Turfway Racing analysis- Saturday, Mar 16, 2019- By Tim Dougherty

Race 1- Maiden nickel claimers kick off the Saturday night festivities. 4- Already Gone was claimed two back. We’ll excuse the last two races and predict an effort close to the 12/22 race tonight. 1- Rehearsal Dinner went favored for $7,500 last time while drawn the same rail post and got ran down. Has a right to improve on the slight drop. 5- Safari Heart figures underneath with McKee in the irons.

Race 2- Time restricted nickel claimers begin the early pick four. 5- Miss Frank E has stopped in her last two. We’re hoping the switch to more patient jockey Angel Serpa will be change in tactics to rate her today. We’re looking for a price in a race where the favorites look suspect, and some inexperienced low win percentage apprentice jockeys are on live contenders, which creates more uncertainty. 1- Spearette has been well beaten in her last two. Stretching back out to the mile. We’ll hope she is a little closer to the pace and runs a race similar to her Valentine’s Day race when also drawn the rail that day. 6- Mileva should set the pace under the 10 pound apprentice Tormey. Backers of this favorite have to hope this inexperienced jock can show some experience in getting Mileva to relax up top early on in hopes of saving some energy for the stretch.

Race 3- Nickel claimers who haven’t won a race in year close out the early pick three. This group is a combined 2 for 67 over the Turfway poly. So naturally this race could produce a chaotic result, especially when your 6-5 ML favorite is ridden by a 5% ten pound apprentice and sent out by an 8% trainer. 1- Lil Miss Tioga was wide in her last two. Better draw today could have her in a more favorable winning position turning for home. Coupling of two for one helps too. 2- Syrisong makers her polytrack debut for trainer Steve Cahill. Not sure we get the 15-1ML as this is the logical new shooter to take versus some of these other entrants who tend to be proven losers over the polytrack. But anything above 8-1 at post time is value on this one. 5- Alittlebourbon gets a weight break and projects to set the pace. Certainly can win, but in the long run this is not the form we suggest taking a short price on if you’re trying to make money playing the races.

Race 4- Bilateral conditioned nickel claimers signed on here. 8- Dreaming of Frank caught trouble last out on the stretch out. Switch to a better jockey today and an outside post should suit this one’s liking today. We’ll take the 6-1 chance on top second time routing and now getting a veteran experienced rider. 5- Twenty Gauge stretches out to the mile from 6.5 furlongs and switches to the capable Julie Burke. 4- Kitten for Granny has been a beaten favorite in 3 of his last 4. Switch to Outz from Prescott in the saddle. Repeat of the speed figs earned two and three back should win this, but we’re weary of taking a short price again on one whose been beat as the favorite in recent races.

Race 5- $7,500 maiden claimers kick off the Saturday night late pick four. 7- Karas was just beat for third at this level last out behind a run away 11 length winner. Should move forward second start over the poly. 4- Harlinsdale plunges in class from special weight company to $7,500 claiming company. Showed little in this three starts. We’re hoping the drop and freshening turn this one’s form around. 2- Discreet Technique was second behind that run away winner. Should improve in the third career start for Orm and West.

Race 6- 6- Starving Artist ships up from the Fair Grounds as they start to wind down their meet and Churchill has opened for training. Makes the polytrack debut for the high win percentage Joe Sharp barn. Capable around two turns. Tactical speed. Reliable jockey. Lots to like. But there’s some others in here who can run a little too, so she’ll need to bring her A game to get the win. 5- Straitouttapopcorn stretches out in distance after easily winning two back and finishing a respectable second at this level last time. Slight freshening and bullet breeze on 3/9 help the case she’s coming into this race in good form. 3- Flawsome is a deep closer who could run them all down if the pace between the 2, 5, and 6 gets overly contested. Speed figure earned last time out is good enough to win this race.

Race 7- 6-Mine N Yours is a deep closer who will need a contested early pace in order to win. But we think that may happen. High win percentage jockey and trainer help the case. 1- Tommy C Me ships in the from the Fair Grounds, stretches out, and makes his polytrack debut. We’ll use this new shooter in our late pick four. 4- Crescent Warrior is a consistent sort at this level and should be in the mix again today under McKee.

Race 8- 4-Fearless Kitty was defeated at 3-5 at this level and distance last time. But we’ll give this consistent runner another look on top. Has the speed to be in good forward position. We’ll hope Ouzts can save some energy to hold em off in deep stretch. 6- One John was well placed last time and produced little kick. We’ve picked him on top in his last two, so we’ll chase him again to be a part of the exacta. 2- Jennysregalman is capable of hitting the board under Lagunes. 5- Hoosier Zip is a definite win candidate for high win percentage connections.

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