Happy Preakness Day! Although I will be heavily involved at Pimlico, I will also be focused on this solid card at Santa Anita. Below is my analysis of the Early Pick 5 with some key plays. Best of luck to all today, and remember, on long days like this, money management is key. Be patient, take notes, and get your money in when the value is right.
Early Pick 5: 5,6,7/4,8/ 3/ 1,4,7,8/ 2,7,8,9,11,13 ($72)
Best Win/Show Bet: #3 Point Hope (race 3)
Show Bet: #2 Jungle Warfare ($100) (see write up)
Race 1: (6-5-7)
Taking a shot at a price to lead off the day as #6 Soul Beam has an interesting history. Was claimed at Churchill last June immediately after being dropped from allowance ranks where he was running longer (1 3/8) as a 3 YO. Following the claim, Battleborn Racing moves him back up to the Allowance level at Del Mar where he broke slow but still finished strong within 2 1.4 lengths of a tough group. Was then given time off and returned in April as a 4 YO in a tough Allowance race at Santa Anita where again he broke slow and was never put in the race. Since he got little out of that race, connections put him right back in the next week where he got a good trip until steadying late when he was right in the mix. Has gotten a month with 2 fitness works since and should move forward today, especially with Prat now on board, and based on Thorograph figs, make him a fit here at 12-1+. Underneath, I like the other 4YO #5 Fast as Cass who finished a half length ahead of Soul Beam in the April race mentioned above, but will be half the odds. Also, #7 Combat Zone for Hronis and Sadler could look to wire the field here with Pedroza on board.
Race 2: (4-8—-) This is a bad bunch and #4 Meso for the Hronis/Sadler/Pedroza connections really stands out here. Dam a SW on dirt, and also a sib with a 3 TG figure on dirt as a sprinter. Gets blinkers and Pedroza here, so intention will be to be on or near the lead in what looks like a paceless field. This will be the first time this 3YO gets a fast track, as she debuted in the slop and then was tried on turf. Like what Cross Traffic babies are doing in dirt routes as well. Any improvement on Thorograph numbers and she wins. Only threat would be #8 Thanks, a speed and fade type thus far, but drops from 30k level and retains Roman. If he gets loose on the lead, has a better chance against this bunch. Only two I see that can be used here.
Race 3: These 5F Turf Sprints have been interesting since the removal of the downhill races. We have seen a few blown turns on this course. This race appears to be a pace throwdown between Kentan Road and GQ Cover girl, both with 120+ TImeform Early pace numbers. With that, I will be focusing in on a horse who can finish and one who should improve in his 2nd US start with #3 Point Hope. Drayden gets the call, and the horse has the best recent time form figure with pace that should set hm up well. DVD and Ellis when teaming up are 27% and over $6 ROI. 2nd off the layoff, expecting improvement for this 4YO, could be a breakout race. Single.
Race 4: (7,8,1,4)
Spread race here for me, as I see True Validity getting a lot of the action here which should create some value on others. Top pick is #7 Hot on the Trail who makes an interesting turf to dirt move as her figs were improving on turf for this Unusual Heat filly, but I like the dirt workouts of late. Blinkers On, which has not been a profitable move for Glatt, but could improve focus. #8 True Validity is the one to beat, top figs and consistent figs, and I like Lerner’s aggressive style in placing him in a claiming spot here fist off the claim. To me, that’s confidence he feels this horse will hit the board, generate some money and if claimed, he is in the green. Also using #1 Smiling Rose who was impressive in debut at the Maiden Claiming rank with a 6 length win, but speed figs came back slow. Did it easy off the pace at a slow 1:13 time, would be careful fading based on fig numbers alone as the effort looked better. Defensivly also playing #4 Interesting times, who similar to #1, won easy in debut with slow figs coming back. Should be on or near the lead, and unlike Queen of the Track, was able to have speed carry to win last out and is more likely to improve in 2nd start.
Race 5: (11-8-2-13-9)
First and foremost, I will begin by talking about one of my fav plays to make and one I have been riding the last 3 times he has raced. Bet Jungle Warfare to show in a big way. Has hit the board 17 of 19 times in his career, unreal horse who always shows up and you are getting 6-1 on the win end. Assuming Show will play 2-1 or better, if you had a horse win 17 of 19 races, would you get 2-1 to win at a similar level, no way. There is some good speed in this race and I love how it is shaping up for #11 Hardboot whose Throrograph figure is easily best last out and will be making 2nd start of he layoff. #8 Major Cabbie has legitimate trouble early last out and finished very well, like how this race shapes up for him as well as Kent can sit and pounce with this one. Will also play #13 Lifeline, who was very impressive in his initial races and has been on the shelf since May of last year. May need one, but Sise’s numbers off the layoff are strong enough to play here as any return to old figs gives him a big shot at a price. Defensively, will use #2 Jungle Warfare and #9 Street Fighter.