1) is fast out of the gate and returns to the dirt, where she debuted at the Spa against the likes of Finite, a very nice filly. If she is let alone in the lead, she can be dangerous. 

4th race: 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n3L Purse $31,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

1-4-5

Big Benny’s Tribute (1) was claimed by Rudy Rodriguez at Saratoga for twice the tag she will be running today. With the purse money, he will more or less break even, but the filly comes with a series of breezes that let us know she is good enough to win in this group. Countable (4) drops sharply from $35,000, after not doing much in that occasion. Linda Rice scores at 33% when dropping two classes, she has a very easy breeze in preparation. Take her with caution. Risaalat (5) returns to the level in which she won two races ago at Parx. She is the main initial foot of this race and can be dangerous if let loose alone. 

5th race: 6 Furlongs. ‘MC 25000 Purse $33,000 FOR MAIDENS, FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

4-1-6

First time starter Union Banks (4) is a bit of a wild card in here, but if Manny Franco rides him in such a bad group, it’s because he thinks he is live in here. Has a 36.1 breeze from the gate that tells me he is at least fast out of the gate. Implied Volatility (1) should be one of the top contenders if he repeats his most recent. That is a big if, as these low quality horses are not known for their consistency. Vargas retains the mount. Determined One (6) drops from Maiden Special Weight to maiden claimers, that alone will make you consider him in your plays. He is debuting on the dirt also, another factor to take into consideration. 

6th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

4-7-9

Science Fiction (4) goes second time out for Linda Rice, and she should be much fitter for this commitment. Alvarado retains the assignment and she is an Aqueduct specialist, with all her four wins coming at this oval. The always consistent My Roxy Girl (7) always gives a good account of herself, and the number seven post gives her plenty of options. There is plenty amount of speed in the race, so she will be stalking the leaders from mid pace on. Aunt Babe (9) looks to be on the upswing, just missing on her most recent. Lezcano takes over for Correa, her main point of concern is that she is 3 for 30, and no wins in a long time. 

7th race: 1 Mile. Alw 70000n1x Purse $70,000 (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

5-9-3

High Limit (5) takes a cutback in distance after easily drawing off in his most recent. Bill Mott gave him three works, a bullet included, and those indicate that he is maintained his tip top form. High Amplitude (9) just toyed with an overmatched field in his last race. Now returns after a month and a half hiatus against a tougher group, but if he keeps on the improving side of things, no question that he can repeat a win. I Love Jaxson (3) returns from a bit of a break and this mile trip is just perfect for him. Lezcano rides him, and he had options. Watch out, he is extremely consistent. 

8th race: 1 Mile. ‘GanderB100K Gander S. Purse $100,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

6-7-4

Very interesting rendition of the Gander. Bourbon Bay (6) lost to Independence Hall in his most recent, and he returned to run well enough in the Sam Davis. Has two solid breezes in preparation and Manny Franco jumps on his saddle, and will be making his presence felt late in the stretch. Scilly Cay (7) seems to be in the best form of his short career, and steps up in distance, which is always a concern, but that last win was very impressive, and will not be a bit surprised to see him repeat for a second stakes win. Bank on Shea (4) won a NY Stallion Series race in the last jump back in November, and Jason Servis gives him a good three month rest. He is maybe somewhat short and will need this one, but the talent is there and Lezcano preferred him over other choices.   

9th race: 1 Mile. Clm 16000n3L Purse $31,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES.

10-5-4

Zonic (10) gets a good jockey upgrade, from Carroll to Gutierrez, and the drop in class will serve him well in here. The mile trip is also favorable for his style. Hizaam (5) has the connections in his favor, but last time out he was very lethargic as the odds on favorite. Lezcano keeps going to the pond with him. Jack Bo (4) is the wild card in here, if he can establish an easy enough pace up front, in a race that doesn’t have much speed, he can be long gone.  

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