Mohawk Racing Analysis — Monday, March 18, 2019, by Keith Rosintoski

PICK 5 RACES 1-5

R1:  1 STORMONT CHARLOTTE is the A, 3 & 4 the “others” but will wait for odds before making any final decisions
R2:  6 LET’S HAVE ANOTHER (MOST LIKELY OF THE WHOLE SEQUENCE, “EVERYONE’S SINGLE?)
R3:  8 BEE IN CHARGE is the A, tossing the 2, 7 MISTER MAGIC is a B
R4:  1358 (just against the race others come out of, that’s all)
R5:  Going to hope people still use the ML to handicap, you’ll never get 6-1 on 7 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP, BUT MAYBE IN THE P5 YOU GET LIKE 5-2?  We’ll see, nothing clever to try to beat him though
Overall, looks pretty chalky, but the 4th race could easily produce the price we need to turn a nice profit, so worth a shot.  Good Luck!!


PICK 5 TICKETS $47.20 TOTAL

1 / 6 / 78 / 1358 / 7 FOR $2 = $16
13 / 6 / 8 / 1358 / 7 FOR $1 = $8
14 / 6 / 8 / 1358 / 7 FOR .60C = $4.80
34 / 6 / 78 / 1358 / 7 FOR .40C = $6.40
1 / 6 / 8 / 1358 / 7 FOR $3 =$12


RACE 1
4 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ another sharp score last week, surely the price is gone tonight, right?  
3 DERF HANOVER got parked past the quarter last week from post 10 and after that looked like something went totally wrong, I can’t come up with a reason for why he was so bad, but he’s back in the box again, he’s going to take money in this spot, he fits well, I just can’t bet him 3 weeks in a row, especially off that last race, unless he’s more than 5-1, but he won’t be
1 STORMONT CHARLOTTE is who I’m going to look for tonight, the 3 should inflict more pace into the race than last week and that helps this one’s chances, and that could change the results up quite a bit, from the rail, she’ll save ground, she’ll be a fair price
5 QUADRANGLE and 6 MONOPOLY really had no excuses last week, tough to recommend either to finish the job tonight, much prefer others
BOTTOM LINE: 1 STORMONT CHARLOTTE is worth a play at 9-2 or more


RACE 2
6 LET’S HAVE ANOTHER was a neck from winning in one of the most bizarrely driven races a week ago, nonetheless, that was first off the “mini-break” from the races, and I’d be surprised if they touched him tonight
5 MC PAT was so bad last week!! Keith off?  He could just have issues, seems like he’s very difficult to steer, I would probably pick if he was 20-1 but he won’t be, he was 26-1 when he met the favorite on February 7th at this level though, so I wouldn’t want a short price
BOTTOM LINE:  6 LETS HAVE ANOTHER is the most likely winner here, not that you need my help for that



RACE 3

2 ON THE SLY tried a first over trip last week, made the front, looked okay but was probably never going to beat the winner who is back in here tonight, interesting player, but I think most people will bet him off that effort and he never really looked like a winner in there
8 BEE IN CHARGE gets a pilot change tonight and may not be as aggressive from post 8, and that could spell trouble, but once again he’s the one to beat, and the odds will reflect such, the question is, do you single 2 weeks in a row?
7 MISTER MAGIC changes barns and did miss a couple of weeks prior to last week’s start, I wonder if he gets more involved tonight as well with the driver change, (I know that seems crazy CC to Hudon), of the others he’s the only one I’d want though, as I think the favorite will take some beating
BOTTOM LINE: 7 MISTER MAGIC at 7-1 or more

RACE 4 (TOUGH RACE)
BOTTOM LINE:  I have an opinion, I hate the race that 2467 all come out of, and I want to play against those horses, as the winner was all alone on the front, and the only reason the others got close was bc the best horse in the race drifted the entire stretch once reaching the leaders wheel, all the rest chased a tired front runner home long after the race was over making it look like they were finishing much better than they actually were.  2 BATTING STATS had some traffic in there, but saved ground throughout, the 4 MYSTICAL MISSION is going to be 1/3rd the price from last week, and anyone betting 7 OLE JACK MAGIC at 5-2 or anything close needs help.

I’ll use the others, 1,3,5,8 and try to “survive” with a price
RACE 5
BOTTOM LINE:  7 MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP not only is the most likely winner but will be your post time favorite, not sure why they put 6-1 on the ML…it’s wrong….I say 8-5 but maybe that’s even too high.  The only other horse that could be considered for favoritism drew post 10, and somehow they mad him 10-1, he’ll be the 2nd or 3rd choice though and that line is ridiculous too.  

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