Race of the Week Preview: Gotham
Saturday March 9th: Race 10 at Aqueduct. The $300,000 Grade 3 Gotham Stakes run at one mile on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 5:09 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
The origins of the Gotham Stakes date back to the now defunct Jamaica Racetrack where the race began in 1953. Originally run at a mile and a sixteenth, the Gotham was moved to its present home at Aqueduct in 1960 after the Jamaica Racetrack shut its doors in August of 1959. Throughout its history the Gotham has been run at a variety of distances ranging from one mile and 70 yards to eight and a half furlongs. Since 2018, it has been run at its current distance of a one-turn mile. The annals of past winners of the Gotham are filled with such illustrious names as: Native Dancer (1953), Dr. Fager (1967), Secretariat (1973), as well as Easy Goer (1989). The most recent winner of the race at its new one-turn mile configuration was Enticed for trainer Kiaran McLaughlin and Godolphin Racing. Currently trainer Shug McGaughey holds the record for most wins in the Gotham with three whilst amongst trainers with runners in this year’s field, McLaughlin has two wins (his other win came back in 2006 with Like Now). Jockey Mike Smith is currently in a five-way tie for most wins in the race with three, although he is the only jockey on that list that is still active today. However, Smith has not won this race since 1995 when he did it aboard Talkin Man for trainer Roger Attfield.
Over the past ten editions of this race, runners that have either sat just off the pace and effectively rated or those that had the ability to close well after stalking initially from mid-pack have absolutely dominated the Gotham as they have won eight of the last ten contests. The two wins that were not secured by a horse possessing either of those running styles came when El Kabeir (2015) and Vyjack (2013) closed from well off the pace to win; over the last ten years a horse that has initially been on the lead and set the pace has not won this race. That does not bode well for the majority of this year’s field unfortunately as the bulk of the entrants (six of the eight in fact) have displayed a propensity in a number of their most recent efforts for wanting to either be on the lead or very closely placed to the front. On another note is that this field is absolutely loaded with star-caliber runners. After the indefinite suspension of racing at Santa Anita following an inordinate amount of breakdowns since their meet began back on December 26th, trainers Jerry Hollendorfer and Bob Baffert elected to send two of their charges, Instagrand and Much Better respectively, out East in hopes of securing much needed Kentucky Derby points. In fact Instagrand will be making his 2019 debut after having not been seen since winning the Best Pal (G2) last August at Del Mar and will be squaring off against several Grade 1 winners in Knicks Go and Mind Control. Overall this is indeed a rather intriguing bunch of three year olds signed on to contest this year’s edition of the Gotham and so let’s dive on in and take a look at the entire field.
1. Family Biz: [Fed Biz-Master Command; Ed Barker/Kendrick Carmouche; 30-1; 7-1-2-2]
Last seen finishing a distant fourth behind Haikal in the seven furlong $150K Jimmy Winkfield Stakes (Listed) last month at Aqueduct, trainer Ed Barker will be stretching out this son of Fed Biz to a one-turn mile once again. However, in two prior attempts in which Family Biz has contested this distance at Aqueduct he has finished a well beaten third behind Mind Control in the $150K Jerome Stakes (Listed) at the beginning of the year as well as fourth, beaten by eight and a half lengths, in a $60K Optional Claiming race at the beginning of February. The 100 TimeForm speed rating that he earned in that last effort lags well behind the most recent speed figures for many of the rivals he faces on Saturday. Although there is plenty of early speed entered into this race which theoretically should set up the pace quite well for a runner like Family Biz with that late closing kick of his, it appears that he is a bit overmatched against this field. Barker has not done well over the past three years with runners making the transition from sprint to route distances (although this one-turn mile technically could be considered an elongated sprint) and at best the most the connections can hope for is that Family Biz can pick off some struggling runners late down the stretch and perhaps hit the board to round out the superfecta. TOSS
2. Knicks Go: [Paynter-Outflanker; Ben Colebrook/Jose Lezcano; 12-1; 7-2-1-1]
Exactly which version of Knicks Go that shows up on Saturday remains a mystery. Will the brilliant, flashy form that he displayed as a two-year old when winning the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and just missing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) re-emerge or will he once again prove that those races were simply the result of him being a flash-in-the-pan precocious two year old that is unable to compete with his rivals now that he’s turned three? His performance at the end of November over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) was initially though to have been an aberration: a result of a wet surface not to his liking and a race in which he was likely coming out of form. However, in his 2019 debut in the Sam F Davis (G3), Knicks Go proved those thoughts to be unfounded as he completely flopped in that race once again after initially pressing the pace. His recent speed figures (both Brisnet and TimeForm) don’t even come close to allowing him to be competitive against this field and given the fact that he likes to be forwardly placed and as the Pace Projector has indicated that he will in all likelihood be on the lead once again contesting the initial fractions whilst dueling with several other front-running types, it is incredibly tough to endorse his chances of even hitting the board in this race. The move by Colebrook to ship Knicks Go away from his Tampa Bay training base and up to Aqueduct is a bit of a head scratcher as Colebrook has not done very well with runners that ship out to make their next start. Although the cutback in distance could potentially benefit his running style, Knicks Go’s most recent work does not suggest that he is coming into this race in good form. TOSS
