Welcome to the fourth Thursday of the Del Mar summer meet, where the turf meets the surf. We kept the hot streak going last week, once again getting our top pick home to win in 5 of the 7 races. That brings our top pick to have won an impressive 10 times out of 14 picks so far this meet, a 71% strike rate. Unfortunately, the ROI wasn’t quite as strong given some short fields due to scratches and a few strong favorites. Let’s see if we can manage to find a few prices today!
Last week: 71% (5/7 win, 5/7 ITM) $3.90 ROI per $2 win bet ($14 wagered, $26.60 returned)
Del Mar 2019: 71% (10/14 win, 11/14 ITM) $4.14 ROI per $2 win bet ($28 wagered, $60.00 returned)
Race 1: 6 Furlongs [F][S]Mdn 61k
Picks: 6-1-5-4
We begin with a puzzling field of 6 maidens, including a few promising first-time starters. #6 Remember to Smile makes her debut for Bonde and attracts the services of Mike Smith for the day. Mike Smith, a hall of fame jockey, doesn’t take as many mounts as he used to, and the ones he does take are usually live. That makes it incredibly interesting that his only mount of the day is in the first race of the card on a first-time starter. Works have been solid, and I love the stamina building 6f bullet on July 31. Smiling Tiger progeny win 15% at first asking, and an outside draw is always nice for young unraced horses who may often shy from getting squeezed up on the rail or inside of traffic. Smith should be able to keep her clear of issues and set her down turning for home if she is good enough.
#1 Miss Megan was impressive in her debut turf sprinting, posting a big speed figure at a price of 14-1 when second to repeat winner Harmless. Stretched out to a route and bet down to 5/2 in her second start, she pressed the pace for a half mile before fading badly. Not sure that routing was ever going to be her game, she moves back to sprints and switches to the dirt. Expect her to be sent hard from the rail and utilize her tactical speed to obtain good position up front. Significant rider upgrade as Drayden gets up, she will be the one to catch.
#5 Takethediamondlane is another interesting first-time starter. Kornier has been strong with debut horses lately, winning 19% of maiden special first-time starters in the last 60 days. Sold for 300k, there are clearly high expectations for this Bodemeister filly. Out of black type stakes winning dam North Freeway and half sibling to Take the One O One (third in the G1 Frontrunner Stakes at Santa Anita and multiple black type stakes winner), this strongly bred filly is a major contender but have to wonder if 2 turns on the grass will ultimately suit her better.
Race 2: 1 Mile (Turf) Clm 32000n2L
Picks: 7-4-3-2
#7 Tig Tog is a super consistent sort, with her last 5 races all within a few speed points of one another. While the 1 for 17 lifetime record does not instill confidence, she has been running admirably against others who simply outclass her. She finally takes the drop down to claiming company, and finds herself against a soft field in this N2L race. She was chasing a slow pace in her last and hung 4 wide for most of the race, so Drayden will have to work out a trip as he is drawn to the outside here. She owns a win over the local course, although this flat mile actually be a little short for her. If she can just repeat any of her previous 5 races, she should be able to win today.
#4 Playa Chica comes in as your morning line favorite. This Maryland-bred son of English Channel was running decent maiden races at east coast tracks before being acquired and shipped west by Baltas. She was never beating Trustini last out but this isn’t the strongest field either. Leading turf rider Prat stays on. One of the two main contenders, but would like to see her sit a bit nearer to the pace this time around.
The talent drop after the top 2 selections is noticeable, but I landed on #3 A Dime for Me as the third selection. The Del Mar turf course has been somewhat unusually kind to speed horses this meet, as 29% of turf routes have been won in gate to wire fashion this year, compared to the 3-year average of only 13%. A Dime for Me projects to control the early pace as she stretches out to a mile, a move Jerry Wallace has used before for massive payouts (2/12 with a $17.72 ROI). Could make the lead and get bold at a solid price.
#2 Moonshine Annie is another horse who hasn’t had much luck finding the winners circle, with 1 win and 7 minor awards in 18 tries. Does get some class relief here, and she does seem better going a route than sprinting. Her best race is capable of winning this, but a minor award seems more likely.
Race 3: 6 Furlongs Clm 16000
Picks: 5-1-4-2
#5 Best Two Minutes romped the last time he was dropped to or below this level and was promptly claimed by Saldana. A game second in a starter allowance, he then was dull in his last effort over the unique layout at Los Alamitos. Forgive that effort and you have a horse who is conveniently drawn outside the speed with a versatile running style and who is a perfect 4/4 on the board at Del Mar. One of the main players here.
