GRAND TOTAL (2018-current): 514: 120-100-87, -17.2% ($1,028 wagered, $851 returned)
Top Pick Win Rate = 23.3%
Top Pick ITM Rate = 59.7%
2019-2020 Aqueduct
Week 1 (11/2) – 10: 2-2-2, -30% ($20 wagered, $16 returned)
Week 2 (11/9) – 10: 0-1-4, -100% ($20 wagered, zero returned)
Week 3 (12/7) – 10: 2-2-2. -53% ($20 wagered, $9.40 returned)
Week 4 (12/14) – 9: 5-1-1, +98.89% ($18 wagered, $35.80 returned)
Week 5 (12/21) – 9: 2-2-2, even ($18 wagered, $17.90 returned)
Week 6 (12/28) – 9: 0-4-1, -100% ($18 wagered, zero returned)
Week 7 (1/4) – 9: 4-0-1, +97.7% ($18 wagered, $35.90 returned)
TOTAL: 66: 15-12-13, -14.4% ROI ($132 wagered, $113 returned)
Race 1
2 – Hudson Overpass – I like the last two efforts, both of which over the Aqueduct dirt, and he draws nicely inside with a chance to use his early zip and get on or near the lead. He ran well in his turf starts, but likely appreciates the main track a little more and certainly fits in this bunch with hopes of a long-overdue graduation. 2-3-4
Race 2
5 – We Should Talk – he flopped as the big favorite right here last month and will go off as the chalk again today, and as much as I want to try and beat him here I just can’t see past his speed figures and the first-claim angle for the Atras barn (26%). One published work since the last start was promising, and he gets a jockey upgrade to Franco. Hold your breath and single in the pick 5… 5-2-1
Race 3
7 – Wild Cat West – boring, I know… but I’m going with another single in the pick 5 here. Gary and Mary West bred an A.P. Indy colt that lands in the Jason Servis barn after a sneaky-sharp debut at Keenland, and this is exactly the spot where you have to fear this barn (27% with first time runners, even better on the dirt). The outside slot in this one-turn mile could prove to be ideal, and he adds a top pilot in Lezcano. 7-2-1
Race 4
5 – Hot Little Honey – going to use the top two in the pick 5 (2 & 4), but I like the Mike Maker second-timer in this field. She got after a hot pace in the debut and paid the price, but she drops a level today and gets the added benefit of both Lasix and blinkers for the first time. Maker does well with his maidens on the sophomore journey (23%) and the price will be very fair considering the two chalks. 5-2-4
Race 5
8 – Sobersick N Sorry – Linda Rice crushes it in the claiming ranks with her first-off-claim runners (24%), and I absolutely love the pace setup this gelding should get here today. He draws to the relative outside in a field of eleven and has two burners to his right. In his last two starts he’s shown a nice ability to rate and sit just off the speed, and I think Lezcano gives him a similar ride today. The figures fit perfectly and we might even get a nice price if the inside favorites get bet down. 8-7-2
Race 6
3 – Blindwillie McTell – has yet to run a bad race in seven career starts and comes in today off the big layoff from his last start at Saratoga in August. He was battling away for Linda Rice in listed state-bred stakes company so this field should suit him just fine, and I think he gets a nice set-up just off the pace in a field that should have some zip to it. Short price, but in a field this salty I think there’s still some value. 3-7-2
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Race 7
7-Playwright – his last two starts were both pretty solid at this level so he must be respected, and the Gargan barn hits with 22% of runners off this layoff. The switch from Carmouche to Franco shouldn’t make much of a difference considering the talents of each rider, and I think he’s primed for a big run here. He has four wins in nine tries at today’s distance and seems to like the Big A, so despite the likely short price I think we’re looking at doubles into and out of this runner. 7-10-3
Race 8
6 – Arthur’s Hope – Simple play for me in a very nice field, as he could get loose on the lead and sports a triple-digit figure back at Parx. Carmouche will have him on the engine early, and despite being caught by a few of today’s foes two-back, I think he might have an easier time up front with slightly less early pressure signed on. Price play, pace play…. the right play?? 6-5-3
Race 9
10-9-2
Have a great Saturday everyone!
2019 Belmont (Fall)
Final Total: 55: 9-12-9, -41.6% ($110 wagered, $64.20 returned)
2019 Saratoga
Final Total – 66: 17-14-16, +11.3% ROI ($132 wagered, $146.90 returned)
2019 Belmont (spring)
Final Total – 65: 13-9-10, -43.8% ROI ($130 wagered, $73 returned)
2018-2019 Aqueduct
Final Total: 202: 51-37-24, -16.3% ROI ($404 wagered, $338.20 returned)
2018 Saratoga
Final Total: 60: 15-16-15, -3.6% ROI ($120 wagered, $115.70 returned)