Keeneland Saturday October 26, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves crisp fall weather, Honeycrisp apples, Cookie Crisp cereal, and smuggled Canadian Coffee Crisp treats. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various horse tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Today’s weather forecast calls for rain, so pay attention to scratches and be mindful of the possible slop. It’s been a fun Keeneland Fall meet. Hope you cash some tickets on the closing day.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post – MC 50000 7 F 2YO Fillies
6-2-5-4
Wesley Ward’s FTS #5 Herculina was made the ML favorite at 8/5 and there must be some sort of track buzz about her because I just don’t see it on paper. Sure, Ward hits at 29% with his FTS and we all know that he can get babies ready early, but Verrazano’s first crop only win at 6% first asking and her workout lines don’t exactly scream talent as Ward has been working her on the turf at pedestrian times. I’m going to let the tote board tell me if she is the real deal. Philip Sims’ FTS #6 Blackberry Lisa looks more like a horse that is ready to win at first asking. Though Sims only hits at 8% with his FTS, her morning workouts, especially the two here at Keeneland, look more the part. She also gets jockey Corey Lanerie who crawls off Steve Asmussen’s #2 Miss Firecracker, who also looks pretty logical in her second start.She made the lead and dueled before fading to a dull fifth place finish in her only start for old trainer Brendan Walsh. Herculina may be the real deal here, but I will lean towards Blackberry Lisa until I see the early action on the board because we might need to use all three of these in horizontals wagers. Beware the ridiculously high Tomlinson rating for FTS #4 Dawdle. He could surprise.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Claiming 30000b 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
2-3-7-4
It’s too bad ML favorite #5 Evil Ways scratched as I was looking forward to playing against her. #3 Highland Lass is entered for her first start for trainer Robert Diodoro and M and M Racing. This stable plays the claiming game well and old trainer Jason Barkley had her running against better competition earlier in 2019. The 25% “first after the claim” statistic is reason enough to respect her and she is entered for less than the price they got her on 8/3/19. #2 Full of Grace makes the most sense to me. Trainer McLean Robertson shipped her in from Canterbury almost three weeks ago where she faced a better claiming field. Her 10/2/19 Keeneland workout caused her to take quit a bit of support in her last race, but she faded late. She gets a pilot upgrade today with Ricardo Santana Jr. and she drops to a more realistic spot. Her running style should also be flattered by her post position and the off track will likely help as her best career race came on a good Canterbury strip.
Race Three: 2:12 post – Allowance 73000n2L 1 1/16 Turf 2YO
2-7-5-3
A compact seven horse field of lightly raced baby girls was originally signed on for this allowance turf route, but we scratched down to five runners when the race was taken off the turf, including logical contender #4 Prefect. #7 Street Ready won a 9/22/19MSW at Churchill Downs and he was a horse I liked on the turf, but the move to the main track will cause me to look elsewhere. Trainer Graham Motion’s #5 Kid Mercury didn’t run a step in his last race on 10/6/19 in the Bourbon GIII Stakes here at Keeneland. Though he looked overmatched in that race, but I like the confidence the barn has showed in this horse. I am downgrading him since he hasn’t appeared on dirt, but he still figures. Steve Asmussen might have caught a huge break when this race moved off the turf as #2 Memorable seems like the most likely winner on dirt. He broke his maiden on 5/2/19 over a sloppy Churchill Downs track and he should be able to take advantage of today’s condition.
Race Four: 2:45 post – MC 50000 7 F 3YO&Up
5-7-8-9
I found it somewhat interesting that a Keeneland maiden claimer for 3YOs and up had three first time starters entered, one of them a 4YO. Trainer Wayne Catalano’s entry of #1 Hidden Talent and #1A Proud Nation both scratched leaving us with a bit of a truncated field. Jockey Jimmy Graham has been red hot lately and he chooses to stay with #5 Macho Jack, who ran a credibly in his last start on 9/19/19 against similar company. Macho Jack had some difficulty in his last race and has had a couple of good workouts since then. #8 The Dustman hasn’t done much in his first four races and is coming in today off of a seven-month layoff. I wouldn’t completely ignore him as his last six workouts have been quite good, especially the last four. None of these horses have had much success over a wet strip, so we do have a bit of a head scratcher here if we don’t embrace Macho Jack. #7 Josie Boy could move up on the off footing as the children of Violence have fared reasonably well in a limited sample size. Trainer McLean Robertson left Josie boy in the race the last time he washed off the sod, so he should be pretty versatile at this level.
Race Five: 3:18 post – MSW $71K 6 F 2YO
3-1-2-9
Today’s fifth race is a bit of a crapshoot as seven of the nine baby boys entered today are making their first appearance on the track. #2 Unthrottled has picked up a minor check in both of his career starts and looks to be capable of a win if he improves a little off of his 10/4/19 Keeneland race at these same conditions. Brad Cox’s #3 Wells Bayou is the flashiest FTS coming in with numerous good workouts, especially his 10/13/19 Keeneland bullet from the gate. Cox hits at 19% with his FTS, so he should be live. #1 Descent is bred to like the slop and Steve Asmussen is plenty capable of winning at first asking. The 10/19/19 gate workout here at Keeneland looks promising and Asmussen gets his regular jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard today. Asmussen also has #4 Matheson entered with Julien Leparoux in the irons. He fired a 5F bullet on 10/13/19 as well as a few other quality workouts, but Santana’s choice of the other makes me wonder if Matheson is the correct play. Trainer Kenny McPeek normally doesn’t win the first time out, but I can’t ignore the prep work of #9 My Man Flintstone as he arguably has the best workout lines of all of the unraced horses in this race and he has a pedigree to love the slop. Let the tote board be your guide.
