I want to thank Daily Gallop for giving me the opportunity to be your Wednesday handicapper for the Saratoga meet! What a fun blessing for my first day to have miserable weather and likely be off the turf ☹. Stick with me and let’s make some money!
I plan on giving out 1 play each Wednesday to follow along. Let’s see what kind of ROI we can get on this play by the end of the meet. For ease, we will plan on making the play $15 each week. One race only.
Race 1-
Steeplechase. I would never lead you in the wrong direction. I have no idea how to cap these races as I have never done so before. Your dart is as good as my dart in this spot!
Race 2 (1-3-2)
Myitalianamerican comes into this race with a pretty big drop in class. Goes from 150K Stakes race to a 100K NY bred Stakes race. Always pay attention when horses are going into open company or coming out of races from open company because they are generally much tougher than State Bred races. LTO this horse was against the track and still made a very nice closing move. Out of all of the horses in it’s previous race, this is the one I want the most. Should enjoy the minor stretch out and I look for this one to clear late.
Race 3 (2-9-7) ** Planning for this to be off track
Interesting race here but I ultimately landed on the 2, Jewel Can Disco. The main reason I landed here is because of the Rudy Rod jail move. Shoutout @jailmovemaster. Jewel is coming in first time after being claimed in 40k claimer by Rudy Rod. 38 days later and here we are entered in in this 95k allowance. Nothing screams confidence like protecting your horse like this. Rudy Rod is 30% off this type of jail move and with Irat on board, percentage jumps to 36%. If this horse draws in, I don’t imagine we will get 6:1. Coming in with a very nice workout pattern that I like to see and 2nd off the LO. Let’s send it.
Race 4 (2-7-6)
With boutique meets like Saratoga, it’s important to look a certain trainer tendencies. Hope Again finds himself here coming in 3rd off the layoff for Thomas who loves pointing his horses here. Athough Born Again is taking a big jump in class, Thomas is an astounding 38% with shippers going to NYRA. Couple that with Bravo who hits 44% for Thomas while being in the money 78% of the time. As if this wasn’t enough, I loved the previous race for Hope again. While watching the replay, this horse showed a solid turn of foot and really geared down. If I decide to play horizontals or can get around the ML here, this will be my single.
Race 5 (2-6-4)
Normally I love me some baby races. Capping pedigree and trainer patterns are my favorite thing to handicap. There wasn’t a ton that really stuck out to me here, so by process of elimination, I landed on #2, Ain’t None Lucky, as my top choice. This horse has a nice string of works coming in and when I went back to watch the last replay, the horse fell to knees out of the gate and still ran a pretty game third. She has tons of win early pedigree on the dam side and I like that Gaudet brings Rosado to ride her again. A slight improvement of her last race should put her in the winner’s circle here.
** If track is muddy or sloppy, upgrade the 4
Race 6 (4-5-3)
I found myself of Ardara Belle this race. At 15:1 on the ML, I think there is value to be had. As I mentioned earlier, I like looking for certain tendencies at meets like Saratoga. Today, Ardara Belle adds blinks and Santana gets the mount for Atras. Santana is 1-1 with Atras this meet and 2-3 lifetime. Atras has only brought a few runners to the Spa over the last 5 years, but with Santana having the mount on the only winner which came on 7/12, I think these is reason enough to back this horse. This horse had a very nice work on July 6th and I was able to watch it on XBTV. Now cuts back in distance and I think AB is logical in this spot.
Race 7 (1-7-13) ** Planning for this to be off track
Four Ten got a terrible trip on debut for a barn who isn’t known for having firsters cranked. I am willing to excuse that trip and back the 1, Four Ten, in this spot today. First time Lasix and the works have been outstanding. The dam was 2-3 on an offtrack so he shouldn’t have any issues taking to the track. Horse gets a big jock upgrade to Alvarado who wins at a 27% clip for Jerkins. This horse is logical in this spot and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him cross the line first.
Race 8 (4-7-5)
I get 15:1 on Lezcano and a closer? Yes please. This race is going to have to heat up a bit but I don’t see #4, Slimey, being too far off the pace. He will likely be last, but I’m not seeing him too far back. This horse has tons of experience on a sloppy track and was against the bias LTO. This horse has a BIG time chance to win and an even BIGGER shot to hit the board. Second off the layoff and I will be making a play on this one.
Race 9 (5-7-6)
If I had a guess, this Linda Rice runner is going to be a huge underlay. Everyone who follows horse racing, knows that Linda is coming into form now and is on her way to having a hell of a meet. Honor Way ran huge LTO and was able to win the race against some slow fractions. Jose and Linda are super sharp together and when the barn is live, this combo is deadly. Talk Veuve To Me is a logical favorite in this spot and a return to top should win here but I think the value is going to be on Honor Way.
Race 10 (
Wednesday 7/16 Bonus play: Race 8
$4 win on 4
$.50 trifecta 1,3,5,7 with 1,3,5,7 with 4
$.50 trifecta 1,3,5,7 with 4 with 1,3,5,7