Welcome to another Thursday of racing here at Del Mar! As the old adage goes, we handicapped right but bet wrong last week. While the top pick only got the win in 1 of 7 races, we had a few tough beats and close photos, and the top choice did run second in 4 of the remaining 6 races. Additionally, the second selection ran first in 3 of 7 races in what was generally a chalky day. Despite some shorter fields, I think there is some value in today’s card if you pick your spots. Here we go again!
Last week: 14% (1/7 win, 5/7 ITM) $0.83 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $5.80 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 43% (12/28 win, 20/28 ITM) $2.56 ROI per $2 win bet ($56 wagered, $71.80 returned)
Race 1: 5 Furlongs (Turf) [F] Clm 40000
Picks: 1-3-6-5
The first race of the day opens with a $40,000 claiming race going 5 furlongs on the turf. #1 Swirling is the very tepid top choice in a race filled with horses whom are difficult to trust. This 5-year-old mare is very lightly raced, but she has been patiently brought along by Sadler for Hronis Racing and appears to finally be fit and healthy. She was a step slow last out to run 4th, but now gets a significant rider upgrade in the switch from the apprentice Velez to the Hall of Famer Victor Espinoza. She doesn’t have much early speed and draws the rail, both unfavorable in these turf sprints. I’d expect Victor to try to let the main speeds go and attempt to work out a trip from the inside. #3 G Q Covergirl has now failed as the favorite an impressive five times in a row, and I imagine today will make it six. She is the clear early speed in a field without much pace, but she had it all her own way last out and still faded badly in the stretch. The barn change hasn’t seemed to help, but she does catch a softer field today than her last outing. Extremely likely to hit the board, but tough to endorse on top at a short price. #6 South Boot Shirley has never run a race fast enough to win this, but she’s now making her second start as a 4-year-old and second start off a lengthy layoff. She has every right to continue improving. She’s done her best work on dirt so far, but she does have a bit of turf pedigree and has not been embarrassed in her turf tries to date. She gets a very favorable draw outside all the other speed and very well could be the one bearing down on the favorite as that one begins staggering down the stretch.
Race 2: 1 Mile [F] Mdn 61k
Picks: 1-4-5-3
Race 3 gives us a small field of 6 maidens going a mile on the main track. While many may choose to treat this as a two-horse race between the favorites, I wasn’t terribly impressed with either of them and elected to take a shot on a price. #1 Pink Scatillac was highlighted on the August 1 analysis when she ended up being a veterinary scratch, and I like her again now in what appears to be a softer field. Her debut was clearly designed to get her some experience, as this daughter of Scat Daddy was likely always headed for two turns. In her last outing, she was marooned in the far outside post and displayed excellent early speed while a bit too keen in blinkers, setting blazing fractions before beginning to fade and ultimately having to check and take up in the stretch. The hood comes off here, so I’d expect her to be able to ration that speed a bit better. Despite the turfy pedigree, there is reason to think this one may end up best on the dirt. She is a half sibling to It Tiz Well, a $1.1 million dollar earning mare who won the G1 Cotillion, G3 Delaware Oaks, G3 Honeybee Stakes, and placed in the G1 Alabama, G1 Santa Anita Oaks, and G2 Santa Ynez. The distance shouldn’t be a problem, and Cedillo and Glatt are teaming up at an incredulous 56% (5/9) so far this meet. #4 Unicorn enters this race having run second in all three of her career starts on turf, and now makes the switch to the main track. Leading rider Prat takes the mount and is hitting at 39% with Baltas the last 60 days. Should step forward second off the layoff, but will likely be a very short price for one who is trying a new surface and appears to lack that killer instinct. Keep an eye on #5 Carressa. While she hasn’t finished well in her two starts to date, she was a pace factor in both of them while receiving very wide and challenging trips before fading. Both of those races were live, with a number of next-out winners, and Espinoza gets up. #3 Crystal Lake is the other short priced contender. Despite running second and fourth in her last 2 starts, she beat a combined total of 4 horses and was never truly threatening the winner late. Gallagher has been cold this meet (0/18), and Pereira hasn’t fared significantly better (5%). Would expect Tiago to send early in hopes to steal it, but imagine he will have his hands full as there are sprinters stretching out who will also contest the pace.
Race 3: 6 Furlongs. [F] Clm 12500
Picks: 4-1-2-3
#4 Staythirstymyamigo ran a series of impressive races as a two-year-old before her form tailed off early this year. She was briefly freshened up this spring, and she finally showed flashes of that ability last out at Del Mar when a respectable third (later moved to 2nd via DQ) despite being bumped at the start and forced 5 wide for nearly the entire race. The winner that day got a much better trip, and if this filly runs that race back with a cleaner break, she could prove dangerous. #1 Be Lifted Up is likely the best horse in this race. She had traffic troubles last out and now takes a significant drop in class. The main knocks against this one are the post and the run style. The inner two posts, and specifically the rail, have been terrible in sprints at Del Mar this meet. Additionally, the track has played kindly towards speed horses, so this one run closer could find herself left with too much to do late. Still, this one does have the talent and ability to overcome the bias with the right setup. Tough to love anyone beyond the top 2, but #2 Bam Bams Lil River projects to be the early pacesetter, and this one has always done her best running on or near the lead. She never got near the lead after taking a bump at the break last out and chasing a loose leader from the disadvantaged inner draw. Must overcome the inside draw again today, but Knapp is strong second off the claim, and she likely figures to make the front; wouldn’t be too surprising to see this one take them all the way.
