Race 1
5 – Rogue Nation – Linda Rice hits at 33% off the claim and sends out a very sharp horse who looks like he could be alone on the lead. Loves this distance and the track. Will be short price but a possible single to start the early pick 5.
6 – Orpheus – ran well in his last try at this level and could be forwardly-placed in a field lacking speed. The major jockey upgrade to Franco is a sign that somebody sees something..
2 – Borsa Vento – exits a tough race and should get some pace relief here. Doesn’t usually grab the lead early, but he’ll need to be close to have a chance I think. 4 for 11 ITM at Aqueduct, 6 for 11 ITM at today’s distance.
Race 2
1 – Claire’s Kitty – ran well last-out and picks up Franco today while drawing inside. Should be able to get near the lead with a good break and there won’t be much speed in here to worry about.
3 – Midnight Sky – Ran second at a huge price two weeks back, banking we’re on an upward trend heading into today.
5 – Dazzling Speed – we’ll be looking for just that in a relatively weak field, but will keep her third as the victory last month came over a sloppy surface.
Race 3
7 – Turbulence – making his second career start a cool nine months after the debut, but the works have been sharp and he’ll get lasix for the first time today.
2 – Invest – Linda Rice with a second-time maiden starter with Franco in the irons is a pretty dangerous combo and I won’t be shocked at all if this one goes off even money and wins by a pole; that said, I like the potential price on my top choice and I’ll go with mystery over predictability on this one.
1 – Judge Stanton – kicked on well in the second try after being pinched at the break, draws inside today and hopes for more improvement in start #3.
Race 4
4 – Lettercarrierhenry – certainly tossing the last race, as the stumble at the break compromised all chances. Both Fingerlakes starts came over sloppy tracks, and though that gives me pause on a fast track today he does sport the field-best figure and he gets back to his likely-preferred distance.
9 – Greg King Of Cool – career is off to a brutal start, but the drop in class off a huge layoff seems to work for this barn, and there have been some promising works in the interim.
1 – Evan – barn does well with first-timers going short, and the works have been consistent leading in. Worry about the rail for a debut, so I’ll keep underneath.
Race 5
4 – Big Thicket – the barn is 2 for 5 first-off the claim, and the horse is 3 for 9 at today’s distance. Should get a nice price, going to take a swing here.
7 – Too Fast to Pass – outside draw but has all the speed in a field that’s lacking. If he can clear, he’ll be tough to catch.
3 – Peter’s Project – 0 for 4 locally but catches some much-needed class relief here.
Race 6
7 – Ginger and Jingle – The barn has done well with its limited number of first-timers, and the works are consistent. Franco aboard gives me obvious confidence.
9 – Straphanger – well, here we are again… Linda Rice, maiden second-time starter with a few big works since the debut.
2 – Central Time – another barn that has done well with first-timers in limited experience.. two nice works recently indicate that this one could be ready to fire.
Race 7
7-2-9
Race 8 – The Cicada – $100k
8 – Miss Imperial – one of three in this field that Franco has ridden to victory, and most importantly the one he chooses to ride today. Servis is still winning at an astonishing rate, and you can pick almost any race type to back that up. There is a ton of speed to her inside, and the outside draw should set up perfectly for a stalk and pounce.
4 – Gracetown – might not be on the same level as my top choice, but she should get a similar setup and has shown a stalking ability in her last two.
2 – Stonesintheroad – will be firing from the opening bell and will have company in doing so, but she appears to have the back-class and the stamina to try and take them wire to wire. Look for her to carry them into the stretch on top.
Race 9
11-10-3
2018-2019 Aqueduct Top Selections (as of 3/9/19)
- Week 1 (10/20, Belmont) – 11: 5-2-1, 87.7% ROI ($22 wagered, $41.30 returned)
- Week 2 (11/3) – 10: 2-3-1, -47% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.60 returned)
- Week 3 (11/10) – 8: 1-3-1, -54% ROI ($16 wagered, $7.40 returned)
- Week 4 (11/17) – 7: 1-1-1, -73.5% ROI ($14 wagered, $3.70 returned)
- Week 5 (11/24) – 9: 3-1-0, 63.8 % ROI ($18 wagered, $29.50 returned)
- Week 6 (12/1) – 10: 2-1-3, -60.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $7.90 returned)
- Week 7 (12/8) – 9: 3-2-2, -32.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $12.20 returned)
- Week 8 (12/15) – 9: 2-2-0, 37.7% ROI ($18 wagered, $24.80 returned)
- Week 9 (12/22) – 9: 0-2-1, -100% ROI ($18 wagered, zero returned)
- Week 10 (12/29) – 9: 3-1-1, 12.2% ROI ($18 wagered, $20.20 returned)
- Week 11 (1/5) – 8: 2-1-0, -8% ROI ($16 wagered, $14.70 returned)
- Week 12 (1/26) – 10: 2-0-0, 3.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $20.70 returned)
- Week 13 (2/2) – 10: 2-4-0, -48.5% ROI ($20 wagered, $10.30 returned)
- Week 14 (2/9) – 9: 2-1-1, -20% ROI ($18 wagered, $14.40 returned)
- Week 15 (2/16) – 9: 1-2-0, -36.6% ROI ($18 wagered, $11.40 returned)
- Week 16 (2/23) – 9: 1-1-1, -65% ROI ($18 wagered, $6.30 returned)
- Week 17 (3/2) – 8: 2-2-2, -13.8% ROI ($16 wagered, $13.80 returned)
- Week 18 (3/9) – 11: 2-3-2, -30.5% ($22 wagered, $15.30 returned)
- Total: 165: 37-32-17, -19.8% ROI ($330 wagered, $264.50 returned)
- Win Rate = 22.4%
- ITM Rate = 52.1%