Race 1: Claiming $12,500 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Diamant (Buhrow/Vickers)- Wasn’t a factor at this level last year, and the trainer has poor stats first off the layoff. Hard pass.
2- Priza N a Half (McKinley/Fox): He’s been beaten double digit-lengths in each of his last six races. Not feeling this one, either.
3- Spicy Shot (Dickey/Martinez): Broke his maiden easily at Louisiana Downs about a year ago, then had a tough trip at Fair Grounds and lost all chance. He’s very lightly-raced, with just three starts to his name, and his impressive debut figure suggests he’s got upside. A major player.
4- Peas and Carrots (Gonzalez/Spieth): Battled for the lead last out before fading. His 1-for-21 mark is cause for pause, but he’s been in sharp form recently, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he broke through.
5- Unclenedwhodrank (Rawles/Bracho): Won his only race so far coming from behind at Timonium, which should be enough for automatic Hallof Fame induction in my book. Some of his best races have come since that win, and his late pace figure are the best in the group. Runs for the first time since December 4.
6- Lotta Cool Times (Connelly/Morales): He couldn’t have been worse in his 2019 debut, and his form last year was kind of in-and-out. If the good version of him shows up, watch out. If not…well, watch out.
7- Mikado (L Allen/M Allen): Ran a fluky big figure three starts back of 81, but hasn’t come close to that number before or since. Would have to repeat it to have a good chance, and I don’t see reason to believe that he will.
TOP PICKS: 3-4-6
Race 2: Claiming $5,000 (c), 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
1- Alandtom (DePasquale/Morales): Stone-cold closer struggled against open claimers near the end of the year, and now faces easier company for his seasonal bow. Workouts have been sluggish; could need a race or two to round into form.
2- Smart But Foolish (Potts/R Allen): Loves hitting the board, but not winning. Expecting him to stumble into another small paycheck again.
1A- Sky Blue Magnolia (DePasquale/Delgado): Clearly the weaker half of the DePasquale entry. Was soundly beaten in his last two races of 2018 at Mountaineer, and I’d be surprised if he made any significant improvement.
3- Geh Schnell (Girten/Spieth): Has great recent figures and some early speed in a race that looks devoid of pace. Will be interesting to see if Spieth sends him early.
4- Capt. Zippounas (Brooks/Gallardo): Hard-knocking veteran seeks his 19th career win. Turned in some strong late closing kicks to win twice at the meet last year, and always raced well against similar. He was in prime form first off the long layoff last year, and I expect the same to be true this time.
5- Chilly Bay (Rogers/Dominguez): Started to go off-form in his last two races of last year, and his workouts have not been inspiring as he gears for his season debut. Will have to wait and see.
6- Owl Creek (Rogers/Pino): The other Mike Rogers entrant, he’s another dead closer who probably won’t get a lick of pace to run at. Good luck.
7- Crown Prince (Barron/Vickers): Ran big figures when facing better at Woodbine last year, now comes back first off the bench. Turned in some strong performances at this level here last year.
TOP PICKS: 3-7-4
Race 3: Maiden Claiming $6,250, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Fellow (Brooks/Walker): Will need a head-start just to have a chance.
2- Rockysbuckaroo (Markgraf/Stanley): Raced twice at Gulfstream Park last year, and stopped on a dime both times. Has had some time off and some decent workouts, maybe now he can extend his speed.
3- Maximum Factor (Dickey/Martinez): His debut at Louisiana Downs last August resulted in a decent third. He followed that up with three tries on turf, with mixed success. Tries maiden claiming company for the first time. Worth a look.
4- Late Act Jones (Martin/Morales): Ran an OK figure when sprinting first out, then tried to route and did nothing. Cuts back in distance and gets Morales aboard.
5- Souper Warrior (Brooks/Gallado): He was forced five-wide in a five-furlong race at Woodbine, which is usually a recipe for disaster. In spite of that, he closed well late and finished third. He’s fairly lightly-raced, and gets Gallardo aboard.
6- Darby Dart (Walsh/R Allen): Had a rough break in his yearly bow at Gulfstream, them showed speed and faded going a route. He was inspired enough last year that I’m willing to give him a shot.
7- After the Money (Burhow/Vickers): On one hand, his brisnet figures are vastly superior to those of the rest. On the other hand, he’s 0-for-34. Has he finally found a field he can beat? I want to say yes.
