Churchill Downs Racing Analysis- Saturday May 1 2019- By Mike McEntire

Churchill Downs Saturday June 1, 2019

Mike McEntire

Twitter: @Gorgonzola44

Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves the twilight racing, bourbon chasing, early pacing, and Beef Wellington. His fiancé is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.

Fade me.

Race One: 6:00 post – MC 40000 5 F 2 Fillies

3-2-4-7

Early scratches have decimated this race leaving only five runners from the original field of eight. #4 Annabelle’s Babe has been made the ML favorite off of her solid Churchill outing on 5/9/19, but I am going to play against her as she still isn’t a world-beater and Jon Court, her jockey in her last race, didn’t stay on her. Her last workout certainly says that I am tossing her at my own peril, but I don’t think she is all that special.  #2 Ignis is the most logical contender to beat the favorite, but this Asmussen owned and trained filly is sure to take a boat load of money as well. If you are playing horizontally, I suppose you need to use both of these or take a stand. I am taking a stand with #3 Jewel Thief. Trainer Joe Sharp has put seven solid works into her since early April and even worked her twice from the gate in a likely attempt to improve her from the gate. She was a $30k Keeneland September purchase, so her entry here makes a ton of sense and Sharp is capable enough with FTS. Getting Gabriel Saez first time out certainly doesn’t hurt either. Judging by her most recent work, I think she will fire from the gate and make the others come get her.

Race Two: 6:28 post – Claiming 10000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up

4-2-5-1

#2 Bless His Heart easily has the highest Brisnet speed figure in his last race and makes a ton of sense in this spot. I can’t say that I am thrilled with him changing trainers, changing circuits, and dropping down in class. Are the connections looking for a win or are they putting the “For Sale” sign up? Though he will likely be the controlling speed, I am going to play against him in his Churchill debut. The only other runner I am interested in is #4 Daddy’s Gone. The Asmussen owned and trained colt is always in the mix but has only one win from sixteen career starts. I normally don’t endorse these types of runners, but I think that Santana has him a little more forwardly placed today and he should have enough pace to compliment his running style.

Race Three: 6:56 post – MC 75000 6 ½ F 3YO&Up F&M

3-4-6-2

In a short field of pretty nondescript runners, #4 Rumandice is a complete standout on paper and looks to be very deserving of her ML favorite status. At odds-on, is she worth the play? She is 0 for 9 lifetime, but she has definitely been running against better. If you can stomach the price, you can play her and she is a definite must use in horizontals. The remaining runners all look to slow, but the Victoria Oliver FTS #3 Hot Copy may be loaded for bear. It won’t take much to beat this crew and her morning workouts are certainly well-intentioned and the 5/23/19 Keeneland workout was a scorcher from the gate. Oliver normally doesn’t do too well with her FTS, but this Watts Humphrey runner may be an exception.

Race Four:  7:26 post – Claiming 20000 6 F 3YO Fillies

1-5-6-8

#5 Warrior Empress was claimed for $50K by Loooch in February 2019 and won the next time out for the same amount before being thrown into deeper waters on Kentucky Oaks Day. She was jostled a bit in her last race and had to use too much horse to get position before fading down the lane in her last race. I suppose that the drop in class is a bit suspicious, but Loooch did get a paycheck out of her. She is a must use. #6 Merada is plenty capable for Steve Asmussen and her drop in class may be just what she needs. The Tom Amoss runner #1 Just Grace showed some natural improvement in her 5/19/19 Churchill race where she nosed a pretty solid Ipanema Beach. Any improvement here in her second start of this form cycle makes her an easy winner.

Race Five: 7:57 post – Claiming 30000n2L 6 F 3YO&Up

1-5-4-3

Zayat Stables gave #4 Industrialist, a $300K City Zip, every chance in the world to earn his keep before finally having him claimed away on his graduation day on 3/1/19 at Oaklawn. Vhris Hartman is a fine trainer, but each of the three previous trainers is surely better. He could win here, but I am not inspired by the recent workouts since the change in barns. #5 Dig Charlie Dig was claimed at this level on 5/1/19 by Brad Cox and he has been known to improve runners in his first off the claim. A Win here would not surprise me.  #1 Senor Jobim showed a ton of promise for Steve Asmussen early in his career, but his recent efforts are ugly, despite being heavily backed. Asmussen throws the blinkers on today and he returns to a logical spot while keeping Santana in the irons. His last workout was useful and he should improve in his second start of this form cycle.

