Del Mar Race 4: The G3 Torrey Pines, 3yo Fillies, 1 Mile:
This is the last opportunity for 3 year old fillies to compete with their generation on dirt in Southern California until the La Brea in December. This race comes up a little quick for the Kentucky Oaks this year, but perhaps the winner might consider coming East for the Black Eyed Susan in October, which will be run on the same card this year as the Preakness.
1. Paige Anne: She’s one of two from the Simon Callaghan barn. She’s been off since May when she was third in the California Oaks at Golden Gate on synthetic. Her two best races to date have come on the Tapeta. She was beaten double digits in her only other try in graded stakes company. I’m looking elsewhere today.
2. Secret Keeper: She’s one of three fillies that will be stretching out to two turns for the first time. She’s won her first two races with ease, beating a few of these last out. She’s by Into Mischief out of a Candy Ride mare, so she should have no problem with the stretch out. Plus she has inside position on her main rival. I’ll give her the slight edge as I think she’ll offer a bit more value than morning line favorite, Harvest Moon.
3. Harvest Moon: She is undefeated in her two dirt starts, winning both races at today’s flat mile distance. She’s been comfortable sitting off the pace, which bodes well for her today as some of the others stretching out look like they’d be better sprinting. She is the deserving favorite and looks very live in this spot.
4. Sheza Girly Girl: She’s a modestly bred filly whose had moderate success in Northern California. She was moved to the Steve Knapp barn and she fired a big effort in her first start locally. This is a big step up, but I could see her putting forth a solid effort and spicing up the trifecta.
5. Aurelia Garland: She ships West after a decent try in the Iowa Oaks last out. She’s hit to board in all three starts this year, but has failed to defeat lesser foes each time. Rispoli has been riding lights out, but I prefer others.
6. Provocation: She’s the first of two from the Baffert barn, and I’m trying to beat both. She debuted like a good thing but regressed in her first start on this oval. She now stretches out for the first time with other speed to her inside and outside.
7. Merneith: The other Baffert trainee has the most experience in the field. She’s tried two turns twice, unsuccessfully, albeit, her most recent try was on grass. Her best race to date was sprinting in the slop at Oaklawn. It’s unlikely she’ll be fair market value coming, knowing her connections.
My Picks: 2-3-4
Saratoga 8/22/2020, The Grade 1 Fourstardave, 1 Mile, Turf
Since earning Grade 1 status, this race has attracted top notch fields and has produced the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Mile in three of the last four years. The top three finishers of last years Breeders’ Cup and last years Fourstardave are back this year. What makes this race a true puzzle this year is that every major contender is coming off of a race that is subpar by their standards.
1. Raging Bull: He’s the first of a quartet sent out by Chad Brown. I thought he was going to be able to duplicate his monster performance in the Shoemaker when he was favored in the Makers Mark Mile last out, but his late kick wasn’t nearly as powerful. Perhaps has doesn’t love the course at Keeneland, which might not bode well for the Breeders’ Cup. However, he’s run very well here in three tries, including a fast closing second last year in this race. I’m a bit concerned that he’s not going to get a fast pace to close into, which has been the key in his two fastest races.
2. Casa Creed: His three year old campaign ended with a win in the Hall of Fame stakes on this course at this distance. His speed figures have improved in his first two starts as a four year old, but he was beaten by 6 other horses in the Wise Dan last out, and this is a far deeper field.
3. Emmaus: I’ve been solidly against him in his last two starts, and his definitely outran his odds both times. He should sit a perfect trip with his style and his post. He’ll need to be able to run a career top to hit the board with these today.
4. Got Stormy: Just like her sire did nine years earlier, she won this race and did so with a monster performance last year. She went on to run second in the Woodbine Mile and Breeders’ Cup against the boys, and then beat fillies in the Grade 1 Matriarch to close out her four year old season. This year has been a different story though, not earning a triple digit Beyer in any of her four starts this year, hitting the board only once. We know she loves the course and she should get a decent trip on or near the lead. This feels like a now or never race for her.
5. Halladay: He looked like he was on the verge of a breakout season after two big time efforts at Gulfstream this spring, including a win in the Sunshine Forever, which drew a graded stakes caliber field. I was disappointed with his effort last time, not making the front with a slow pace, and then being out paced late by horses that aren’t as good as these. He may benefit from a change in tactics today.
6. Uni: Last years Breeders’ Cup winner was flat in her comeback at Belmont in the Just A Game. She was also a little dull last year when she returned from the layoff at Belmont. Last year, she returned and fired a big effort to be third in this race, despite a furious closing finish. I think she’s a definite candidate to rebound today and the most likely winner.
7. Valid Point: In my opinion, he’s the most interesting horse in the race today. Last year, he won the Grade 1 Secretariat in only his third start, starting his career 3-3. He finished his campaign in the Shadwell at Keeneland where he got buried on the rail in a full field and never got to run. He made his four year old debut against a decent field in the Poker, and ended up with a similar, no room, rail trip. He gets a more outward post this afternoon and has definitely been much more explosive when he is not covered up on the inside. He might not be as good as some of these yet, but he hasn’t really had the opportunity to run in both races against elders. Chad Brown brings him here, knowing he’s sending out three other very good horses. I think he can work out a better trip today and offer decent value underneath.
8. Without Parole: He’s made four starts in North America for Chad Brown and has shown he can be very competitive. However, he seems to come up short when it comes to finishing a race, as he’s never been better than third in America, despite taking a lot of play at the windows. I’m not a big fan.
9. Chewing Gum: He was inexplicably bet down to the 2-1 favorite in the Troy, sprinting here three weeks ago. He never really got going and could only muster fourth against a weaker field. The added distance and massive class hike seem like a stretch.
My Picks: 6-7-1