Churchill Downs
September 26th, 2019
Race 1
#8 Limage
I think this filly looks pretty tough in here. She’s taking a big drop in class from $30,000 to $10,000; plus she looks to be the main pace in this race. These are top notch connections, and I look for Florent Geroux to put this girl on the lead and potentially take the field wire to wire. Brad Cox trains.
#7 Anywaythewindblows
This girl intrigues me. 10-1 on the morning line seems generous. Her last race was her first try on dirt, and it wasn’t too bad. She is also taking a significant drop in class. This will be her second start with blinkers, so she could improve a little bit again. I am not too familiar with trainer Brian Knippenberg. Angel Serpa will ride.
#2 Daring
Another class dropper here, and she could be a player. I am slightly concerned about her dirt form. Her two tries on fast dirt both resulted in 18 length defeats, albeit against tougher competition. She does seem to be rounding into good form, so if she can now transfer her turf efforts to the dirt she has a chance. Brian Hernandez rides for Tim Glyshaw.
Race 2
#1 Control Stake
I’m going take a little chance with this one. He’s been freshened up since the end of June. He’s run well off some layoffs in the past, so I don’t expect that to be a big issue. He is not exactly a win machine, having not won in a couple years. But he has faced some really good runners lately. I think he actually draws pretty well in here because he looks like he’ll just sit back and make one run in the stretch. Ricardo Santana in the irons.
#6 Cautious Giant
I’ll just draw a line through his last race, it was a tough field and on the turf. I think he’s prefers the dirt at this point. He draws the perfect post position here. He should be able to sit right off the pace setters and get a clean trip. He’s got tactical speed, so he shouldn’t be too far behind. He’s also got some back class, so if he brings his A effort, he could definitely win in this spot. Tyler Gaffalione rides for Mike Maker.
Race 3
#1A Overanalyzer
Not a super strong group here. I think this horse is trending in the right direction. They put blinkers on two starts ago, and he’s run two decent efforts. I don’t love the far outside draw here, but he is versatile, so he might be able to work out a trip. He actually finished third last year in the G3 Bashford Manor here at Churchill, so he has some experience over this surface. Michelle Elliot trains, Andres Ulloa rides.
#2 Sazerac
This one is a class dropper. Raced for $30,000 last time out at Prairie Meadows, and ran okay. He’s hit the board in all three starts this year. He draws the rail which isn’t ideal. He’s not super fast out of the gate, so hopefully he doesn’t get shuffled too far back. If he gets a clean trip, I think he’s a player in here. Miguel Mena rides for Ron Moquett.
#4 Beemie Award
I think this horse might get overbet in here. He’s a class dropper for well known connections, but I’m not overly impressed with his form. He does have speed, so he should get a forward position. Although, he hasn’t shown much finishing punch lately. So overall, this horse is a play against for me.
Race 4
#1 Whispering Speaker
This is a monumental class drop, so much so, that it is a little suspicious. However, they only claimed this horse for $20,000 last year, and they’ve already won that money back. She looks to be training well, and Norm McKnight is 21% off the layoff. If she runs her best effort, she’ll end up in the winners circle. David Cohen in the irons.
#5 Kalispell
This is the only other horse I’d maybe give a slight chance in here, and that’s mostly because of her early speed. She has 8 lifetime wins, so she knows what to do. If Jack Gilligan can get her in front and let her roll, we’ll see how far she can take them.
Race 5
#4 Secretary At War
This is a very competitive race with some evenly matched horses. I’ll put this guy on top. He’s been off since January and he’s making his first start for Brad Cox. Cox is good off the layoff, and this horse has some decent back class. He’s got some tactical speed, so he should get a good trip from this post position. Florent Geroux will be the pilot.
#9 Ezmosh
I’m not giving up on this horse quite yet. I bet him last time out at Ellis Park. He sat close to an honest pace and then faded in the stretch. But he has some really nice races on his PPs. His race three back here at Churchill was a strong effort. He finished second to the very classy New York bred Dot Matrix. They are putting the blinkers back on him and I’d expect him to be close to the pace once again. Joe Sharp trains and his main guy Adam Beschizza rides.