3. Mind Control: [Stay Thirsty-Lightnin N Thunder; Gregory Sacco/John Velazquez; 9/2; 5-3-1-0]
Mind Control makes just his second start of 2019 after a solid gate to wire effort at the beginning of the year in the $150K Jerome Stakes over a good rated one-turn mile at Aqueduct. The 107 TimeForm speed rating that he earned for that effort was solid enough as the initial fractions that he set forth in that race were rather pedestrian. It is good to see Velazquez remain onboard as he has won in each of the starts he’s ridden Mind Control. Additionally, Sacco has traditionally done well with runners coming into a race off of a layoff and has done quite well with runners that won their last race. This colt has been working solidly over the Belmont training track since the beginning of the year but there are some concerns surrounding him. First, this race marks a major step up in class from his last race and while he has squared off against graded stakes competition before in both the Hopeful (G1) and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), this is a rather solid bunch of rivals that he is taking on. Second, the running style presents a major issue. In four of his five career starts, Mind Control has shown a desire to either be on the lead or sit just off and press the pace. However, there are five other runners in this field that over the course of their careers have displayed the exact same affinity for that particular running style. Thus it would be no surprise to see him either become embroiled in a speed duel on the front end or try and ineffectively press the pace (his early pace speed figures according to Brisnet are not nearly as fast as those of some of his main rivals). In either scenario, the end result is not good for Mind Control. The only situation that could potentially result in Mind Control even finishing in the money is if the other speed runners do not fire on Saturday and allow him to get out to an easy uncontested lead, but that is incredibly unlikely. If Mind Control can somehow hang on for a share late, at 9/2 on the Morning Line he’s worth a possible shot to fill out exotics. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
4. Much Better: [Pioneerof the Nile-Vindication; Bob Baffert/Mike Smith; 10-1; 5-2-1-1]
Normally the combination of Bob Baffert and Mike Smith in a Kentucky Derby prep race would be a no-brainer for endorsement as a potential win candidate; not so fast. Much Better unfortunately is not the prototypical Baffert runner that people are used to seeing this time of year. In fact, even Baffert does not appear to be quite sure exactly what this horse is best suited for. Is he a turf runner? Is he a sprinter? Perhaps a combination of the two? His pedigree suggests that he is better suited for sprinting, although it is indeed plausible that a one-turn mile will be within his wheelhouse. The 109 TimeForm speed rating that he earned at Santa Anita last month would be good enough to make him a contender in this field, but it was earned whilst sprinting over six and a half furlongs on a track that had a major speed bias that day. Much Better’s only prior attempt at one mile on the dirt came in the Sham Stakes (G3) in which he finished third behind Gunmetal Gray and Sueno, both of whom are very solid horses. It is notable that Mike Smith flies in to ride Much Better as this is his only mount for Saturday’s card at Aqueduct and both his and Baffert’s relevant stats are quite good. Smith will likely try and get Much Better involved into the pace scenario early on, whether that is through contesting the initial fractions up front or sitting just off the leaders and pressing the pace. Much Better’s recent works suggest that he is in fine form coming into this race and should be ready to fire but the fact that he received perfect trips in his two wins combined with his running style is cause for concern. It is possible that Much Better could sneak into the trifecta and presuming bettors don’t lower his 10-1 Morning Line odds too much, he might offer some value in this race. USE UNDERNEATH ONLY
5. Haikal: [Daaher-Distorted Humor; Kiaran McLaughlin/Rajiv Maragh; 6-1; 3-2-1-0]
Shadwell Stable has found success in this race in the past, most recently with Shagaf back in 2016 and they are looking to possibly pull off another upset again this year. In his most recent effort in the $150K Jimmy Winkfield Stakes, Haikal was rather impressive. He was well back of the pace early on, moved up into contention along the rail as the field turned for home, patiently bided his time whilst in tight along the rail down the stretch and when his nearby rival finally ceded some space, he took off like a canon shot, just edging out that rival at the wire. His speed figures (according to Brisnet) have been steadily improving in each and every start and he was awarded a 106 TimeForm speed rating for that most recent effort. Additionally, his recent work over Belmont training track was solid and when Maragh and McLaughlin have teamed up over the past 60 days, the pair has been quite successful. However, this race does mark a step up in class for Haikal and it will be his first attempt at a one-turn mile; although, his performance in that most recent race suggests he actually might benefit from the increase in distance. As the TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a potential fast pace for this race, that should allow it to set up well for Haikal’s closing running style. However, should there be any kind of speed bias to the track that day, such favoritism could potentially hinder Haikal’s chances of winning this race and limit him to a board finish instead. So do pay attention to how the track is playing earlier in the day before determining how to use Haikal in this race. LIVE LONGHSOT