Race 4: 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000N3L
Picks: 5-4-3-1
#5 Toothless Wonder makes his return to his preferred surface today after two unsuccessful experiments on turf. He ran an excellent race 3 on May 24 to lose by less than a length to Oliver, who came back to run second in a restricted stakes race and first (by 5 lengths) in an optional claiming race. A repeat of that race should easily win today, as he takes the drop to the N3L claiming level for the first time. Possesses the early speed to make his own trip with a good draw and strong connections; the pick. #4 Trapper Peak graduated from the N2L ranks over the local track a month ago and was claimed by Steven Miyadi. Spotted in a route last time out, this 4-year-old gelding set an honest pace for 6 furlongs before fading late. Ruis thought highly enough of this horse to claim him right back out of that spot for an additional $4000, and she now returns him back to a sprint where he appears best. Needs a step forward here to compete with some of these, but could figure at a large price. #3 Leroy fits in with this group on raw numbers, but it is challenging to overlook his head scratching performance running last at Emerald Downs last out. Perhaps he didn’t take to that track. He goes back out for previous trainer Phil Oviedo with Talamo in the irons. Interesting, but demand value. #1 Union Rebel would be higher on this list if not for a poor inside draw. He showed some marked improvement last out when flashing early speed and dueling between horses. He was 2 lengths clear of the show horse of that race, who came back to win next out.
Race 5: 1 Mile (Turf) [S] Mdn 61k
Picks: 8-3-4-7
The early Pick 5 wraps up with a juvenile race going a mile on the turf for state bred maidens. None of the horses who have run so far have been terribly impressive, so I’ll lean on the first-time starter #8 Lemon King. This 2-year-old colt arguably has the best pedigree in this field for today’s distance and surface, being by prolific turf sire Kitten’s Joy out of a Lemon Drop Kid mare. Tim Yakteen is not typically known for his debut juvenile runners, but he has scored with 3 of 12 debut turf maidens and has a turf winner already this meet. Dominant turf rider Prat gets up, so one would imagine that 5-1 morning line may not hold. #3 One Fast Bro figures to attract support after running third to next-out Graduation Stakes winner Big Returns (via DQ). He attracted surprising support at the windows in his debut and, while never threatening the runaway winner, did not run poorly at all. Seems the switch to turf may help this one, as he has 2 half siblings who have won on the grass. Doesn’t need to improve much from his debut to win today. #4 Canyon Crest goes out for a surprisingly cold McCarthy barn (3% this meet). The sire, Karakontie, won his maiden at first asking and went on to win the Breeders Cup Mile and multiple Group 1 races in France at Longchamp. On pedigree alone, Canyon Crest should thrive on the turf at these middle distances. However, McCarthy typically gives his juveniles a race before having them fully cranked up, so this could just be one to watch for next time. #7 Descartes was thoroughly uninterested in his debut, but I always prefer Square Eddie offspring on the turf and have a feeling we have not seen the best of this one yet. Eddie Freeman is 29% when wheeling horses back on less than 11 days rest.
Race 6: 7 Furlongs [F] OC 62500n2x
Picks: 5-2-3-1
#5 Shoe It N Moe It finds herself in significantly softer company after battling in graded stakes her last 4 starts and running into the likes of Danuskas My Girl and Marleys Freedom. She is super versatile and very game, as evidenced by a few extremely gutsy wins against strong sprinter S Y Sky. Despite a short field of 5, there projects to be a strong pace in this race as the other 4 entrants have done their best running on or just off of the pace. That leaves this 4-year-old filly as our only closer with a favorable outside draw and significant class relief. Mild concerns after her last race was uncharacteristically poor, but perhaps a drop to the allowance race will allow her to rediscover her winning ways. #2 Mo See Cal is the close second choice. She set very quick fractions last out routing in a turf stakes race, only getting nailed late in a blanket finish at the wire. Back to dirt here, where she was narrowly beaten by Danuskas My Girl 3 back. 7 furlongs is often a tricky distance, and I prefer those horses with the extra stamina cutting back from a mile to those stretching out from 6 furlongs. She is the other entrant who may be able to sit just off the pace and make her move on the tiring leaders. #3 Qahira will undoubtedly take money due to the Baffert factor, but she has yet to run back to her 2-year-old top and has seen extended layoffs between each of her starts. It’s always dangerous to doubt Baffert in southern California, but would likely make this one prove it to me first.
Race 7: 5 Furlongs (Turf) [F][S] Mdn 61k
Picks: 5-8-3-2
We conclude the day with a 5-furlong turf sprint with California bred fillies three years old and upward. It tells you a lot about a race when an 0/28 maiden sits at 3/1 on the morning line. #5 Darling Demon has been turning some heads in the morning. Sired by US Ranger, who was a 5-time winner overseas on the turf, there is reason to believe this one could be live at a nice price. #8 Apache Pass is another who has been impressive in his morning workouts, as indicated by the aggressive 5/2 morning line for connections not known for hooking up with success in first time starters. Paddy O’Prado offspring win 11% in their first try on turf. Perhaps one to watch the tote and get a better look at in the post parade. #3 Concise Advice was an $85k yearling purchase from $3k stud fee sire Slew’s Tiznow, whose offspring are winning at a strong 22% in their turf debuts. This filly must have impressed someone at the sale, selling for over 5 times the sire’s typical average. Castle, a full brother to Concise Advice, has won 5 times from 12 starts, all on the turf, and ran third in his debut. Drayden gets off another to ride for Puype in this spot. #2 Miss Indefatigable has been brutally disappointing in her first two starts. If you argue that she may have needed an outing to excuse her debut, and that she had a poor break on a surface she doesn’t prefer last out, it’s conceivable to give her another chance. Blinkers come off here, which may help, and she certainly does have the turf pedigree by Acclimation and out of dam Miss ThirtyFour D who has produced 3 turf winners already. Still, Drayden ends up elsewhere, and would need a much better price than the 4-1 morning line to consider using.