Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won 10 of his last 25 races (40%).
Hot Trainer: Mark Glatt has won his 5 of his last 13 races (38%).
Weather: 81 degrees and sunny. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 2YO Md Sp Wt 50k [S] – 4.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: N/A
Selections: #3 Tripp a Matic 3-1, #2 Teton Valley 4-1, #7 Intense 8-1
Santa Anita kicks off a nice day of racing this Friday with a field of eight state bred two-year olds going 4.5F on the dirt. The #3 Tripp a Matic has much to like here, and the angle that sticks out to me is that the dam (Chanceofalifetime) is 30% with 2YOs and a staggering 45% with first time starters. Additionally, Mendez puts his top jockey Rubin Fuentes aboard and this Jockey/Trainer combo is hitting at a 37% clip for a $3.08 ROI. Next up is the #2 Teton Valley, trained by Ryan Hanson and Jorge Velez gets the mount. Sire (Tapiture) is 20% with 2YO firsters, and the Velez/Hanson combo is 7/18. However, they are 0/7 with first starts so I will leave underneath. Finally, to round out the bottom of my selections we have the #7 Intense. Sire Competitive Edge is 20% with 2YO first time starters, and 20% with dirt sprints. Workouts are not spectacular, but Mike Harrington gets Umberto Rispoli who should be able to have this horse hit the board.
Race 2: 3YO+ Clm 25000N2L [F] – 5.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #2 Dortia’s Lemon 10-1, #7 Hot On the Trail 5-2, #4 Your Royal Coil 2-1
The second race of the day is a 5.5F dirt sprint for fillies three-years old and up. This race seems lacking in pace as there is no true early speed horse. I expect the #4 Your Royal Coil to fight for the early lead with the #3 Remember to Smile to the inside doing the same. The #3 looks to be a turf horse, and while the #4’s prior speed figures look good, they came on days where the track heavily favored speed. The addition of blinkers (Trainer Aguirre 0/6 with this move) makes me want to leave the favorite (#4) underneath. I expect the #7 Hot On The Trail to be rolling late with Cedillo aboard for hot trainer Mark Glatt. Glatt runs exceptionally well with horses moving from turf/dirt (26%) and removes the blinkers from this well working filly. However, I much prefer the #2 Dorita’s Lemon at a price. Second time starter should be able to stalk the 3 and 4 and gain the lead on the turn. Umberto Rispoli was kept 4 wide in Dorita’s first start, and his well timed move got him the win at 6F on 2/28. Rispoli keeps the mount here and trainer Eric Kruljac is 27% for a $3.71 ROI with layoffs of 61-180 days. Top selection.
Race 3: 3YO+ OC 20k/N1X [S] – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #2 Smiling Annie 5-2, #4 Swing Thoughts 6-1, #3 Square Peggy 7-2
I expect this third race to have a fair amount of pace as the #1, #3, and #6 all look like they prefer the lead. This leads me down a path where I usually like to take a horse that is off the pace or closing late. I expect the early speed horses to fade, which should set up for my top selection the #2 Smiling Annie for Cedillo and Glatt to take this one (16%). In February, Smiling Annie lost to Querelle who had just returned to a win last week at this distance/surface, which is encouraging. Next, I like the #4 Swing Thoughts who fits the bill as a closing type. Steve Knapp first off the claim connects at 26% and keeps Swing Thoughts at the same level. Finally, I expect the #3 Square Peggy to hold on to enough of her early lead to hang on for third, and she should appreciate the return to turf with the cutback in distance as well.
Race 4: 3YO+ Md 20000 [F] – 1 1/16 Miles Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #1 Manresa 8-5, #8 Diva in Charge 5-2, #6 Suezaaana 5-1
The fourth race of the card looks simple to me, and I see few contenders. The #1 Manresa stands out to me as she received a 66 Beyer stalking the pace and losing by a neck going a mile on dirt on 3/8. This figure towers over the field and her off the pace running style should suit her here. The #8 Diva in Charge 5-2 stretches out from the 6.5F distance with Flavien Prat aboard, a move that Peter Eurton wins at 16% with. Will have to largely improve here, but this is not out of the question as the workouts look good. Underneath I will leave the loan speed horse #6 Suezaaana. Normally, lone speed is an angle I like to play, but I am not sure Suezaaana can handle this distance.
