Santa Anita Park Racing Analysis — Friday, October 9, 2020, by Nick Seevers

Not a lot of great races to look at here, though for Santa Anita they drew pretty good field sizes. I have a few prices I’m taking shots with today. I love the Golden Hour Pick 4 and Double as a wager, 15% take out, $1 minimum on the Pick 4, $5 on the double can provide some good payouts,  so will have a ticket there. I prefer horizontal plays so my early and late Pick 4&5 will be at the end.

Race 1

1 mile Turf Maiden Cal Bred 3+

  1. 6 Carmelita’s Man – Not saying anything that isn’t pretty obvious here. Ran 2nd last time ahead of the 8/5 favorite in this race. Nothing particularly interesting with the barn move, Hernzndez riding through is a positive. 
  2. 5 LuvLuv- Ran a head behind my top choice in his last race, This one shouldn’t run too far off a fairly slow pace, a good spot to be on this Santa Anita turf. 
  3. 4 With Due Casue – Dropping from open company to Cal Bred, sprint to route, Baze up to ride, all are good reasons to have a little play here. If I get anywhere near the morning line, a win contender for sure.

Race 2

1 mile 3+ Claiming $12,500

  1. 6 Blame It On Kitty – This one has been running against a little better, clearly didn’t like longer last out. This drop down to $12k ranks gives this one a real shot. Obviously don’t love the price, but 2nd choice can really spice up the horizontals.
  2. 1 Impression – Won last 2, moved up both times, on the rail should be the speed, this one checks all the boxes. I won’t play any tickets without this one on it. 
  3. 3 Vodka Twist – Won versus $16k at Del Mar and $20k at Santa Anita at a mile earlier this year. I think he’s overmatched here, but wouldn’t be a huge shock to see this one take the money.

Race 3

6 Furlongs Fillies and Mares 3+ Claiming $10k

  1. 6 Just Grace – This one won 2 races at Churchill Downs earlier this year, moved to Thistledown, then to Del Mar at this level. Stretch to 6 furlongs should help this one, a slower pace should put her near the lead, I really like this one at the morning line.
  2. 3 Give Me a Hint – Ran 3rd last out going 5 ½ at Del Mar. Have to go back to her 2 year old campaign (2018) to find a win, but beat Mucho Unusual in a stakes race. Not much success since, but dropping all the way down to $10k I can see this one find its level.
  3. 1 Bounty of Gold – Last out won gate to wire at 5 ½ at Del Mar, moving down in class to $10k should do this one good, because the stretch out may not help, this one really prefers 5 ½ and the dirt, so don’t want this one to beat me, but not playing it heavily.

Race 4

1 mile 2 year old fillies Cal Bred Maiden

2 year old state bred is always a mystery. I’m fading the favorite here and going wide, moving from dirt to turf and sprint to route, going to try to beat her.

  1. 6 After Midnight – Going from sprint to route now in her 2nd race, after running 2nd last out seems to set this one up for a real shot today.
  2. 4 Miss Ever Ready – Ran in this condition last time out at Del Mar, caught a fast pace last time that she couldn’t close into. Should be closer to the front this time and a real shot at winning here.
  3. No reason to go short here, this race should be wide open

Race 5 

6 furlong 3+ Cal Bred Allowance

  1. 4 Quick Finish – This one has every right here. Has run 2nd the last 3 races. Should get a perfect front end trip and able to outkick to the finish line here.
  2. 6 Fratelli – Has been claimed the last 2 races, moved up the last two races and moving up again to allowance. Might be too big of a step up here, but every right in this race.
  3. 5 Handsome Cat – Ran 2nd to my top choice last out. Has been running at this level and not far off, I like him to pick up the pieces here.

Race 6

1 ⅛ mile Turf 3+ Maiden 

  1. 9 Comradery –  Ran a nice 2nd at a similar level last out at Del Mar. Adding the ⅛ shouldn’t be an issue after running a good 3rd 2 back at 1 1/16. Really seems like the most likely winner and a likely single for me.. 
  2. 10  A.P. Pharoah – This one is a  must use for me if he draws in. American Pharoah has been great sire on the turf, this one has been running on the synthetic and the dirt, the move to the turf should make this one live. 
  3. 6 Frassard – Ran 3rd to my top choice last out. Has been a good runner throughout his career, but 12 starts without a win a clear underneath play for me.

Race 7 

6 Furlongs 3 year old Claiming $40k

  1. 8 Howbeit – Dropping from Allowance last out, ran in stakes races earlier this year. The drop to claiming seems right to me here. If we get anywhere near 5/1 a big win bet for me.  
  2. 1 Hidden Promises – Won last out at this level going 6 ½ at Del Mar. Caught a slower pace last out and was still able to close into it. Getting the rail and what should be an honest pace, a must use for me. 
  3. 2 Self Taught – Was claimed at Churchill back in June, shipped into Del Mar (I’m assuming trying to hit the ship and win bonus) was unable to win but had two nice races at Del Mar. I love the move from a mile to 6 furlongs, will be on plenty if not all of my horizontals.

Race 8 

1 ⅛ mile Turf 3+ Allowance

Start of the Golden Hour Pick 4 ($1 minimum 15% takeout)

  1. 8 Marckie’s Water  – Dropping down from stakes races this one has every right to win here. Last out was much too long, Every right to win this one. Huge win play for me anywhere above 4/1.
  2. 2 Zestful – 2nd off an almost year layoff, this one has been great on dirt, turf and synthetic. A must use for me, especially given the works back on 9/26 and 9/18. 
  3. 5 Border Town – First time gelding, this one has run big races between a 1 mile and 1 ⅜, like his chances here but a clear third choice for me.

Race 9

6 1/2 Furlongs 3+ Claiming $16k

Low level sprint with 13 horses. Wide open race and I’m going to take a stand in my pick 5 and the Golden Hour bets, but wide in my pick 4.

  1. 7 Nesbitt – Not taking a huge stand with the 3rd choice, but dropped in class the last two, and has hit the board in 4 of his 5 races. I like this one sitting off a very fast pace and coming late to take this one.
  2. 9 Etterbay Ucklay – Hoping for a very fast pace for this one to come home. Best closer in the group, with 3-5 horses going for the lead, this one has a shot at a late move to win.
  3. 4 Indy Jones – Has run a good 4th the last couple of races. Moving from a mile to 6 ½ will likely help this one, Not going to play a lot on horizontals on this one, but will include. 

Early Pick 5: $72 Early Pick 4: $36

R1 – 6/5/4/3

R2 – 6/1 R2: 6/1

R3 – 6/3/1 R3: 6/3/1

R4 –  6/4/8 R4: 6/4/8/1/2/3

R5 –  4/6 R5: 4/6

Late Pick 5: $20 Late Pick 4: $100

R5: 4/6

R6:  9 R6: 9/10

R7:  8/1/2/7 R7: 8/1/2/7

R8:  8               R8: 8/2/5/4/3 

R9:  7/9/4/6/8             R9:  7/9/4/6/8

Will likely play this one for $5

Golden Hour Pick 4 – $50 ($1) Golden Hour Double – $25 ($5)

SA R8 (A) – 9

GG R7 (B)- 4/1

SA R9 (C ) – 7/9/4/6/8             SA R9 (A) – 7

GG R8 (D) – 3/8/4/5/1 GG R8 (B) –  3/8/4/5/1

Close Menu