#1 Fast Cotton gets a mulligan for his last race where he was antsy in the gate, hopped at the start, and broke at least 5 lengths back of the rest of the field. That is an impossibly difficult situation to recover from as a speed horse going 5f, but he ran on admirably and was even coming on strong at the end. His prior 2 starts were in routes going farther than his best, but his sprint races prior to that were all ultra-competitive. The rail draw does put him at a disadvantage, but he should be the true speed of the race as he is the only horse here to possess sub 22 second opening fraction capability. Look for him to gun it early and try to hang on late. Pop quiz: who is the leading rider on dirt through the first 3 weeks of the Del Mar meet? If you said Ruben Fuentes, you are correct. Fuentes takes the mount on #4 Monydontspenitself, fresh off the claim for a newly reinstated Hollendorfer. A bit of an inconsistent sort, he has been more feast or famine lately, either winning it all or missing the board entirely. The barn change could help him return to form, and he does have the tactical speed to make his own trip.
#2 Weast Hill deserves mentioning, as this 7-year-old veteran still has some fight left in him. Appeared to be rounding back into form late this spring prior to the layoff and trainer change. Should have his hands full trying to chase Fast Cotton up front, but if that one doesn’t break cleanly again Weast Hill does have the ability to steal this on the lead.
Race 4: 5 Furlongs (Turf) [S]Mdn 61k
Picks: 10(AE)-9-2-8
Keep a close eye on the scratches this race, as the also-eligible #10 Jetovator (AE) will be a huge player in this contest should he draw in. As the likely controlling pace, and possible lone speed, he will be sent for the lead under Prat’s guidance and may be extremely difficult to catch with this lackluster group of maidens. Should appreciate moving back to the turf, and sprinting was likely always his best distance.
Should there be no scratches, #9 Master Ryan figures logical in this spot. Ran a better than it looks third last out, on a day when there wasn’t much passing going on and the winner and second place finisher dueled for the lead around the track the entire race. Master Ryan was making a strong move in the stretch before being bumped and losing momentum, having to regather himself and still managed to be one of the few horses gaining ground on the leaders late. That June 15th race turned out to be live, as the second-place finisher Give Me the Lute came back to win a maiden special weight race at Del Mar 3 weeks ago by nearly 3 lengths.
#2 Tribals Last Reign is an intriguing first-time starter. By strong turf sire Tribal Rule, whose progeny fire at 16% first time turf, this 4-year-old has been working consistently in the AM and finds his debut absent any monsters. Could be a sneaky play as the horses with proven form don’t appear too intimidating.
#8 Nil Phet is a full brother to beloved 11-year-old warrior Soi Phet, who banked over a million dollars across 64 starts. Soi Phet did most of his damage on the main track, but did win twice on grass, and Tizbud offspring typically do well on turf. The debut was nothing special, but he now gets the ultimate equipment change as a first-time gelding and goes out for Gary Stute, who is 16% with a $6.43 ROI with maidens making their second start. Don’t overlook this one at a giant price.
Race 5: 5½ Furlongs Clm 20000
Picks: 4-2-9-6
Pop quiz part 2: who is the second leading rider on dirt so far at Del Mar? Another surprise – Abel Cedillo has been righting lights out this meet, with more dirt wins than the bigger name riders such as Smith, Prat, and Bejarano.
After struggling a bit to break his maiden in special weight company, #4 Aced won like a sure thing at even money in the slop when dropped to maiden claiming. He has since run 2 strong starter allowance races, and he comes back here as a first time gelding. Eurton has this one going the right way, and I love his pattern of improvement. Has worked out razor sharp since being gelded May 10, firing significantly faster morning works than before, and looks to be sitting on a big one.
#2 Vintage Hollywood goes out for the suddenly hot Garcia barn, who is 5-2-1-0 in the last 2 weeks. Rather devoid of any early speed, he is often a victim of pace dynamics and left with too much to do. However, with 3 headstrong speed horses entered here, he may finally find a pace setup that is to his favor. He’s been knocking on the door at this level and has done his best running here at Del Mar. #9 Outlaw is one of the three expected pacesetters to duel for the lead here. He gets an advantageous draw, immediately outside of the other 2 speeds, and really hasn’t run a poor race on dirt yet as a 4-year-old. Didn’t appear to care for the turf and now moves back to his preferred surface, as he really looked to be getting sharp before that last turf race. Drops down from open claiming to N2L company, an often-hidden class break. Needs to avoid burning up in a pace battle with Emtech and Sea’s Journey for his best chance.