Race 5: 3YO+ OC 62k/N2X – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #1 Odysseus 2-1, #5 Proud Pedro (Fr) 4-1, #7 Hit the Road 6-1
The #1 Odysseus finds himself in a route where he may very well end up as the pace setter. Son of Candy Ride rallied to a debut win in a 5.5F turf sprint. Last race was on 3/8 at the OC 40k N1X level going 1 mile where he easily handled the added distance and layoff. I expect improvement here and Velez should get the Job done for Richard Mandella as these two connect at a 23% clip. If the #6 and #8 horses end up pressuring the pace, I think the race could set up well for #5 Proud Pedro (Fr) to steal this one. However, he may want a bit longer. This last out winner takes a hike in class and retains top Jockey Flavien Prat, who connects at a whopping 32% with trainer Leonard Powell. Finally, the Triple Crown nominated #7 Hit the Road falls out of stakes race while coming off a six-month layoff where Dan Blacker is 3/9 with the move. Has been working well and should improve here.
Race 6: 3YO+ Clm 12500 – 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #6 Fast Cotton 3-1, #9 Short of Ez 5-2, #10 Papa Turf 2-1
The #6 Fast Cotton returns from a seven-month layoff for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Agapito Delgadillo. If this gelding simply returns to form here, he should be very competitive in this spot. Has the fastest early speed in the race, and I see no issues with him getting the lead. Should be tough to catch here. The #9 Short of Ez reunites with Flavien Prat and should save ground for a late run. Short of Ez likes Santa Anita and is 2/6 at this distance in his career. Finally, the #10 Papa Turf looks strong here, but I feel that the post position may be too much to overcome so I will prefer to leave underneath.
Race 7: 3YO+ Clm 12500N2L – 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #10 Mayan Warrior 2-1, #6 Red Valor 6-1, #7 Captain Buzzkill 5-1
There is not much to like here in this lowest class level for winners at Santa Anita. The #10 Mayan Warrior looks to be the class of the field and has past races that suggest that this horse could win easy. In his latest race at Los Alamitos, Mayan Warrior was bumped on both sides at the start, rallied to mid pack, gained the lead briefly going 4 wide, and lost by a length. I expect Fuentes to get a much better trip here. Workout reports suggest that the #6 Red Valor may be poised for a sharp run here and has shown that he has speed in the past. Finally, Gary Mandella drops the #7 Captain Buzzkill into the claiming ranks from allowance races where he is 0/5 with the move. I find the drop concerning but Captain Buzzkill should find this field easier to hang around.
Race 8: 3YO+ OC 40k/N1X – 1 Mile Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #8 Nolo Contesto 6-1, #7 Tizamagician 2-1, #3 Canyon Crest 8-1
The eighth race might be the best of the day as we get to watch some exciting horses in a competitive field. Top selection the #8 Nolo Contesto should be able to take advantage of the pace by just off it for the John Sadler barn. His last three races were on turf, and while they were not terrible efforts, Nolo Contesto clearly prefers dirt. This horse has been working well, and Sadler connects 31% while moving from turf to dirt. Umberto Rispoli and Sadler are 3/6 at Santa Anita so far. #7 Tizamagician is one of two three-year olds in the race. It’s tough to pick against the MyRaceHorse crew, but I expect Tizamagician to find himself in a pace duel with the #4 to his inside. Has a shot to get the job done if he can gain the lead. Finally, I am intrigued by the other three-year old #3 Canyon Crest with top jockey Flavien Prat and trainer Michael McCarthy. The switch to dirt appears to have helped him, and his deep closing style along with a lighter weight by six pounds may give this horse a shot.
Race 9: 3YO+ Md Sp Wt 50k – 1 Mile Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #9 Warren’s Empress 6-1, #6 On Mars 5-2, #4 Goodtingscominpink 7-2
In a race somewhat lacking in pace I would not be surprised if the #9 Warren’s Empress finds herself forwardly placed or on the lead early. One mile and an eighth seemed a but much in her last race on 3/20, so the cut back in distance should be appreciated. Worked well from the gate earlier this week and did so easily, suggesting that she may be ready to make a step forward here. #6 On Mars figures to get the lead early and she should appreciate the added distance. She bobbled the start last out and rallied from way off the pace for second. Mike Smith and Phillip D’Amato are batting 50% on six starts this year. #4 Goodtingscominpink rounds out the selections as she comes off a 10-month layoff. One of two four-year olds in the field here, and she would have a shot to win easy if she returns to form. Trainer Vladimir Cerin is 7% off layoffs over 180 days so I will prefer to leave underneath.