Trainers stat of the week:
Trainers that did well during the Del Mar summer meet are ice cold to begin the SA Meet. Baltas, Sadler, Koriner, Hess, and Mullins are a combined 0-34. “Time is the great equalizer”.
Jockey Stat of the week:
Flavien Prat is hitting the board at 72% to begin the meet.
Early Pick 5’s:
1,2,3,5/6,7,10,12/ 2,5,7/ 2,6/2 ($48)
2/1,3,6,7,8,10,12/ 2,5,7/2,5,6/ 2,3,7 ($95)
2,5/1,6,7,10,12/ 2,3,5,6,7/ 2,5,6,7/ 2,7 ($200)
Race 1: 6F DIRT MSW50k- 3YO+
Projection: 2-5-3-1 #2 Stretford End- Key Play
Front end speed has been favorable early in the meet, and we are sure to see #5 Silenced out there on the lead to kick off the card. But, I really do not like the drift out in the last race, and then mentioned in the workout notes of drifting out on the gallop out. This is too good of a group to overcome this if it happens again, and there are no signs in the works pointing to a horse that will be finishing straight. Top pick #2 Stretford End, coming off a 7 month layoff. He debuted a game 2nd to Improbable last September here at Santa Anita (race also had another Derby starter Gray Magician) before finishing 2nd twice and finally a poor 7th in the slop before taking a break. Has taken money in all races. Came back on 8/19 to the worktab with a bullet 47.3 drill followed by 4 consecutive strong stamina building works. Look out. Most likely pace scenario will have #2 sitting right off the #5, but there is a chance this becomes a pace battle at some point and with that, #3 One Nation would need to be considered. Track is not playing to deep closers, so would need the meltdown or him closer to the pace for him to have a good chance here. #1 Hudson River Park is an interesting debuting horse, and half to Stakes Winners Prospect Park, Proposed and Silent Sighs (combined 7 stakes wins). Each of these had much success at 3, and Sise can have them ready to win first out (15% $5.09 recently). Works have not been great, so proceed with caution.
I will not be playing the 0-17 Parsimony. I respect Reddam for refusing to drop him as he is a talented horse and had been ITM 10 of those tries, but this is not a soft group. Comes back to dirt and on 7 days rest, although he has done well in this situation, this is his 13th race of this year and no doubt that the journey has worn on him. Also, no thanks on Derby Champ. Major long shot in a MDCLM race in May and nothing in the works suggesting the improvement this one would need to fit.
Race 2: 5F TURF MSW50k- 2YO
Projection: 10-12-7-6 Spread Race
Crowded and talented group of 2YO’s here on grass will make for an interesting race. With a full field, need to start with eliminating horses who have poor works coming into this. For 2 YO’s and debuters these work out reports are a great resource. 5,11, and 13 have not had good looking works coming into this, so will dismiss. Next I will dismiss trainers with low % on first time starters, these trainers typically like to get a race or two in before the horse is well meant, here would be the #4 (Drysdale) and #9 (Eurton). Also eliminating #2, as I prefer the other McCarthy (#7 Smooth Like Strait/ 20-1) who has out worked the 2 in the AM and looks like a turfer (dam was a turf sprint winner (with a “4” Thorograph figure). Top pick of this bunch is #10 Moon Mischief who adds blinkers after his 2nd place debut to the hyped Baffert runner Mo Hawk. Moon Mischief has had buzzy workouts and Andy Harrington states that he move like a turfer. He is a half sib to Stakes Winning Turf horse, Nolde who could be Breeders Cup bound. #12 Rip City has the best Thorograph figure of those that have run with a “14”, and was recently gelded and adds blinkers. I do not like the outside post here on the 5F track, but if either of these changes prompt improvement, he will be tough to beat. I doubt we see the 10-1 ML for #6 Dean Martini who also has had buzzy works and adds blinkers where we should see some more front end speed. Horse has the pedigree to fit here and Miller is a strong with Turf Sprints. Value. Also hard to eliminate the 1,3,and 8 for those that want to go deep in this one.
Race 3: 6F DIRT CLM32k N1X 3YO Fillies
Projection: 7-5-2 Competitive Field
Top pick is #7 Shes All Woman, whose best efforts have been over this SA dirt course in 2019 and will be forwardly placed. Bob Hess Jr. doing well of late off the claim at 21% win rate. Horse has top Thorograph figure and matches top Beyer in this field, she just needs to get back to that form here on her preferred track. #5 Busy Paynter has been up against older and tougher of late and both Koriner and Ruben Fuentes are overdue. Should be the pace of the race to chase down and should be plenty fit. #2 Portal Creek is interesting here first off the claim for Sadler and Hronis. They have been patient since the 8/10 claim but have 6 consecutive works included the final one on 9/29 which was graded a “B” by National Turf.
