Saratoga Race 3: The Grade 3 Saranac, 3yo, 1 Mile, Turf:
This is a solid grade 3 field early in the card. Obviously, the weather is a big question mark, so I’ll handicap accordingly.
1. Vanzzy: He was glad to get away from Clement’s three year olds when he won the Jersey Derby last out. His turf form is strong, but like many of these, he’ll likely have to contend with a softer course than they’re used to. He’s a definite contender on the grass.
2. Bye Bye Melvin: Mean Mary’s kid half-brother is not as flashy as his older sister, but he’s getting better. He got within a few lengths of Vanzzy last out, but needs to take a bigger step forward to hit the board with these.
3. Three Technique: It’s not a surprise to see this son of Mr. Speaker try the grass. He’s showed a lot of potential on the dirt and two and three, but was dull last out when he was way overbet in the Jerkens. He’s not impossible here, but I’d need his odds to float above his 6-1 morning line to play him on grass. On dirt, he’s a logical player.
4. L’imperator: He makes his North American debut for Chad Brown today while also running for the first time since March. He can definitely handle a softer course, which is a question mark for many others in here. I think he’s a contender for at least the minor awards.
5. Don Juan Kitten: He won a nice allowance race here last month and got a big figure in the process. Perhaps that figure was aided by a runaway on the lead, setting blazing fractions, and this guy getting first run on the field. I’m thinking he’s going to have a tough time repeating that effort. I’m trying to beat him.
6. Big Dreaming: He has the least experience of any in here, making only his fourth career start. He beat an optional claiming/allowance field last out at Arlington, but I’m not sure how deep that field was. This is a big step up.
7. Irish Mias: He’s a half to Irish War Cry and Irish Strait and he runs for the same connections. He has been close in some of those races, but not quite good enough. He ran well here last summer in an off the turf maiden special, so he could be upgraded if this race is contested on the main track.
8. Ima Pharoah: This MTO was second in his first four tries before breaking his maiden last out. The light bulb could have gone off for him, and he should be respected on dirt.
9. Embolden: He made his three year old debut at Colonial and finished a close second to a decent older turf horse in Largent. Jose Ortiz picks up the mount today, which is a plus. The mile might be at the edge of the capabilities today, but he’s a definite contender on either surface.
10. Bodecream: This looks like a private purchase as Mike Repole moves him into the Mike Maker barn. Toss his last when he had trouble at the break and got buried behind a huge field. He can run on firm or softer ground and should be a big player in this race. He’s my pick if this race stays on the lawn.
11. Turn of Events: He finally broke his maiden while dropping to maiden claiming last time in his ninth start. He beat a decent field for the level, but this is a big time step up.
My Picks: Turf: 10-1-9 / Dirt: 9-8-3
Saratoga Race 8: The Grade 1 Forego, 7 Furlongs:
This is always one of the better sprint races of the year and this year it’s a wide open eleven horse field with no clear favorite.
1. Everfast: He’s a perplexing horse whose one of three sent out by Jack Sisterson and Calumet Farm. He’s run a few big races, like last years Preakness and the Blame this year. In between though, there’s a bunch a unmemorable races. He beat an average field at the distance here on August 1st. He’s not the worst 30-1 shot I’ve seen, but he’s tough to count on.
2. Whitmore: He won this race as a 5 year old two years back, and he might be in even better form now. He was dead game in the Vanderbilt last out against a freak in Volatile despite breaking through the gate prior to the start. I think 6 Furlongs is his sweet spot, but he can go 7. He’s dangerous today, as he usually is.
3. Lexitonian: He was scratched at the gate in the Vanderbilt, but was able to go the next week to Del Mar, where he just missed in the Bing Crosby. He comes back four weeks later and stretches to seven furlongs, which may be his best distance. He’s an improving four year old who will likely be a lot closer to the pace today, which may work well as there’s not a ton of early speed.
4. Funny Guy: This New York bred son of Big Brown has run hard in his two starts as a four year old, beating state breds in the Commentator and John Morrissey Stakes. He moves to open company for the first time in a graded sprint race. The weather forecast is iffy, so I’d definitely upgrade his chances in an off track.
5. True Timber: He made his first start for Sisterson last month in a pretty salty optional claiming/allowance race at Keeneland, where he was a respectable third. He could improve in his second start off the layoff. He hasn’t won in a long time, but he’s been competitive, and I think this is his best distance.
6. Complexity: He’s the first of two sent out by Chad Brown and he’s coming in off a strong effort against a good group of optional claiming/allowance foes at Belmont last
month. When he’s good, he wins by open lengths, but he’s thrown in the towel badly in three of his seven starts. I’m trying to beat him today.
7. Win Win Win: I was a little surprised to see this one back on dirt, as I thought we’d see him more on the lawn after his strong win the Manila last year. He ran a decent second behind Complexity last out and I think merits some attention. His best chance is for a strong pace to develop in front of him.
8. Firenze Fire: Kelly Breen has started to get this guy back in to better form after coming in from the Jason Servis barn. He was last in the Vanderbilt last out, but only beaten two. He was a decent second in this race last year behind Mitole, but he’s never run his best races here.
9. Majestic Dunhill: He’s a closing sprinter that has been racing at 7 Furlongs at a variety of tracks over last several starts. He comes back to the dirt after two 7 Furlong turf sprints. He hasn’t run a race that would beat these in a while.
10. Mind Control: He won the Grade 1 Hopeful at 7 Furlongs here in 2018 and the Grade 1 Allen Jerkens here at 7 Furlongs in 2019. He’s not flashy, but he’s won half of his starts and four of seven at the distance. I think he’ll sit a great trip from his outside draw. I didn’t like his race two back in the slop, but he rebounded nicely last out. I’m using him on top, as long as the track is not sloppy.
11. Fortin Hill: He’s the other horse sent out by Chad Brown in this race. Like his stablemate, he’s coming off a big effort in optional claiming/allowance company at Belmont. He was bred to be a good one, but he’s had a lot of space in between starts. It wouldn’t shock me if he ran big again, but I’m betting against that happening.
My Picks: 10-2-4 (fast-good)/ 4-2-7 (muddy-sloppy)