8- Ivegotthatmagicinme (Rawles/Bracho): I don’t think he’s got enough magic in him to win first time off a year-plus layoff.
9- Treasure Mine (Bourke/Alencar): Cuts back to a sprint after some very bad route tries, and races for the first time since August. His workouts have been solid, but I’ll need to see some ability first.
TOP PICKS: 7-5-3
Race 4: Maiden Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- No Way Never (Rice/Morales): One-time Ward trainee stopped badly when going a route at Gulfstream last out. Gets off the turf for the first time and cuts back in distance. Has great early pace figures and could try to wire them.
2- No Choice (L Allen/M Allen): Prompted the pace a few times recently, but always fell flat late. Expecting a similar performance here.
3- Acrobat (Markgraf/Stanley): His only dirt start was a disaster. He came very close to wiring his only turf race. He hasn’t been seen for almost a year. What to do?
4- El Rojo (Brooks/R Allen): Couldn’t last on Laurel Park’s long stretch of their one-turn miles. Ran some good races over the winter, but his figures have been tailing off as of late.
5- Big Max (W Rice/Cox): Ran a game second for a $25,000 tag two back, then was a total disaster in his yearly bow last out. It was his first start in nine months, but still, he lost by 39 lengths. Showed good enough form last year at Presque Isle that I have to consider him.
6- Neverlookback (Rojas/Dominguez): He was uninspiring all four times he raced last year. Is fifth time’s the charm?
7- Felon No More (Hogue/Villa-Gomez): He’s never sniffed the lead in his life, and is now running for the first time since September 6. Runs for a tag for the first time, so that could help.
8- Offing (Buhrow/Fox): Well-beaten three times in a row at Thistledown last year, and the trainer is not good with horses off a long layoff. Not feeling it.
TOP PICKS: 1-5-2
Race 5: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, 1 Mile
1- Roaring Ocean (Pease/Vickers): Wasn’t a factor against maiden claimers in Maryland and Kentucky, now gets a trainer change and faces slightly weaker. Will need to show more.
2- Hot Traffic (Walsh/R Allen): Tried turf for the first time last out, and showed some sharp improvement. Getting first-time lasix here. Hopefully, he’ll continue to take steps forward at age 3.
3- Noble Weed (Potts/Villa-Gomez): This $55,000 purchase debuts for the Ron Potts barn, which hits at 38% with first-timers. It took a while for him to get ready, but he’s had a steady worktab coming in here and catches a soft group. Could fire a big one at first asking.
4- Caritadda’s Prince (Loveland/Martinez): Was well-beaten on debut at Churchill Downs. Drops in class first off the layoff, but still has to improve dramatically.
5- Sunday Scaries (Lyster/Spieth): Improved position while racing wide in his first start at Keeneland, while running a sharp brisnet figure of 68. Works since that race have been good. Interested to see how he goes around two turns.
6- Proquestor (Caramori/Gallardo): He’s had 14 tries to break his maiden, but has never been good enough. Gets the top jock for his Presque Isle debut, and ran some good figures over the synthetic at Arlington Park last year. Cautiously optimistic.
7- Whisper Barrow (W Rice/Cox): Tried this level many times last year without success. Look for him to set the early pace and give way.
8- Malibu in Motion (Motion/Morales): Finished a strong second in his Laurel Park debut to Red Gum, to wenton to win his next start. Workouts at Fair Hill have been good. Only downside is the far outside post with a short run into the first turn.
TOP PICKS: 3-8-5
Race 6: Claiming $25,000, 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Stevis Man (Rodriguez/Gallardo): Showed speed and faded four times in a row against similar company last year. Trainer Darien Rodriguez is 26% first off the claim: can he do the trick?
2- Fox Rox (Hoffman/Morales): Tried a route for his first start off the layoff last out, and it didn’t go so well. Had decent form last year against similar company. This is trainer Mark Hoffman’s first starter since 2012.
3- Runaway Posse (Pots/Villa-Gomez): Has a recent bullet workout but also hasn’t been in sharp form as of late.
4- Less Than Perfect (K Rice/Ayala): He’s been working sharply for his return to the races, with two bullet drills. His two best figures last year came with Addiel Ayala in the saddle, who returns here. His best races win it.
