Early Pick 5 Plays:
36/6/ 1245/35/12346789
123456/ 346/5/ 35/236789
Race 1: 8F TURF MSW $55K 4YO+ PACE: Moderate/ Contentious
Projection: 6-3-1-5 Horizontals: A: 3,6 B: 1,5 C:2,4 X: 7,8
A MSW event where all 8 runners are newly turned 4YO’s but there are some promising horses entered in here today. The first three runners exit the same race where all ran into some trouble throughout, making the replay a must see here. After review, #1 Cardiff Cay, who was bet down to favoritism in that one and was loaded around the turn and just began his final run when he checked abruptly causing momentum loss and for him to have to re-kick it in down the stretch where he finished strong. Lots to like about this one, but not a fan of the post after seeing inside trouble in past races and no major pace to run at. Smith will need to work out a trip. I will include in horizontals but use underneath vertically. #2 Da Kine had checked as badly just moments before, but did have some extra time to regain momentum and just never got the same kick as the others that finished this race. #3 Commanding Curve was more about the trip itself, we all know the place to be early on the turf is saving ground, and this was not something Victor was able to do positioning the horse in the 3 path on the front stretch and then riding 3rd in a 3 wide stack all the way to the turn before ducking inside on the far turn into the stretch and chasing on the inside. A backwards trip, but still finished just a neck off the winner. Commanding Curve earned an “8” Thorograph figure, which matches one other in todays bunch for top, but has been in this 8 range for three straight without much trouble, ground loss aside. (note thorograph figs account for groundloss, but not trouble such as steadying, checking, or being off slow). Rosario takes the mount today, and if there were a jock to improve this one, he’s the guy. Horse got a breather and has a nice strong of “B” works coming into the race. #6 Lincoln City is the other horse with an “8” top on thorograph, and is an interesting one in here with the stretch-out after running his first 6 races in sprints, and all at less than 6F. Krujac has been hot with his sprint to route moves, and workouts state that he is moving like he will like the route of ground. Flattered a bit by Kakiscrocy’s win yesterday (was third to his second last out), and has been a pace presence at the sprint distances so will be curious to see if he goes to the lead in this one where not a lot of early pace is signed on. I like Rispoli grabbing this mount, a major upgrade. One that with improvement will be dangerous, as figures already fit. The wild card in here is #5 Border Town who comes to Mandella from the Chad Brown barn for owners Ramona and Perry Bass. Has been popular at the windows in each of his two east coast turf starts (both at a mile) for Brown but could not find the winners circle in what were 2 adventurous trips. Well bred by War Front, and a full to stakes winner Hit a Bomb who only ran twice but topped at an impressive “2” figure for thorograph. Value at 5-1 based on breed and talent, but needs to put things together here out west.
Race 2: 6.5F DIRT MSW $55K 4YO+ (CA BREDS) PACE: Moderate/ Duo Ins/Out
Projection: 6-3-4-1 Horizontals: A: 6 B:3,4 C:1 X:2,5
The top two ML choices in here are a combined 0-10 (but 8 for 10 in hitting the bard) so not a bad race to try and beat the favorites, right? Not for me, I can’t leave #6 Grandpa Louie off my ticket. The likely fav in the race and coming out for the red hot Peter Miller/ Rockingham connections, if you put a line through the turf and wet track at LRC, and the pre-Miller LRC debut try, you are left with 2 races on fast dirt and similar conditions to today. In one, he was beat by eventual stakes winner Lieutenant Dan, and the other by an impressive debut win for Tigre de Slugo who earned an 87 Beyer and is awaiting his next race. Today Grandpa Louie gets a jock upgrade, a comfy outside post in a short field, blinkers off (27% win rate and +ROI move for Miller) and has the likely controlling speed. If you are looking to take a shot against the favorites, #3 A Man’s Man is an improving sort with nice recent works coming off his debut at LRC where it was over early following a slow start at a sprint distance. Koriner is 21% in 2nd start with MSW’s. #4 Brace for Impact is another with a strong likelihood to improve. Has been drawn inside each of his first two races and got off to troubled starts, despite this showed some real potential with a nice 2nd place finish last out. Drayden gets the mount today, an upgrade and one that has a near $3.00 ROI with Headly, and gets blinkers to improve the early focus. Both sibs that have raced are fulls and both have won with a 10 or better thorograph fig, a number that could win today. A must use underneath, and if looking to go deeper than Grandpa Louie horizontally, would include.
