Saratoga Racing Analysis — Sunday, August 11, 2019, by Ivan Lopez

Once again welcome to another Sunday of racing at beautiful Saratoga Race Course. We had a great day yesterday with five top pick winners, and each and every winner was indicated in our top three selections. Lets keep it rolling, in a day in which the feature is the Galway Stakes, for three year old fillies going five and a half panels on the turf.

1st race: 1 1/8 Mile. Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD  

Majority Rules (4), One Eyed Jack (2), Liberty’s Pursuit (5)

Majority Rules definitely have shown in both of his races that he should be a clear favorite in the opener. He should sit a comfortable stalking trip behind the number 3 horse, who should dictate the pace. He has experience at the nine panel distance, so he should be much fitter to withstand it now. One Eyed Jack debuted at Belmont and showed he should have no problem going two turns. Jose Ortiz keeps the mount for Chad Brown, who hits at 32% first time routing. Liberty’s Pursuit is coming back from an eight month plus stay in the shelf with six breezes. It’s obvious that he will probably need this one, but showed talent good enough to be a contender here. 

2nd race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) Alw 40000s Purse $75,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $13,050 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD

Sentry (9), Krewe Chief/Noble Thought (1/1A), Mo Maverick (8)

This is the third race off the layoff for Sentry, and now, with a cutback to a distance much more suited for him, he can make his presence felt late in the stretch. It has not been a good meet for Manny Franco, so Joel Rosario takes over the assignment in this horse, and that can be the big difference. The entry is a good two for one punch specially for Noble Thought, who is dropping again to a much more realistic spot for him, after not doing much in a Garde II last time out. He should sit right off Mo Maverick, who will try to take this field wire to wire, and he should have a very easy lead. The question for him is the nine furlongs, at eight he has gotten tired. But the track has been good for speedsters lately, so he has a good chance. 

Off Turf: 1-4-2

3rd race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Turf) ™Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

Apurate (8), Morning Gold (7), Sharing (11)

I expect an improved effort from Apurate, whose pedigree screams turf from top to bottom. Had some problems at the start of the race coming from the dreaded one hole at five and a half furlongs. Pletcher hits at 30% second time out and at 27% first time routing. Solid debut run for Morning Gold, and Mc Peek is much better second time out, with a 24% hitting clip when sending a horse in his second grass race. Jose Ortiz takes over for Dylan Davis, and we should expect him to be part of he early flight if no one takes the initiative. Sharing should be the pace setter if she gets in, but the outside post is no easy task to overcome. Anyway she showed nice talent in that first race and stretching to the eight and a half should be no problem. 

Off the Turf: 8-13-1

4th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Clm 32000 Purse $60,000 (UP TO $10,440 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. 

Malibu Mischief (7), Dovey Lovey (8), Big Benny’s Tribute (9)

Claimed by Steve Asmussen about a month ago, he brings Ricardo Santana Jr. to ride her and try to get the lead at all costs. Both Santana and Asmussen are riding high after both of their two year olds won yesterday, and the streak can be kept alive here with this filly, who was highly regarded as a two year old. Dovey Lovey drops dramatically from a $100,000 claimer to a $32,000 claimer. In any other meeting this will be a red light indicator, but not here at the Spa, with the purses being paid to the owners. Rosario rides her back and this gal can pull a nice upset at 10-1 odds. Big Benny’s Tribute has the least experience in this field, and that means she can have the most upside of this bunch. Another interesting fact is that Rudy Rodriguez claimed her back after losing her a race ago. Irad rides an should be making her late run in the stretch. 

5th race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) ™‘OC 40000n2x Purse $83,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE

Sadie Lady (6), High Jingo (1), First Appeal (3)

Generally I don’t like to go with three year olds against elders, but this filly should have first run at High Jingo and Joel Rosario rides her back after a win in a first level allowance. Her works leading up to this race have been fantastic. High Jingo is the fastest in this group and Irad should be looking to take the early lead at all costs and see how far she takes him. She is taking a cutback in distance who should fit her to a tee. First Appeal needs some hot pace to run into, and I am not totally sure she will get that. But this is her second start under the car of Brad Cox, and he excels in that stat, with a 31% hit rate. 

Off Turf: Same

6th race: 6 Furlongs. ™Mdn 90k Purse $90,000 (UP TO $15,660 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD.