Race Six: 3:51 post – MSW $71K 1 1/16 Mile 3YO&Up F&M
6-9-3-5
#3 Sugar Love is the 7/2 ML favorite, but I’ll be playing against her as she hasn’t gotten up in her first seven starts against similar company. She certainly figures in this spot, but I won’t play a favorite that looks like a bit of a chandelier. #9 Big Time Delivery didn’t quite deliver in her last start on 9/29/19 at Churchill Downs where she finished a distant second place against similar company. We certainly have reasons to expect improvement in her second route race and she keeps jockey Corey Lanerie in the irons. #6 Girlfriend Rocket looks to be the play in this race. We can draw a line through her 9/5/19 race at Kentucky Downs in her only career turf start. Her 7/18/19 Saratoga dirt route was plenty good enough to beat this group of fillies and mares, but that race is the only start where she picked up a check. Brad Cox’s #5 Quotation gave the field too much of a head start in her only start on 9/15/19 but it should be noted she never quit running. Her workouts speak of a filly plenty capable of winning against this field.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Allowance 75000n2x 1 1/8 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
7-8-2-3
Scratches reduced this race to just five runners after the overnight rains washed this allowance race to the main track. #7 With Dignity makes the most sense to on paper considering the majority of her career races have been on the dirt. Julien Leparoux stays aboard this 3YO filly for the fifth straight race and her pedigree suggests she could like an off track. #8 Cash Out has been an improving filly since returning to the track in May 2019. She has picked up two minor checks over the Keeneland grass in her career, but the race that should interest us most for today’s purposes is the Halloween 2018 allowance where she ran second over a sloppy track taken off the turf.I liked #2 Layla Noor the most when this race was carded for the turf, but she’s a downgrade for me now. Trainer Arnold Delacour is throwing the hood on her for the first time today after her decent performance in the Kentucky Downs stakes race on 9/12/19. She does have the look of a filly that never quite gets there, but the blinkers might do the trick and her recent workouts show that she will be tight for this race.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Allowance 73000n1x 7 F 3YO&Up
7-8-6-9
#7 Off the Record will likely be the chalk in this allowance race as he has fired a couple of decent races in his first two starts before a very troubled trip in his last at Belmont on 9/15/19. His three Keeneland October workouts have been nothing short of stellar for trainer Rodolphe Brissetand it will take quite a bit of running from another to get to him today. In addition, he graduated in the slop at first asking, which could be key today. #8 Holly Blame is plenty capable of being in the mix on a dry track, but his two wins in the slop, one here at Keeneland, make him very useful in this spot should the track hold a lot of water into the race card. I don’t know how good #6 Duplicator actually is, but his sixteen-length win at the Mountain on 10/2/19 should at least get him a mention. Keeneland doesn’t get a lot of Mountaineer shippers but getting Corey Lanerie in the bike after a last race romp interests me some especially if he takes to an off track.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – Fayette Stakes GII $200K 1 1/8 Mile 3YO&Up
8-2-5-7
I’m not going to lie; I was looking forward to playing #2 Mr. Freeze in the last feature race of the Keeneland fall meet, but the weather might drive me to another horse. Dale Romans looks to have Mr. Freeze headed in the right direction after his win in the GIII Ack Ack on 9/28/19 at Churchill Downs. He broke his maiden here at Keeneland, but I have some concerns over his pedigree and his ability to take to the slop. For me, if the track is somewhat dry, I will play him, but he might be a fade if the track is sloppy. All eyes will surely be on ML favorite #3 Tom’s d’Etat as his 8/31/19 appearance in the GI Woodward at Saratoga was a much better performance than the fourth-place result. I’m not too sure what to think of his off track pedigree as he has finished 2/4 ITM lifetime, but his sloppy track performance at Gulfstream was a clunker. I’m looking elsewhere. #5 Mocito Rojo is an absolute win machine finishing first in seventeen of his twenty-five lifetime races. Sure, he hasn’t faced this caliber of horses, but he has won two GIII races and he has won once on the off track. Today’s Fayette is easily his toughest competition, but I don’t think I can toss a horse with a five-race win streak.Todd Pletcher’s #8 Bal Harbour almost won the GI Woodward in his last race on 8/31/19 at 17/1. He has been knocking heads against better competition than most of the horses in this race, but he always seems to finish just a touch off the winner. I am most attracted to the fact that he has won here at Keeneland and that he is 3/3 ITM lifetime on an off track. If the strip turns into slop today, he will be my top pick and I will not toss him if it remains somewhat dry.
Race Ten: 6:03 post – MSW $71K 1 1/8 Mile Turf 2YO
13-11-entry-3
Scratches took my top pick #4 Cardiac Kid out of this race even though his pedigree suggests that he would have liked the slop. #11 Suggested pretty much ran the identical race as Cardiac Kid when they faced off on 9/14/19, so we need to respect him. The limited data on Violence suggests that the sloppy track won’t hinder him too much, if not help him. MTO #13 Liam’s Legend is a must use now that the race has moved to the main track. The Calumet Farm entry definitely move up on the wet main track as both #1 Went and #1A Handy have ridiculous Tomlinson ratings.