Well the 2019 Pacific Classic did not pan out like I thought it would and if you follow me on twitter and or read my prerace analysis of the Pacific Classic you would know that. Instead of just saying that I was dead wrong though I am going keep my original analysis of the top 4 finishers below and I am going to go over what happened during the race that landed these horses in the top 4.
Post 6 – Higher Power: Winner
In my opinion the only positive on Higher Power is that Flavien Prat is in the irons. Nothing about him makes me think that he is worth using on your tickets, especially at 8-1 morning line. He finished 2nd last time out against much weaker here at Del Mar in an ungraded stake and 2 back he finished a well beaten 5th to Vino Rosso in the G1 Santa Anita Gold Cup. I am tossing this one on my tickets and like For the Top, Higher Power is toss for the win and I would only use if you plan on using most or all underneath on exotic wagers.
Well we will start with the winner Higher Power who ran away and hid from the rest of this field. From my analysis above I didn’t give this horse much of a chance and moving forward I still am unsure on how good he is. I was skeptical of this Pacific Classic field before the race and I’m not ready to jump on the wagon after this win. Pratt though was a huge difference maker in the irons for Higher Power though as he kept him stalking pace setter Quip through the first ¾ of a mile. The race became his when Quip threw in the anchor before the 1 mile mark and Pratt and Higher Power inherited the lead. Speed is the most dangerous weapon in horse racing and anytime a horse can take the lead without effort the result usually ends in a win and that is what happened today. Pratt and Higher Power opened up a 2-length lead after Quip dropped anchor and that was it. Depending on the spot Higher Power is more than likely a must use next time out on Multi Race tickets, but I still would be a bit hesitant of using anyone from this race as a single seeing how it played out.
Post 10 – Draft Pick: Second
Draft Pick I think is in over his head today and while he has never finished worse than 4th in his career I think today is the day he finally does. Yes, I know he should improve 2nd off the layoff here but there are too many others that have run better against tougher in their careers for me to use Draft Pick as a win contender. Like Higher Power and For the Top I think Draft Pick is a toss for the win and I would only use if you plan on using most or all underneath on exotic wagers.
Last but not least Draft Pick who ran a huge 2nd here like the winner Higher Power was not on my tickets for the Pacific Classic. I even said it above that he should improve 2nd off the layoff and he did just that and still has never finished worse than 4th in his career. Looks like the Breeders Cup Classic is the goal with this one as well as I expect he will have 1 more prep, most likely in the Awesome Again before the Classic which would be his 4th start of his 4-year-old year. Another horse to keep an eye on as we head into fall as if he can keep improving could be a factor later in a race like the Awesome Again.
Post 9 – Mongolian Groom: Third
At 20-1 morning line I think Mongolian Groom is the bomb that you want to use on your tickets, especially if you are an Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta player. Last time out in the G2 San Diego Handicap he was closing in on Catalina Cruiser who is thought to be one of the top male dirt horses and today is adding extra distance. If he gets a pace set up like he did in the San Diego Handicap or the Santa Anita Handicap I think he will finish in the money at a price. He will end up as my 4th choice here but I would not be shocked if he finished better than that and I fully expect him to outrun his 20-1 morning line odds.
About the only thing I did get right was that Mongolian Groom would outrun his morning line odds of 20-1. Going off at 18-1 Mongolian Groom who typically comes from a bit farther back was sitting less than 3 lengths back the entire way. He just got nipped for 2nd by Draft Pick but still ran a huge 3rd. Is he a horse who is ever going to win a G1, probably not but he is one that seems to always go off at a price and finds his way onto the board. I am expecting the G1 Awesome Again to be next for Mongolian Groom if he came out of the Pacific Classic alright and would use him on your tickets next time out.
Post 7 – Tenfold: Fourth
“Big Money” Mike Smith is in the irons today on Tenfold and he is the definition of a boom or bust horse. In 4 races as a 4-year-old he won the G3 Pimlico Special at this 1-1/4th distance but has failed to be a threat in his other 3 races. I have always been a fan of Tenfold and I would be much more willing to take 8-1 on him than 8-1 on Higher Power but he is a high-risk high reward horse. My ultimatum on Tenfold is that if you’re playing a deep multi race ticket I would have him on it, especially with Mike Smith in the irons. Although I am a fan of Tenfold I think he is a class below a G1 caliber horse. He will be my saver on deep multi race tickets but that is it.
Tenfold may be a horse you want to keep an eye on coming out of this race if they do not run him in a G1. Yes I know people have been saying that about Tenfold since he nearly upset Justify in the Preakness but if you watch this race back Tenfold is the only horse really made any type of move that wasn’t on the pace. Higher Power, Draft Pick, and Mongolian Groom were all running 2nd, 3rd, and 4th all within 3 lengths of pace setter Quip while Mike Smith had Tenfold about 8-10 lengths off the pace early and only was in front of deep closer Campaign ½ way through the race who ended up finishing 5th behind Tenfold. Mike Smith made a move with Tenfold on the far turn to get within about 4 lengths of Higher Power but that was his run as he never got any closer. He is a cut below the top 3 finishers in my opinion and I will keep an eye out for his next race.
Final Thoughts:
Overall I would not put too much stock into the Pacific Classic, especially when looking a head for the Breeders Cup Classic. Yes I know the 107 Beyer is going to stand out to everyone for Higher Power but if you know me you know I don’t put too much stock in Beyer figs. My reasoning for this is because I think the top 3 finishers got an ideal set up. Taking nothing away from any of the top 3 finishers as they all ran huge, but in my opinion, Quip throwing in the anchor very early was a huge curve ball in this race. If you watch the race back, Higher Power, Draft Pick, and Mongolian Groom were all the next 3 horses behind Quip early and their order basically went unchanged after Quip faded (Draft Pick made up about a ½ length to beat Mongolian Groom for 2nd on the wire and Higher Power opened up on these two). Again not saying the best horse didn’t win as Higher Power was for sure the best horse this past Saturday, but looking into the future I am a bit skeptical of the top 3 runners based on how the 2019 Pacific Classic unfolded.