Race Six: 8:30 post – Allowance 50000s 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO

6-4-3-2

#4 Handsome Honey looks surprisingly useful in this spot at a bit of a price and I would consider putting him on top if Corey Lanerie didn’t decide to jump ship. His past three efforts are good enough to have him knocking on the door, but he loses his jock of the last five races? Use him underneath. #3 Alliterative also makes a ton of sense based on his last two races. I am not a huge fan of the ship from Sam Houston and his works seem a touch off. Lanerie jumped to #6 Kaziranga in his second start since being claimed from Steve Asmussen for $50K. New trainer didn’t move him up at all in the first start in his barn, but I expect this is a much more realistic spot for the son of Candy Ride in his second try on the sod. The lightbulb goes on today.

Race Seven: 9:05 post – MSW 95K 7 F 3YO&Up F&M

2-10-3-5

#5 Grandezza ran into an absolute monster on 5/2/19 here at Churchill when losing by almost two lengths in a huge effort. She was ten clear of third place and deserved to graduate that night. That said, it makes no sense that Miguel Mena jumps off of her for #2 Curlita unless he knows something we don’t. I’d watch the tote board on Curlita as her workouts are just good enough to earn consideration and De La Cerda is no joke with FTS at 20%. If her ML dips early, she’s live. Speaking of FTS, #3 Seven Arrows crushed 46.2 in a Keeneland workout on 5/7/19 for Rodolphe Brisset and she gets Florent Geroux for her debut. She is definitely worth watching on the tote too. #10 Second Coming is supposed to be good as indicated by her $310K price tag at the 2017 Keeneland September sale. She ran into the same monster as Grandezza on 5/2/19 but was bet to favoritism before spitting the bit. I think this daughter of Ghostzapper is better than the #5.

Race Eight: 9:39 post – OC 72500n1x 1 1/16 Mile 3YO

2-3-7-1

I honestly don’t know how you don’t single Brad Cox’s #2 Night Ops in this OC $72.5. His two Oaklawn Park efforts since returning from a brief lay-off are plenty good enough and he was just nosed by Laughing Fox, a Preakness Runner, on 5/4/19. I suppose #3 Get the Prize could spring a mild upset as he lost to a very game Limonite on Kentucky Derby day. If it’s not these two, #7 Rotation makes a ton os sense.

Race Nine: 10:11 post – Mighty Beau Overnight 120K 5 F Turf 3YO&Up

5-7-10-3

If #10 Bobby’s Wicked One takes to the turf in his first attempt this race is over. I am not a huge fan of the outside draw, but I have zero doubt that Miguel Mena is going to gun for the lead and play “come catch me.” I really wanted #6 Morticia in this spot, but this mare scratched, so I need another if I don’t think the #10 will relish the turf.   #5 Extravagant Kid will do just fine at 5/1 on the ML as he is in the third race of his current form after a three month layoff for trainer Brendan Walsh. Tyler Gaffalione gets back in the irons after a brief trip to Woodbine for a narrow loss in a G3. I also wouldn’t sleep on the first time gelding #7 Texas Wedge. Sure, it has been ten months since his last race, but Peter Miller decided to geld him and he certainly has had plenty of workouts in preparation for his return.

Race Ten: 10:42 post – Aristides 125K 6 F 3YO&Up

3-1-6-7

Tonight’s feature is the Aristides Stakes where the ML favorite #3 Share the Upside looks super tough. His last three races at Oaklawn Park are easily the best lines of all of the races you will find in the PPs of the other entries. I’d love to poke a hole in his form, but I honestly can’t. He is a single for me too. #1 Mr. Crow has plenty of back class and is very useful underneath, but he would really need to improve for Ben Colebrook to get his picture taken tonight. #6 Wilbo loves Churchill Downs as evidenced by his 7/8 ITM results with five wins over the Twin Spires surface, but his better days are likely behind him.

Race Eleven: 11:10 post – Claiming 40000n2L 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up

3-9-1-4

I can’t remember seeing a race with three first time geldings, but here we are in tonight’s closer. #9 Speed Gun hasn’t been seen for over fifteen months when he absolutely crushed a Fairgrounds MSW field on 2/13/19. He has since changed barns away from Brad Cox and only shows one workout for his return. On paper, he makes sense, but I don’t have enough information to back him as the likely favorite. #1 King of Candy has been facing better and trainer Paul McKee takes the blinkers off tonight. He’ll be around, but he has won one race in his career and I don’t expect a Polaroid tonight. I probably should stay away, but I rather like Dale Romans gelding #3 Gray Nite. Sure, Romans usually rides Robby Albarado as first call, but Channing Hill can handle this one and losing Albarado is a plus in my book. This is a wide-open race, so find your angle, but I’ll give a slight edge to Romans, who is certainly due to get hot.

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