Race of the Week Preview: Hal’s Hope
Saturday February 23rd: Race 11 at Gulfstream Park. The $100,000 Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes run at one mile on the dirt for four year olds and upward. (Post Time: 4:58 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
This Saturday marks the 29th edition of the Hal’s Hope Stakes at Gulfstream Park. Previously the race was run under such names as the Hal’s Hope Handicap and before that the Crème Fraiche Stakes. A very intriguing field of nine runners (including five horses, two geldings, one ridgling, and a colt) is signed on to contest the one-turn mile distance. Three of those entrants have not been seen since last summer and enter this race following layoffs of 294, 280, and 259 days. The field itself is an eclectic mix of proven older horses, several four-year olds looking to make their 2019 campaign debut and a couple of newer faces trying to make a splash amongst the handicap division this year. So without further ado let’s dive into a horse-by-horse analysis of this field.
(1) Tale of Silence: [Tale of the Cat-Sunday Silence; Tagg Barclay/Julien Leparoux; 5-1; 15-3-3-2]
Saturday marks the 2019 debut for Tale of Silence following a 294 day layoff after narrowly winning the Westchester Stakes (G3) last May at Belmont Park in what can be described as a blanket finish. The field that Tale of Silence took on in that race was relatively weak and the Barclay trainee’s chances were certainly helped by the wickedly fast initial pace of the race that allowed him to close quite well. That effort was just his third start of 2018 and his performance was good enough to earn him a 118 TimeForm US speed rating. However, he has been laid up since then and other than a bullet work that he fired off on February 6th at the Palm Meadows Training Track, his recent works have been far from impressive. Yet the one-turn mile (a distance at which he has hit the board in all four tries) should suit him and the rail post at Gulfstream thus far is winning at a 20% clip. As one of two runners in this field that possess decent closing ability, he will need another fairly swift pace up front in order to have a chance to finish in the money. If he remains at or around his Morning Line odds of 5-1, he certainly will be playable in this race as he has made it a habit of his hitting the board in spots like this. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
(2) Fellowship: [Awesome of Course-Demidoff; Kenneth Decker/Irad Ortiz Jr; 12-1; 34-5-4-5]
The third place finisher of last month’s Fred W Hooper Stakes (G3) run at this same configuration at Gulfstream comes into this race looking to hit the board once again after having earned 117 TimeForm US speed figure for his performance over that sloppy track at odds of 70.5-1. Fellowship always seems to show up an give a good honest effort, though that most recent race was the first time that he had hit the board in nearly a year. Fellowship appears to be at his best when racing in one-turn races although he may possibly prefer going shorter than a mile and almost certainly will need a bit of pace up front to help his chances of finishing in the money on Saturday. It certainly helps that Gulfstream’s leading riding, Irad Ortiz, is signed on to ride on Saturday as Ortiz has been absolutely brilliant over the past week having gone 59-21-13-12 (36% win rate and 78% in the money rate). However, Fellowship’s trainer, over the past three years, has not done very well with runners making their second start off of a layoff as he has won just 5% of his past 63 starts. Additionally, this field may be just a bit too tough for Fellowship although it certainly is not one of the strongest fields that he’s faced in recent times. If he remains at or around his Morning Line odds of 12-1, then he certainly could be playable but should only be used when filling out exotics. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
(3) Breaking Lucky: [Looking at Lucky-Sky Classic; George Weaver/Luis Saez; 2-1; 26-4-6-6]
The runner up in last month’s Fred W Hooper Stakes enters this race as the prohibitive favorite and rightly so. Although he was basically just spinning his wheels for much of that last race over the sloppy track, it is quite possible that he prevailed through class alone to snatch second over Fellowship and in doing so earn a 117 TimeForm US speed figure. The horse that he lost to, Aztec Sense, had won eight races in a row going into that effort and thus there is no shame in that loss. Breaking Lucky has already won once going a one-turn mile at the current Gulfstream meet (that came in a December effort against $62.5K Optional Claimers when he earned a 120 TimeForm speed figure). There is a question if a one-turn mile is truly his best distance as he has shown himself to be equally if not more capable when going