What a way to finish up an outstanding winter meet at Gulfstream Park. We are treated with a fourteen race card, with seven stakes scheduled, four of them Graded and the feature is the Grade I Florida Derby, the last prep for three year olds at Florida. Let’s quickly go to the selections:
1st race: Son of Oahu (6), Dexter Road (2), Billy Big (5)
My pick gets a big boost in jockey, from Batista to Irad Ortiz and also gets a drop in class from his last race, who was just two weeks ago. Dexter Road should be forwardly placed since early and gets Saez replacing Landeros. Also comes from a very useful number two post. Billy Big also ran good in that same race, and these three look solid as the top choices.
2nd race: Jalen Journey (2) PRICE PLAY, Transistor (5), Tell Me a Story (6)
Confident step up in class after breaking his maiden for Jalen Journey, who with two races lifetime, still should have some upside potential. Transistor takes a cut back in distance and won in very nice form less than two weeks ago. Tell me a Story just missed at this same level, and should be prominent from the start.
3rd race: Haunt (3), Jamaican (8), Quick Step Ed (4)
I’m gonna give one last chance to Haunt, who disappointed me last time out. Now gets blinkers and returns to a one turn configuration. Saez takes the call. Jamaican is maybe the fastest of this group, Biancone takes the shades off looking for a little less speed and more stamina. Quick Step Ed was gelded after his debut and now his trainer takes off the shades. He ran much better than expected in his debut.
4th race: Prince Lucky (4) BEST BET, Guy Caballero (6), Tale of Silence (1)
If he repeats his race in the Hal’s Hope, Prince Lucky should win pretty easily. Has the speed and class advantage over this field. Guy Caballero is the horse than can follow him from the start and with not much more early zip signed in, could last up to the wire. Tale of Silence is the best of the rest.
5th race: Art G is Back (4), Marquee Prince (3), Seismic Wave (1)
Very good showing from Art G is Back in the Grade III Palm Beach, Gaffalione stays up and with two breezes leading up, he should be ready to fire. Marquee Prince should be forwadly placed from that three slot and Castellano replaces Geroux on this horse, already a stakes winner. Seismic Wave broke his maiden in a longer distance, gets a cutback and Irad rides for Bill Mott.
6th race: A Bit Special (3), Positive Skew (6), Belle Laura (4)
With three stakes wins in a row, A Bit Special looks to be a leader in the turf filly division, and she is already a Graded winner, a race much stronger than this one. Positive Skew has only two races, but seems like a talented filly and gets a confident step up in class from his trainer Chad Brown. Belle Laura has some very interesting names in her past performances and gets Johnny V on her saddle for today. Watch out!
7th race: Niko’s Dream (2), Ygritte (13), Alasaayil (3)
Niko’s Dream was parked outside in her last race, now gets a much better post and Manny Franco is a turf specialist. Ygritte debuts for trainer Christophe Clement, with a pedigree that screams turf. I will have preferred a better post in the gate, but the group has not show anything special. Alasaayil is the fastest of them and is dangerous if no one goes with her early.
8th race: Dunbar Road (6), Point of Honor (3), Cookie Dough (7)
Impressive debut run for my favorite, winning as she pleased. Takes a giant step upward company wise, and if Chad Brown runs her here, is because he has her in high esteem. Irad takes the call in a Grade II. Point of Honor is undefeated in two starts, its true we do not know who she beat but she has looked quite nice in doing so. Cookie Dough has the experience advantage against these, lets see if she can make it count.
9th race: Machine Learning (10), Social Paranoia (8), Machiavelli (3)
The ones that have experience haven’t shown that much, so lets go for the fresh face. And if it is trained by Chad Brown, you know is well meant. Social Paranoia is coming from a six month rest working nicely, but she is 0 for 5 already and Johnny V. preferred the 2. Machiavelli can be the sleeper here, going for more than 6 times his stud’s fee and is the other Casse.
10th race: Valedictorian (5), Proctor’s Ledge (9), Fire Key (2)
Valedictorian improving with each new race and should be part of that first flight in a race in which we don’t see that much speed. Proctor’s Ledge is the class of the field, maybe can be a tad short from the five month rest, but if all fall her way, she is good enough to score. Fire Key attracts Franco back, with a little improvement she can win at a nice price.
11th race: So Long Chuck (10) PRICE PLAY, Rock Doc (4), Gleason (3)
Comes from a disappointing effort as the favorite, but So Long Chuck deserves another chance at redemption. Cutting back in distance, now has Saez on his reins and fired a bullet in preparation. Should be watching the speed duel from mid pack. Rock Doc returns from nine months on the bench working steadily, and attracts Castellano in an optional claimer on Florida Derby Day. Gleason has aonly four races in his resume, with some upside still left and Johnny V. stays up.
12th race: Tombelaine (2), Neepawa (3), Second Mate (11)
Maybe the most difficult race to handicap all afternoon. I landed on Tombelaine, which last start at this trip lost by just six lengths to Bricks and Mortar, and that last race seemed like a prep for this one. Neepawa flunked as the favorite last time out at Laurel and went to the pine. Now returns against a group that seems to be somewhat lighter that the ones he was facing, and Johnny V. already won with him. Second Mate’s post does not do him any favors, but has the numbers on his favor and Castellano rides.
13th race: Bigger Picture (9), Village King (3), Focus Group (1)
The last race for Bigger Picture does not tell all the story. He was very tight at times and Ortiz really didn’t let him run until very late, doing only what he had to do. If he repeats that effort, will be a tough customer. Village King is lone speed in front, and John Velazquez is a master with these type of horses. Focus Group has the numbers, but the pace scenario does not help him at all.
14th race: Bourbon War (4), Code of Honor (9), Hidden Scroll (1)
I think we will see a very similar race as the Fountain of Youth, the difference is that now, Hidden Scroll will be dueling with Maximum Security instead of an impossible longshot. So I see the race shaping up beautifully for Bourbon War, who was flying late and just missed catching Code of Honor.