Fair Grounds Racing Analysis — Saturday, November 17, 2018, by Jeff O’Reilly

Race 1:

(10) Sand Pit Road has good tactical speed in a race that has a fair amount of pace. He should sit second flight and get the jump on the closers. Alan Klanfer is 35% off a layoff of 90+ days. That gives me confidence this horse will be ready to run off the bench.

(6) Paddy O’Lionel is the most likely favorite in here. He is taking a plunge in class and bettors will flock to him. He will be well back early and these are the types of favorites I try to beat on top. He runs his race everytime out but it has been too little too late in his past few races.

(1) Neon Sky is my longshot play in here. Draws the rail and will send out of there. If he can make an easy lead he could be tough to catch late. The speed figures are a cut below but I think he can certainly hit the board.

10-6-1

Race 2:

(1) Our Prince set a hot pace and faded to third on debut. He was well backed and should improve second time out.

(4) Boston Bind raced evenly first out. He comes in off a bit of a break but has been working well and should be right in the mix as they hit the wire.

(5) Star Fitznall is the morning line favorite and one who I will try and beat. He has just two works in the last 4 weeks. Even with a bullet on Nov. 3, He might be a little short in here.

1-4-5

Race 3:

(7) Western Reserve is a much classier horse than these in here. He won’t be a big price but should get a good forwardly placed trip.

(5) Ghurair had a bit of a tough trip last out and had to check in deep stretch. If he gets clear run he will be finishing late.

(2) Itsthebourbontalkn should be on the engine early. If the other speed grab and he gets the lead, he could be a tough horse to run down late.

7-5-2

 

Race 4:

(7) Make Me Smile made a big middle move last out and just faded late. The cutback to 5.5 furlongs should hit this horse right between the eyes.

(2) Calimambo has good early speed and will be in the thick of it early. Always works out a good trip and just a question of how much he will have to work early.

(1) Unrestricted has been working well for Albert Stall. He should be ready to run first out but I fear he may be overbet.

7-2-1

 

Race 5:

(1) Ian Glass has faced much better than he will see Saturday. His tactical speed will put him into the race early in one that lacks any pace really.

(7) Bold Proposition raced 4 wide much of his last start and should get a better trip Saturday. He should sit id pack and get first run on the closers.

(6) Oil Rubbed Bronze has been working well for Joe Sharp who is very good first out on the turf.

2-7-6

 

Race 6:

(1) Monte Man draws the rail and will have no choice but to send out of the gates. There isn’t a ton of early speed and he is in career form.

(2) Jockamo’s Song has been parked out wide in his last few races. He draws inside and should get a better trip and result Saturday.

(7) Win Lion Win comes out of the Grade 2 Woodford and was only beaten just over a length. He will be flying late but I suspect there isn’t enough pace to get him home.

1-2-7

 

Race 7:

(8) Miss Persistent looked very good on debut. Sat a good stalking trip and took over the lead in the stretch. I see the exact same scenario when I draw up this race.

(4) Raising the Ante comes in off a bit of a break but is the fastest horse in here If he runs back to his last he will be tough to beat.

(7) Alittlebitextra comes in having not raced since July. He has not worked in over 2 weeks and I fear, as a short price, he may need this race to get back into form.

8-4-7

 

Race 8:

(2) Chases Dixie Belle is my longshot play in here. He is the longest price on the board in here. There is a lot of speed signed on and I’m hoping this horse will pick up the pieces if this race falls apart.

(1) Champagne Moment has done nothing wrong in his first two lifetime starts. He has good speed and will fire out of the gates. There is other speed signed on in here that might cost him late.

(3) Saint’s Girl Is taking a class drop in here. Didn’t have much of an excuse last out and is off a break. He is a favorite I will gladly try and beat.

2-1-3

 

Race 9:

(6) Penny Coin Toss appears to tower over this field. She should get a good stalking trip and take over at the top of the lane. She will be a short price but one I would have confidence in singling in multirace bets.

(8) Cherry Twist has good early speed in a race devoid of it. She should be on the lead early and tough to catch late if they let her get away easy.

(1) Sweet Madalyna has run better than it looks on paper. Has faced sloppy tracks and poor trips in her last few. If she gets a clean trip she could be dangerous at a big price.

6-8-1

 

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