Bankroll: $50.00
Overall :-$235.50
Top Pick Results: 37-9-10-5
Race 1- 1,6,2
Bon Raison is dropping in class and cutting back in distance today which I think is the perfect move for this one. He has won his last 2 races under 1 mile in non graded stake company and has posted higher speed figures then anyone else in this field in those races. The negative about him is that both jockey Mike Luzzi and trainer Gary Contessa are ICE COLD this meet, but at morning line of 4-1 I think he is worth the risk.
Monteleone’s best 2 career races have been over a wet track which it looks like we are going to get today. He also gets Junior back in the irons who rode him to victory last time out here at Aqueduct, and trainer Linda rice is 26% on the year with horses returning after winning last time out. The reason I am not using Monteleone on top here is that he does not appear to be lone speed on paper and both of his career wins came as the controlling pace, but has finished in the money in his other 5 of 9 career races.
Fox Red already has a win over the track this meet, and is the inside speed, but just like Monteleone, he should have company up front. His last race on December 20th, he was pressed on the early lead and faded to a 5th place finish. Today he has his 3rd new jockey in as many races with Maragh now in the irons, and John Toscano numbers this year in these spots don’t exactly inspire confidence, especially at a morning line of 2-1. Safe play underneath, but in my opinion would be hard to solo on top against this field.
Race 2- 6,7,2
Run for Boston is going to be the favorite in here and rightfully so. He has finished in the money in 10 of 15 career races including 6 of 8 in 2018, but is also 2 for 3 in the money on the dirt. He is a 4 year old sired by Include, so an off track and the distance should be no issue for him, and he gets Manny Franco back in the irons who rode him to a near win back at Saratoga where he finished just a ½ length behind the winner at this distance but on the turf. Would be surprised if we get 9-5 on him, I am thinking he gets bet down to around 4-5 against this field.
Cool Crinoline is shipping in from Finger Lakes and if you are not sold on the favorite here, this one seems to be the next logical choice. He finished 2nd in his debut in a maiden special weight and today is dropping in for a tag. Trainer Charlton Baker does not have many starters this year, but his horses for the most part run well and is currently 50% in the money this meet. Morning line is 4-1 on this one and I think we get around that by post time which is worth the play if you think the favorite is beatable or not worthy of being a single on your multi race tickets.
Shuffling Madness looks like he would need help to win here today, but stretching out with this pedigree on a potentially wet track is not the worst thing, especially with a morning line of 8-1. Bruce Brown is 6 for 13 in the money this meet and with this one more than likely providing solid value on the board, may be one you want to use underneath on your exotics. Also jockey Gutierrez is 40% this meet finishing in the money.
Race 3- 2,3,6
Rucksack has finished in the money in all 5 career starts at this distance, and today looks to be lone speed. He gets Dylan Davis in the irons today who has been riding very well with meet and is coming off a 3rd place finish over the track where he was pressured early. Today with an inside post, saving the bit of ground should make the difference late.
I know Chad Brown has been cold this meet, only being 1 for 11, but Replicator should improve off his debut and is coming out of the same race Rucksack is coming out of. He did finish 4 lengths behind Rucksack which is why I have him 2nd here, but he does get a jockey change to Manny Franco who is having another great Aqueduct meet and it is still hard to rule out Chad Brown, especially when Replicator will be around 5-1.
Zealous could very easily win this one, but with a slight drop in speed figures over his last 2 races, and both being 2nd place finishes, I will try to beat him, especially at morning line odds of 7-5 which I think is crazy for a maiden. Now if the track is sloppy, he is sired by Tiznow so I think in that case he is too dangerous to leave off multi tickets, but for the win I will try and beat him.
Race 5 -8,7,2
Easy Banker goes out for Linda Rice who is 23% this year when debuting a horse in a maiden claimer. Her works aren’t anything special, and I am not a huge fan of better 2 year old’s on the outside in their debut, but with the 2 most likely taking a lot of money because of the connections, the 3-1 morning line on this one with the Junior and Rice combo is too good to pass up.
Call it a Truce is going out for John Kimmel who has only sent out 5 runners this meet so far, but 2 of them have won and 1 other finished 2nd. Again she does not look like anything special, but Kimmel seems to have his horses ready to run recently so including this one on tickets.
Analyze With Honor will most likely be the post time favorite with the connections of Repole Stables, Manny Franco in the irons, and Rudy Rodriguez training, but nothing about this one has me hooked so I am trying to beat her. She was a 90K purchase back at the Saratoga sale in August of 2017, and is debut for a 30K tag which is never a good sign in my opinion. She does get Lasix for the first time which could have a positive impact on her, but for her likely low odds, I will try and beat this one.
Race 7- 5,1,2
Noble Freud is coming off a win here back on December 7th where she took a wide trip around the turn for home and still won by a ½ length. Today she should not have to be as wide as she was that day as she is breaking from post 5 which is a plus. She also gets Manny Franco back in the irons, and trainer Jeremiah Englehart is 25% with horses coming off a win in their last start.
Naples Princess was my top pick earlier this meet and finished 3rd and while she did have some trouble in the stretch, not enough to finish 3 length behind the winner as the favorite. If she returns to her Saratoga form, she could still win here, but her last race will get her beat again. Mott has been solid this meet with 5 of 7 runners finishing in the money. I know she is chalk at a morning line of 7-5, but for multis I would not rule her out.
Harkness always seems to have a valid excuse on why she didn’t place well, but she did show improvement in her 3rd start of the year last time out and I think she could improve today after re-watching that effort on November 30th. She goes get a jockey change again, this time to Dylan Davis, but is the 2nd Bill Mott runner here who I stated before has finished in the money with 5 of 7 runners this meet.
Wagers: $50.00 Total
Race 1: $1 Pick 3 -1,2,6/6/2,3,6, $0.50 Pick 5 -1,2,6/6,2/1,2,4,6,8/2,7,8
Race 2: $5 Win on 6, $3 Double 6/2
Race 3: $5 Win on 2
Race 5: $2 Win on 8
Race 7 :$3 Win on 5, $0.50 Trifecta 5,1,2