5- Kate’s Golden Dude (Kintz/Pino): Turfway Park figures were sharp over the winter, and he returns here after a brief freshening. Tended to sit good trips and make rallies, only to flatten out late. I expect that to happen again.
6- Dr. Koy (Martin/M Allen): Ran two duds at Oaklawn Park, but now returns to a track where he’s had a lot of success and makes his third start off the layoff while facing easier company. I must respect him. Should go off at an inflated price due to his poor recent form.
7- Expediter (Ferraro/R Allen): Won two in a row at Finger Lakes last year, while blowing the field off their feet on the lead. Turned in a dud at Aqueduct in December and got some time off to recover. He’s had a string of workouts to get ready for this one. I’m expecting a big one out of him.
8- With Exultation (Brooks/Spieth): He’s been in dull form for a while now, and there’s not much reason to believe he can step it up against these. Is cross-entered on Wednesday.
TOP PICKS: 7-4-6
Race 7: Allowance (n/w1x), 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, PA-bred, 6 Furlongs
1- Ma de Taw (Rogers/R Allen): Struggled against similar company at the meet last year, and runs for the first time since July 9.
2- Darcy Mae (Hayes/Morales): Her most recent start off the turf, back in September of 2016, was a dud; she lost by 33 lengths. If her turf form transfers over to the synthetic, she’s got a shot, but it’s a big if.
3- Cocoleecho (McKinley/Fox): The only field she meat over the winter at Mahoning Valley was a cheap $4,000 claiming field. She won it by running a huge outlier figure. I’d be surprised.
4- Redeem My Heart (Girten/Spieth): Lightly-raced filly earned a huge figure with an impressive maiden win here back in July. Runs for the first time since a fourth-place finish in the Mrs. Henry Paxton in September. Has lots of upside.
5- At Least (Bourke/Schwartz): She’s got the best late pace figures in the field, and had improving form at the end of last year, running a 74 against PA-bred claimers last out. I’m interested to see how she does first off the layoff.
6- Pemaquid Sally (Connelly/Gallardo): Outfinished Redeem My Heart twice last year, and is the only horse in the field to earn a brisnet figure in the 70s in each of her last three races. Recent workouts have been sharp.
7- Oh My Precious (Cheeks/Ayala): Had very steady form last year, but couldn’t break the low-70s barrier.
TOP PICKS: 6-5-4
Race 8: Maiden Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 6 Furlongs
1- Bella Nora (Rawles/Bracho): Lone main-track result was an 18-length defeat where she was never a factor.
2- Theykeeponcomin (Martin/Ayala): Form at Presque Isle last year was sharp, and she gets a big jockey upgrade from those races. The only downside: trainer Joe Martin is not very good with horses off a long layoff.
3- Treasure the Storm (DePasquale/Walker): Showed speed and faded several times last year, including a fade at five furlongs. I’m not convinced that she can last when confronting with pace pressure.
4-Here’s I Am (Loveland/R Allen): Indiana Grand shipper closed sharply late, in a career-best late. Is she getting good at the right time?
5- Tiki Bar Queen (Connelly/Morales): Makes her first start in fifteen months, after two dull tries on the turf. No idea what to expect of her here. The trainer-jockey combo is a plus.
6- Timberline Lodge (Dickey/Martinez): None of her three races have been very inspiring.
7- Bridgelands (Girten/Vickers): Ran a big figure in her first race, then regressed sharply second out. Drops in for a tag for the first time. Lightly-raced enough to give me hope.
8- Elegante (Gonzalez/Spieth): Showed speed and faded over and over again at Tampa Bay. Her late pace figures are actually pretty good relative to her peers, so maybe this is the field for her.
9- Can’t Get a Date (Rogers/Dominguez): Debuting for a low tag usually isn’t a good sign to begin with, and her slow workouts seal the deal as a bet-against.
10- Allgotuptodance (Brooks/Gallardo): Takes a drop in class while leaving the Mike Trombetta barn. Showed more speed second time out, but her overall figure dropped. I’m willing to give her a shot to improve.
11- Excommunicate (Gentner/Pino): Got a much-needed belt-tightener last out at Woodbine, finishing third with an improved figure. Hit the board twice at this level last year.
12- Kukoo Kunuku (W Rice/Cox): Was in way over her head last out, but it did prep her for this race. Ran OK against much weaker last year, so I don’t know what to expect here.
TOP PICKS: 2-10-7