Race 3: 5.5F TURF AOC $20k N1X (CA BREDS) 4YO+ Pace: Controlling Speed #5
Projection: 5-2-1-4 Horizontal: A=5 B=1,2,4 C=7,8 X=3,6
For a 5.5F dash there sure is a lack of early speed drawn into this one today. #5 Hit the Seam, who took 17 tries to break his maiden, did so this summer over the Santa Anita Turf via a 5F sprint. Has never had an uncontested lead, so his ability to fend off other pace presence is appealing. Was game in his try after his maiden win, losing by a bob after a long duel, and in last was on the rail and dueled inside. The horse to his outside (#6) is the only other logical speed, but man do I not like Bejarano on early speed, not the best gate rider out there. Should a jock/horse try some new tactics today and pace becomes quicker than expected, #2 Foster Boi is looking fresh off his layoff and September gelding. A very strong string of works for D’Amato, this one was highly thought of off his debut win last March where he was even money, and then entered into Stakes company and bet down to favoritism. Question is, will he be cranked up for this one, or are there bigger plans for him. A sneaky long shot could be #4 Midnight Special for Victor Garcia who was claimed at this level last time out. Garcia off the claim lifetime is 23% with a $3.31 ROI, pretty impressive, and immediately puts this horse on turf (never seen the green in 15 lifetime starts). Works have been pretty dull, but something tells me Victor saw something in this one and at 12-1 or better, is worth an include here.
Race 4: 1M DIRT MSW $55k 3YO FILLIES PACE: UNDETERMINED
Projection: 5-3-4 Horizontal: A=3,5 B= C=4 X=1,2,6
Not a race to be seeking value in as I am seeing this as a two horse race between the $700k Classy Ruler and the Baffert Storie Blue. #3 Storie Blue is interesting, for those that follow @clockerandy workout reports, you know how odd it is to see a Baffert horse debuting off “C” works. In that debut a 1M, which was a 4 horse field and included the #4 Cosmic Cowgirl from today’s race as the ML fav, the pace was crawling but DVD was sitting patient behind the short field and was able to blow by Cosmic Cowgirl with ease but came up short to the winner Rare Find (who was 3rd in Fridays stakes race behind Gingham). But then you see the works become more “Baffert-like” and in her second start showed a 15-point Beyer improvement and 4-point Thorograph jump. Works have continued to get better, and see this one continuing to improve on figures today. That said, improvement will be needed to catch #5 Classy Ruler, the big-ticket purchase for CRK debuted against the much hyped Golden Principle by Baffert/Pegram (who runs in todays stakes race) and came in 2nd. Sherrifs is career 32% with 2nd time out MSW at 4-1 or less, and 4 for his last 11, 2nd time out. Mike has been working this one in the mornings, always a good sign, and the B+ works from Andy Harrington don’t hurt either.
Race 5: 8F DIRT MDCLM $20K 4YO+ PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 6-7-8-2-3 Horizontal: A- 6,7 B: 2,3,8 C:1,4,9 X 5,10
Tough race to handicap, and ofcourse this low level maiden claiming race will be smack dab in the middle of the card and part of both the early and late Pick 4 and Pick 5’s. My advice, tread carefully and be deep here unless you really have a strong opinion. In these lower level maiden claimers, I like to eliminate horses off a string of poor works, and elevate those coming in with strong works. Unfortunately, all of these horses are coming in with C+/B- works with no notes to eliminate or elevate. Next, up is speed, who can get to the front? In this one, quite a few appear to have some early leg, so looking for this one to be quite contentious early on, but two of the early speed horses are of interest. #6 Mona Luna raced well at a 50k claiming level two back, finishing third to a MSW dropper and next out winner. When dropping to MD20k next out, went off at 3-1 and was stubborn in a duel til the end, losing by ¾. Has got some time off since the duel and a strong of 5 works so should be fit and ready. The big concern with this one is the final ¼ times in the last 2 of 27.99. #7 Hypersonic ran a nice race at CD in June where he got a “10” figure, best of this bunch. That was at 9F, where in the stretch he was pulling way until caught in the final furlong. Has been away since August, but has a strong of 6 consecutive works leading into this one today. #8 Fort Dodge has the best final quarter’s of this bunch, so if there is a staggerfest late, he could be the one to pick up the pieces. Has not gotten the benefit of running late into a hot pace, may get his wish today. #3 Darkhawk could be interesting in here too. Don’t eliminate based on the fact he is a former QH, as his trainer is 24% $2.52 when going sprint to route. Smiling tiger babies are 14% at 1M and over and this one has shown late kick at sprint distances, sneaky at 12-1. #2 Crosstown returns to dirt after three turf tries and attracts Cedillo. Last time on dirt was dueled into submission and prior dirt starts were against much stronger than what we have here today.
Late Plays (no analysis)
Race 6: 10-2-4-1
Race 7: 2-7-1 (Baffert has this race on lockdown)
Race 8: 9—457 (Factoral Single)