6. Instagrand: [Into Mischief-Lawyer Ron; Jerry Hollendorfer/Javier Castellano; 1-1; 2-2-0-0]
Arguably the star attraction of this field, this precocious colt is set to make his 2019 debut on Saturday after trainer Jerry Hollendorfer acquiesced to owner Larry Best’s demands that this colt be given time off after two impressive scores during the summer. In those two efforts, Instagrand beat his rivals by a combined 20 lengths all the while earning TimeForm speed ratings of 112 and 107. Yet, Instagrand has not been seen since last August and he has yet to contest a race further than six furlongs. The decision to ship Instagrand out East to run in the Gotham was made several weeks ago when it became apparent that had Hollendorfer elected to remain in California he would have had to square off against the two biggest names in Bob Baffert’s barn in Game Winner and Improbable in the San Felipe (G2) at Santa Anita. Thus Hollendorfer has had Instagrand training up for this debut for quite a while and his works over the much scrutinized track at Santa Anita have been impressive as was his most recent gate work at Aqueduct. It is fairly apparent that Instagrand is by all appearances quite fit coming into this race; the major question surrounding him though is exactly what form is he in and will he be ready to fire on Saturday. The prior two gate to wire efforts leave no illusions as to what his preferred running style is; although in a field filled with so much other early speed, perhaps his best chance of winning may come if Castellano can try to get him to effectively rate. Hollendorfer has done fairly well when bringing back runners off of such long layoffs and if Instagrand can not only return fresh but handle the stretch out in distance as well, he could very well win on Saturday. At even money on the Morning Line, Instagrand offers no value but he still must be respected in this field and should only be used defensively in any and all wagers, especially multi-race. WIN CONTENDER
7. Not That Brady: [Big Brown-Drewman; Rudy Rodriguez/Reylu Gutierrez; 5-1; 6-2-2-0]
On Saturday, Not That Brady will be tasked with his toughest challenge yet as he cuts back in distance following a narrow defeat in last month’s Withers Stakes (G3). In that nine furlong effort, Not That Brady dictated solid initial fractions and led the field for nearly the entire race before being caught by rival Tax down the stretch and just got edged out by a head at the wire despite a very game effort. The 120 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that performance towers over this field and he should greatly benefit from the cutback in distance today to a one-turn mile. The connections of jockey and trainer are both very solid and his record of 4-2-2-0 at Aqueduct is certainly to be admired. Since that effort in the Withers, Not That Brady has posted two solid but not particularly flashy works over the surface at Aqueduct. The only real concern with him is his running style. Not That Brady prefers to be on the lead and dictating the pace (which is fairly apparent as in his last four efforts he has tried to take each field in gate to wire fashion) but that propensity to be so forwardly placed will not be to his benefit on Saturday. There simply is too much other early speed entered into this field for Not That Brady to try and get away with setting the initial pace in uncontested fashion; although if he becomes involved in a speed duel on the front end there is a definite possibility that he could still grind out an on the board finish. His 5-1 Morning Line odds are a fair price and will offer good value if he goes off around there at post time. USE UNDERNEATH
8. Tikhvin Flew: [Street Sense-Deputy Minister; Steve Asmussen/Dylan Davis; 12-1; 2-1-0-1]
In his most recent effort, Tikhvin Flew finished third behind Haikal in the $150K Jimmy Winkfield Stakes last month at Aqueduct. He had initially sat just off of the pace in third early on, and while he did make a move to challenge for the lead as the field turned into the stretch, that bid was repelled and he faded slightly after that. Unfortunately this was his second attempt at seven furlongs in his career and according to both Brisnet and TimeForm his speed figures regressed in this second effort from a 113 speed rating to a 107. Tikhvin Flew has yet to stretch out to a mile and while his pedigree suggests that is certainly possible for him, his chances at finding success on Saturday appear to be quite slim. First and foremost, the Gotham marks a major step up in class for this lightly raced colt and unfortunately the field he has to square off against is quite good. Second, although his pace-pressing ability should be an asset in a race with so much early speed signed on, if Davis elects to keep Tikhvin Flew near a wickedly fast initial pace, there is the potential that he could become embroiled in a speed duel and have his stamina sapped to the point that there is nothing left in reserve as the field turns for home. Finally, the jockey switch is a bit puzzling as whilst Davis is a solid rider, the familiarity that existed with Manny Franco does not exist with Davis as the latter has never ridden this colt before. Two of Tikhvin Flew’s most recent works have been fairly pedestrian and do not inspire much confidence that he will run well on Saturday. Additionally, Asmussen has done only marginally well when making the switch to a route distance after two prior sprint efforts. Thus nothing really stands out to allow for any endorsement of Tikhvin Flew. TOSS