Race 4: 5.5F TURF AOC40k N1X
Projection: 6-2-5 Pace Meltdown
The new 5.5F turf distance is a good idea while they figure out the downhill solutions, and I see the extra half furlong making a big difference in this one. Plenty of early speed signed up in this one, and I am going to take a stand against #11 Wildman Jack who figures to be one of the betting favorites in here, as I see a duel likely and without any races beyond 5F, becomes more risky than his price will offer, and has Bejarano aboard who is not known to be a strong gate jockey. Similar feelings on the #8 Tiger Dad, where I question if he can win from off the lead and is unlikely to have enough to be alone out there. Only race won beyond 5F was on the downhill against much less. So in the end, I am betting on a pace meltdown and stress upfront to set it up for #6 Musawaat. He runs in his 2nd race in the states where his debut at DMR was impacted by a slow start but came flying late to finish 1 ¼ lengths back from the winner in an OC40k event that also had Lil Milo and Wildman Jack right there at he wire (2nd and 3rd), add another ½ furlong and Musawaat a probable winner in that one. Also keep in mind this horse has run in back to back Godolphin Mile’s in the UAE. #2 Battle of Memphis goes from route to sprint. His West Coast debut in July was a good one, finishing second to a talented Ronald R, but then was off slow in last race and couldn’t handle the extended distance. Miyadi 22% Lifetime with +ROI on the route to sprint moves. #5 Lil Milo who will be forwardly placed, but has enough experience dueling and running longer to where I feel comfortable he could withstand the pressure and stay on game.
Race 5: 6.5 DIRT G3-LA WOMAN STKS $100k
Projection: 2*–7-3 SINGLE* #2 LADY NINJA
Top play is Lady Ninja, and will key this horse. Put a line through the last one where she hopped in the gate, and we have a gritty horse that’s 5:3-1-1 in 2019 and has shown gameness in the lane. Can layoff and go after Selcourt on the far turn. #6 Selcourt is 2 for 2 when starting from an outside post and should get the lead and/or position on Anonymity. These two could be the firtst o lock horns before Lady Ninja fires, but I have to respect Sadler’s ability to get a horse ready off a layoff and this ones pure speed here against a softer bunch than she’s taken on in her past few. #3 Streak of Luck is the wild card here, and if you can afford to include, do so as she has been working out fantastic on dirt which has given the connections confidence of debuting her on dirt in this Stakes race after 20 Turf starts and a quarter million in earnings. Negative notes on my play against below:
- #1- Erratic 3YO, head case, grinder, not a fan of #1 hole at this distance if horse is not going to be sent.
- #4-Anonymity: Wants lead, unlikely to get it. Mandella short price. Jock downgrade.
- #5 Show it and Moe it: Figs don’t fit. Winless in last 5 races. Bejarano.
Late Pick 5 Summary:
The Late Pick 5 features the SA Sprint Championship featuring a Heavyweight Battle between Omaha Beach in his comeback and Shancelot who looks to redeem himself off the bounce. Keep in mind, these two will be used heavily horizontally so you need to look at this race in this sequence as the opportunity to differentiate. Neither of those two horses are a lock, so be creative. For me, I will keep those two on the ticket but also will be playing Flagstaff, an improving horse whose numbers are the only ones close to the top two and great recent works to boot. Flagstaff also will be pressing the pace, I don’t see Shancelot getting things his own way here, which creates the potential for a pace meltdown and California Street to pick up the pieces late at a price.
The problem with potentially going deep in the SA Sprint Championship is the fact that the two turf races around it are deep in talent as well. Unless you take a stand with Toinette in the finale or Catapult in the City of Hope, I would recommend you spread in each. Luckily, I have a strong opinion in the 7th, a MSW for Cal Breds, where #10 Lightning Fast is a standout. This horse was bet down to 5/2 on debut for Spawr (9% $0.61) so there must be some clear talent here, and that is backed up with his works in the morning, earning B’s and a B+ on his recent string leading up to this race. Adds blinkers here and should be more involved early on. Violence babies continue to impress at 2YO, winning at a 22% clip. Hoping I get the 7/2 ML.
I also think we can stay pretty shallow in race 6 with the clear speed of #4 Foray. This horse has not lost when getting a clean break and taking the lead this year. #6 Overdue could be a presence late in this and I really like the last effort at DMR albeit over a weaker field. I can’t really trust anyone else in here as I am jumping off The Hunted train finally.
In race 8, top play is #6 Catapult. Isolate his firm turf races at 1M and you get a 5: 3-2-0 record, pretty impressive combined with the best works of this group of late and a promise of firm turf on Saturday. Hard to believe # 7River Boyne hasn’t won a race in 2019 after reeling off 6 in 2018 as a 3YO. Just has not taken a step forward, but has had some trip excuses. Keeping him in play as with a good trip, certainly fits here amongst the best. #2 Synchrony is the invader and is 5-1 with figs that rival the top horses in here. Not seeing us get that price, especially with invaders normally doing well against West Coast Turfers. If you can add some depth to the ticket, I also like 1,9,10 as price horses.
In the finale, Race 10, there is quite a bit of speed entered for this 1M Turf Stakes event. The obvious choice is the ML Favorite Toinette, who is a must use, but there are others well worthy of play. The Little Red Feather (owner) duo of Tooreen Dancer and Super Patriot would both benefit from a hot pace in here. #3 Tooreen Dancer you will notice is lightly raced with huge gaps between races, never a good sign of soundness, but I can tell you, this is a special horse to the LRF guys and has quite the story behind her (im sure you can google it) and she would not be running unless fit and ready. Super Patriot has been a new horse with Baltas and gets Abel back on for this one, if she takes another step forward his numbers are right there. Finally, I would also include Tiny Tina and Meal Ticket, these fillies can flat out close, are a bit behind on thier figures, but at her price creates value in a race that should set up for her.
Late Pick 5 Play: (will add/adjust based on early play of courses)
4,6/ 10 /1,2,6,7,9,10/ 2,3,4,5 / 3,4,7,8,9 ($120)