Mundaye Call (10), Secondary Market (5), Plea (6)

There is good quality in these fillies, but was Mundaye Call has shown in her works so far is extraordinaire, and will get my top pick. Trainer of record is Don Chatlos, but everyone knows this is Jerry Hollendorfer’s filly, and when he brings a filly to New York, that means business. Jose Ortiz is penciled in to ride from the outside post. Secondary Market goes first time out in the dirt for Klaravich and Chad Brown, and that, my friends, is a potent combo. Always watch out when Chad brings a debut runner on the dirt, that means he or she is very live. Plea is a first time starter for Bill Mott, who, in general, doesn’t crank them up completely for that first run. But this filly seems to be in tip top shape for this race and I will not be surprised t all by a good performance from her.

7th race: 1 1/8 Mile. (Inner Turf) ‘Alw 80000n1x Purse $80,000 INNER TURF FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE   

Cross Border (3), Graded On a Curve (1), Conforto (7)

Don’t see that much initial zip in this race, so that favors my top pick Cross Border. Luis Saez, a specialist with speed type horses, will put her at or near the lead and she has proven she can stretch her speed to two turns. Graded On a Curve has only three races, but with each new race, he improves as the distances increase, and definitely you know his ceiling hasn’t been reached yet. Irad has been his only jockey so far, and repeats for Chad Brown, and should receive a nice stalking, rail skimming trip, and will be dangerous late in the race. Conforto can be the big upset here at 15-1 morning line odds. This is a Monmouth shipper that easily won a much softer race that this one. Interestingly, trainer Hills brings him here instead of leaving him at Monmouth, and his figures have been on an upswing. Further improvement definitely not out of the question. 

Off Turf: 3-6-16

8th race: 7 Furlongs. ™OC 62500n2x Purse $95,000 (UP TO $16,530 NYSBFOA) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD

Talk Veuve To Me (3), Free Kitty (1), Cookie Dough (2)

We are going to give Talk Veuve To Me one last chance. She has been a disappointment lately, but now her trainer Rodolphe Brisset tries putting blinkers on her, looking for more focus at the early part of the race. She worked a bullet last week, and I have to think she was sporting these blinkers she will ear today. Jose Ortiz replaces Julien Leparoux in her. Free Kitty has been running mile races and now takes a bit of a cutback, and angle I love, specially when cutting to seven panels. Irad Ortiz climbs aboard for Rudy Rodriguez, who hits at 26% with a beaten fave. Cookie Dough gets a class relief after running in five consecutive graded stakes. We can expect her to be the early leader, and Rajiv and Kiaran have been an extremely effective combination over the years. Not without a chance. 

9th race: 5½ Furlongs. (Turf) ™GalwayB100K Galway S. Purse $100,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD.

Sister Peacock (3), Abyssinian (1), Eyeinthesky (10)

Woodbine shipper Sister Peacock gets the nod here. She ran a creditable third in a Grade III last time out at Canada, and she possesses enough early foot to be in contention right from the start. Chris Landeros is a very underrated jockey, specially riding sprinters on the grass, and she should get first run at the leaders. Abyssinian is the fastest in this group and look for Johnny V to put her at the lead from the gitgo. This filly ran third to Bulletin, so you can imagine how quick footed she is, and will be hard to go by. Eyeinthesky just missed last time out here at the Spa, but Joel Rosario keeps going to the pond and the improvement she showed on that most recent bring hope of more today. 

Off Turf: 1-5-10

10th race: 1 1/16 Mile. (Inner Turf) MC 40000 Purse $48,000 INNER TURF (UP TO $8,352 NYSBFOA) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD.

Sandy Lane Kitten (4), Lisbon (10), Duress (7)

My three top picks share one thing in common; all of them are dropping from maidens special weight to claimers. They say that is the most significant drop in horses racing, and that is definitely true. I prefer the Danny Gargan trainee because Carmouche is taking the call for Gargan, from a good post on the starting gate and has four works in preparation. We have not seen Mr. Ramsey in the winners circle, and that can change quickly. Lisbon has a bad post for a horse that is quick out of the blocks, Santana will have to use him to get a decent position, but if he can rate from just off the pace, he will be right there at the end. Duress has only one race lifetime and had his share of trouble. Now gets to two turns for trainer Ribaudo, who hits at 23% dropping from MSW to MCl. Lots of possibilities in this finale. 

Off Turf: 13-2-8

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