#6 Emtech is your likely favorite, but I’m taking a stand against. Callaghan is an absurd 41% in claiming races the last 60 days, and his debut was very impressive, beating Manhattan Up who came back to place in a Grade 3 stakes. Any improvement on that effort probably beats this field. However, Kaleem Shah homebred horses do not often end up in cheap 25k N2L claiming races. There was a voided claim for Emtech after that maiden race, and then he was not seen again for 9 months. His return was a decent effort, pressing the pace before tiring, but the immediate drop to this low level claiming rank combined with the other signals is a red flag to me. At a price likely way shorter than the 5/2 ML, I will try to find better value in this spot.
Race 6: 11/16 Mile. (Turf) Alw 16000s
Picks: 7-5-3-2
#7 Builder has broken through strongly since switching to turf for the Tamayo barn. This gelding went from 12.5k N2L claiming races to G3 Stakes placed within 4 starts and is in career form right now. Draw a line through his last, where he stumbled and lost the jock while on dirt, and he looms a major threat for a barn that does very well with shippers (31% from 16 starters). Needs to find a way to save some ground from the far outside post but remains the one to beat.
#5 Zeke has run respectably on dirt in his last 3 effort at Churchill, but this son of Gio Ponti has always seemed more fit for the grass. A nightmare trip in the April 27th race left him with no chance, but he now moves to the red-hot Mullins barn who is 10-4-4-0 so far this meet and gets the leading turf rider of the meet in Prat. Running with extra incentive for the ship and win program, I expect him to be live and give a much better showing than his previous turf form may indicate.
#3 Zuzanna is the third pick in a very evenly matched field. This 5-year-old mare appears to be getting better and better with age, posting back to back career top figures in her last 2. Hess has been on a tear lately, hitting at 35% for the Del Mar meet so far. Needs to prove it against the boys here, but might just be this good. #2 Zestful projects to be the pacemaker in this event, and has a legitimate chance to wire this field if left alone. Son of Ghostzapper has been lights out, entering here on a 4-race winning streak, all in wire-to-wire fashion. However, in none of those events was Zestful really asked to run quick early, and often had things his own way up front, getting away with splits of 25/51 on a loose lead. There really isn’t a ton of pace here either, so a 5th consecutive victory seems quite possible, but faces some tougher foes here than what has been used to.
Race 7: 5 Furlongs. [F]MC 32000
Picks: 1-6-5-3
The nightcap race to close the card is a deep field of 10 maiden claiming two-year-old fillies. The uncoupled pairing for Victor Garcia appears to be the lukewarm top choices.
#1 Lady Sunset showed little in her debut, but the addition of blinkers and getting a race under her belt resulted in a greatly improved effort last out. She was never a threat to the runaway winner, but she was well clear of the third-place horse, including her stablemate checking in for fourth. Young horses often don’t know how to pass other horses yet, so it’s always advantageous to have a horse on the lead, especially at lower class levels.
#6 Destiny’s Journey makes her debut for Knapp, who isn’t exactly known for early success with 2-year olds. Sire Paynter won in his debut, including winning the G1 Haskell, and his offspring win with a respectable 11% of runners. Dam Destiny Calls won at first asking and banked $645k in her career. She has produced 5 winners from 5 starters so far, with 1 of 3 starters winning as a 2-year-old. Feel like this one might want two turns down the road, but she has shown signs of early pace in the mornings, which could go a long ways here.
#5 Kuda Huraa is by fifth ranking first crop sire Competitive Edge, winning with 33% of his debut runners so far (4/12). The connections have been cold lately, but note that Quinonez, while 0 for 14 at the meet, is 7/14 in the money this meet and a 14% jockey over the past 12 months with 2-year olds. One could argue he’s had a bad stretch of racing luck lately and perhaps a weak field of juvenile fillies with a hot freshmen sire could be the ticket to break the drought.
#3 Senora Power has not been within 10 lengths of the winner in each of her 2 starts but is still the second choice in this uninspiring field. Out of precocious sire Twirling Candy, perhaps the class drop and addition of strong dirt rider Fuentes can get her more involved early. Eligible to improve second off the layoff, but hard to love at a shorter price.