longer route distances. As one of a number of horses entered into this field that possess good early speed, the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated that it is possible that he will be out on the lead setting the pace. Yet with the rest of the speed in the field drawn to his outside, it is entirely possible that Luis Saez will instead elect to secure a spot along the rail and rate just behind the initial leaders before making a move as the field turns for home. This assembled field is not particularly impressive and if given the right trip he should have no problems besting his rivals. At 2-1 on the Morning Line and with those odds likely to dip even lower by post time, it might be best to use Breaking Lucky defensively only as he does not offer much value here. WIN CONTENDER
(4) Wild Shot: [Trappe Shot-Storm Cat; Rusty Arnold/Robby Alborado; 8-1; 13-2-3]
There is just a single effort on this five year old’s resume that if he can return to would make him competitive here against this field and that came in the 2017 edition of the Pat Day Mile (G3) in which he bested a very good field and in doing so earned a 122 TimeForm US speed figure which was a career best for him. However, since then he has not done much to speak of and his record against graded stakes company is quite poor. He would likely need a wet track to have a chance on Saturday, something which he will not receive. Additionally, his form over the past two races has been somewhat suspect. While he has displayed good early speed throughout his career and will likely be forwardly placed once again on Saturday, likely contesting the initial pace, his ability to stay on and remain in contention towards the latter portions of races is basically non-existent. Furthermore, over the past five years, Rusty Arnold has not done well with runners that are four years old or more, are contesting races on dirt and are returning from layoffs of 61-120 days as he is 0 for 25. This race does not appear to be a good spot for Wild Shot to run in and there is nothing that even remotely suggests he should be endorsed here. TOSS
(5) Quip: [Distorted Humor-Indian Charlie; Rodolphe Brisset/Jose Ortiz; 4-1; 6-3-1-0]
This promising young colt was once a serious contender for last year’s Triple Crown after he won the Tampa Bay Derby (G1) and then followed that effort up with a solid second place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1). But his connections elected to bypass the Kentucky Derby (G1) and instead pointed him towards the Preakness (G1). Now whether it was the absolute quagmire of a track that he encountered that day at Pimlico and simply didn’t take to or the fact that he ran into an absolute monster in eventual Triple-Crown winner Justify, Quip’s race was essentially over as the field turned for home. He ended up finishing eighth, more than 45 lengths behind Justify. His connections then attempted to spot him towards numerous other races throughout the summer but he never showed up for them; additionally, he was pointed towards the Razorback Handicap (G3) last week at Oaklawn Park but at the last minute the connections balked and elected to send him send him to a potentially softer landing spot in this Saturday’s Hal’s Hope. Quip has not raced competitively in 280 and given his recent work tab it is highly doubtful that he will be fully cranked up for this effort. Additionally, he has yet to contest a one-turn mile and for the first time in his career, Florent Geroux will not be in the irons. However, he does possess good early speed, he should be able to get a good trip with Ortiz onboard and the field he is squaring off against is not particularly robust. Given that this is his first time racing over the Gulfstream Park surface and that incredibly long layoff, it is quite hard to endorse Quip in this spot as he likely needs this race before he can be even remotely considered a contender in the 2019 handicap division. TOSS
(6) Mr. Jordan: [Kantharos-Cloud Hopping; Edward Plesa Jr/Charles Lopez; 10-1; 35-10-7-7]
Mr. Jordan will be making his second start of 2019 in this race following a disastrous seventh place effort last month in the $200K Sunshine Millions Classic (Listed) at Gulfstream in which he was beaten by 24 lengths. While there is no doubt that this gelding is as honest as the day is long, he may be much better suited racing at distances longer than one mile as not only is his record fairly poor (10-1-1-3) but also his speed seems to be more effective going two-turns rather than one. Additionally, Mr. Jordan has won just once in 18 lifetime starts at Gulfstream Park and it appears that his best efforts against graded stakes competition are a long way behind him at this point in his career. TOSS
(7) Copper Town: [Speightstown-Ghostzapper; Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano; 6-1; 6-3-1-0]