(This horse is also entered in a race Friday at Remington Park, so it’s possible he could scratch from this spot.)
#3 Longden
Here’s another price horse that I’m giving a look to. He’s only run two times on the turf before, but they resulted in a win and a second. He looks to be training well leading up to this. He’ll definitely be one of the horses coming from the back of the pack. He’ll need to find a clean trip and some racing luck. But if he gets those things, I think he can hit the board at a price. Eoin Harty gets Jesus Castanon to ride. They actually hit at close to 20% when they team up. And Jesus has ridden this horse many times in the past.
(If the 9 does in fact scratch from this race, move up the 3. And then throw the 1 MARZO into the mix.)
Race 6
#10 Animus
This looks to be a very competitive race on paper with many well matched horses. I’ll take a little shot with this guy on top. He was claimed three back, and now seems to be in the best form of his career. He’s also been more effective on dirt than on turf, so he’s on his preferred surface today. Plus, he’s finished in the money six out of seven tries at today’s distance. He doesn’t have any early speed, so he’ll need some racing luck and some pace in front of him. Brian Hernandez rides.
#1 Candy Carlos
This 5YO is first off the claim here for Jason Barkley. Barkley is 14% off the claim, so that’s fairly effective. This horse is a 10 time winner, so he’s a real pro. He possesses a little bit of early pace, but he’s also versatile and definitely does not need the lead. He’s another horse in here that’s had success at this distance; nine out of 12 hitting the board. James Graham will have the mount for this one.
#4 Curlins Vow
This gelding is not a real win machine, but his last couple dirt races have been alright. Chris Hartman claimed this one back in May, and that seems to have turned his form around. He is also getting back to his favorite track today, Churchill Downs. Even though he might not be a great win bet opportunity, he definitely has a shot to be in the mix here. Declan Cannon in the irons.
Race 7
#12 Purrfectly Claire
Obviously, this is not a good position. However, I’ll still put her on top in this race. She has a nice win early pedigree being by Munnings and out of an Unbridled’s Song mare. The two most recent works for this horse look very sharp on paper, like she’s ready to run. Trainer Philip Bauer is only hitting with about 5% of his first time starters at the moment, but he does it about 20% with his 2YOs. Julien Leparoux will be aboard for this one, and he is having a great meet.
#8 Irrepressible
Another firster in here with a good pedigree. We all know that Into Mischief can hit with a debut runner. The works look okay on paper, and they paid three quarters of a million for this girl at the 2YO in training sale this past spring. These are top notch connections that can never be dismissed.
#6 Omnia
I know trainer Ian Wilkes doesn’t often win with first time starters, but whenever I see a bullet on the worktab, I give that horse some consideration. He typically doesn’t work his horses too fast, so this horse probably has some natural ability. And I love when that bullet work pairs up with a good sprint/win early pedigree, which this one does. Tiznow is on the bottom side of the family, which could provide some stamina. So 6.5F today shouldn’t be an issue. Chris Landeros will be in irons.
Race 8
#8 Equal Measure
Trainer Bob Hess is shipping this filly in from Southern California. Her two races at Del Mar over the summer were quite good. She sat off of quick paces and finished well at the end. There is very little early speed in here on paper, so she could find herself toward in the front in the early going. She’s a hard trying sort, having hit the board in eight of nine career races. Ricardo Santana will be aboard today.
#9 Woodfin
I’ve bet this horse in her last few races, and she hasn’t disgraced herself. She’s actually cutting back in distance today, and she’s proven that a mile and an eighth is just to her liking. She’s also run two good races here over the Churchill lawn. She is devoid of any early speed, so she’ll be chilling at the back of the pack early on. She’s closed into slow paces before, so even if they don’t go quick up front, I think she can still be effective against this group. Brian Hernandez Jr will be hopping aboard her for the first time today.
#1 Delta’s Kingdom
This filly is the only one in here that’s been knocking heads with stakes competition. Speed figure wise, she just kinda runs the same race every time. Against this field though, that might be good enough. She also doesn’t have early speed, but she does draw an inside post so she should be able to save some ground. Julien Leparoux will ride for trainer Bill Mott.