One of two entrants in this field for Pletcher, Copper Town was absolutely brilliant when he began his career as not only did he beat Backyard Heaven when breaking his maiden in his second career start but then followed that effort up with a scintillating score over Patternrecognition in a $77K Allowance race at Belmont in which he took the field gate to wire. But following that effort, he was laid up for nearly a year due to various injuries and it was not until October of 2018 that he returned to racing scoring another impressive win racing six and a half furlongs against $62.5 Optional Claimers at Keeneland. But then he faltered in the Cigar Mile Handicap (G1) last November at Aqueduct as he was bumped and had to be steadied at the start which basically ended all hopes of being competitive in that race. Then in his most recent effort, the Fred W Hooper (G3), he was quite fractious at the gates and likely did not appreciate the wet track which is somewhat odd given his pedigree. Thus a major question mark looms over Copper Town’s head: does he want to run anymore or has he simply forgotten what he is supposed to do when he’s at the gates? If he can somehow get past those recent gate issues on Saturday, he could be quite tough to beat here. Castellano will be onboard for the sixth time in seven lifetime starts and if Copper Town is ready to fire (his recent works would suggest that he is ready to do so) he will likely be sent to the lead and try and wire this field as he has shown absolutely blazing speed when he is at his best. If Copper Town remains near his Morning Line odds of 6-1 then he certainly will offer value in this race and should be included in all exotic wagers. WIN CONTENDER
(8) Sir Anthony: [Mineshaft-Smart Strike; Anthony Mitchell/Brian Hernandez Jr; 20-1; 14-5-2-2]
This four year old Illinois-bred appears to finally be coming into his own as he has won his last four efforts beginning with an quality victory in the $100K Bruce D Memorial Stakes (Listed) last August at Arlington Park at odds of 35.1-1 and then most recently just besting Audible at odds of 25.9-1 over a sloppy track in the Harlan’s Holiday (G3) last December at Gulfstream. In that most recent effort, he overcame a very slow initial pace, and although he was running in last early on, managed to pull off a beautiful trip as he saved ground along the rail and gave a game account of himself to win by just half a length. Despite the slow pace of the race, he did earn a 113 TimeForm US speed figure which is actually a career best for him. However, he is likely at his best when racing over a wet track and Mitchell has not done particularly well over the past three years with runners making their first start following layoffs of 45-90 days as he has won just 8% of his past 25 starts. Although Sir Anthony has proven that he does not need a fast pace to be able to close into in order to run well, it appears that he might be just a bit overmatched versus this field and should be considered a fringe contender at best. TOSS
(9) Prince Lucky: [Corinthian-Great Notion; Todd Pletcher/John Velazquez; 8-1; 8-4-0-2]
The “other Pletcher runner” in this field, Prince Lucky comes into this race making his four year old debut following a 259 day layoff. His most recent effort came way back on last year’s Belmont Stakes undercard in which he scored a neck victory over Rugbyman in the $150K Easy Goer Stakes (Listed). That performance was an incredibly gutsy effort in which he was involved in a virtual dogfight from the quarter pole to the wire and showed no quit throughout that run. Furthermore he earned a career best 117 TimeForm US speed rating for that game display and if he can take to the one-turn mile on Saturday (as this will be his first time even attempting the distance) he could be dangerous. Prince Lucky does have very good tactical speed and given his far outside draw, it is more than likely that Velazquez will tuck him in behind the initial pace-setters and hope to make a bid for the lead either as the field turns for home or in the initial part of the stretch run. The biggest question surrounding this gelding is exactly how well will he run on Saturday. By all accounts he appears to be quite fit as he has been posting some bullet recent works over the training track at Palm Beach Downs for Pletcher. And speaking of Pletcher, he has been absolutely phenomenal over the past three years with getting runners to fire following layoffs of more than 90 days as he has been winning at a 31% clip and finishing in the money 57% of the time. If Prince Lucky can remain near his 8-1 Morning Line odds, then he certainly is worth a long look in this race as he has an outside chance of scoring an upset victory should his stablemate, Copper Town, and Breaking Lucky duel themselves into submission battling on the lead. LIVE LONGSHOT